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A new PGA tour season gets underway this week and the first opportunity for players to earn valuable FedEx Cup points begins at the Frys.com Open. CordeValle hosts this tournament for the fourth consecutive year, and the 7,368 yard Robert Trent Jones Junior design has yielded winning totals of -15, -17 and -16 in this time.
As usual, the name of the game is to try and find links between recent winners here, and whilst 2010 winner Rocco Mediate was something of a shock victor, Bryce Molder and Jonas Blixt are both extremely strong putters and scramblers which has to be the main focus from a betting perspective this week.
Also worth considering are players with West Coast ties who can handle Poa Annua greens. Recent form can be taken with a pinch of salt as it’s been several months since the PGA tour last headed to the west coast and a large proportion of the field haven’t played competitively for four or five weeks. In fact, players who have graduated from the web.com tour may be at an advantage with their season only finishing two weeks ago.
Billy Horschel is a PGA tour player with more recent competitive golf to his name than most having made it all the way to the FedEx Cup finale at East Lake, and he didn’t make a bad fist of that either, finishing in a tie for 7th. Although I tend to swerve tournament favourites, Horschel looks every bit the most likely winner here in my mind coming off the back of a very successful season. He also has a very strong record at CordeValle having tied for 7th in 2011 and heading into the weekend in a tie for 2nd last time around. Horschel is a strong putter, ranking 2nd on the PGA tour in Total Putting last year, and there’s every reason to suggest he can get his season off to a winning start.
With only two wins to his name in over 12 years on the PGA tour, Charles Howell III certainly can’t be described as prolific, but he’s a remarkably consistent player who is seldom found the wrong side of the cut line. What I like about Howell is a combination of his strong putting (his rank of 17th in Strokes Gained Putting last season is his best to date) and a solid record on the West Coast (his most recent win came at Riviera in 2007 and he has a whole host of top-20 finishes since that time). In a relatively weak field Howell’s quality should shine through, and he looks a solid each-way bet this week.
Aaron Baddeley has struggled for consistency over the last couple of seasons, but we saw glimpses of form towards the end of last season where he notched a top-10 finish at the Canadian Open followed by a decent showing at the Barclays (which was tarnished by a poor final round). Baddeley makes his home in Arizona, and he certainly plays a lot of his best golf on the West Coast with two of his three PGA tour wins coming on this side of the country. The Australian certainly copes well on Poa Annua greens which is undoubtedly important this week. Indeed, his three best finishes of 2013 came on courses with Poa Annua greens, and a triple-figure price looks worth taking this week.
Having finished in a tie for 8th in the web.com Tour Championship two weeks ago, Jamie Lovemark has some positive inertia heading into the 2013-14 PGA tour season, and his victory at the Midwest Classic back in July will have done wonders for his confidence. The 25-year-old has been blighted by injury problems over the last couple of years, which explains his lack of consistency in his previous PGA tour starts, but the native Californian knows his way around CordeValle, and his local knowledge coupled with his strong putting stats (ranking 9th last year in Putting Average on the web.com tour) make him a very lively outsider here.
Another web.com tour graduate that catches the eye this week is Michael Putnam. Like Lovemark, Putnam’s previous ventures to the PGA tour don’t leap off the page, but he comes off the back of such a strong web.com season (two wins and a further seven top-10s) that it’s hard to see him struggling to keep his tour card this time around. Putnam was born and bred in Washington state, so he shouldn’t have any problems with the Poa Annua greens that can be found up and down the West Coast, and although his putting stats from last season aren’t quite as strong as I’d like, his rank of 16th in Scrambling is encouraging ahead of his trip to CordeValle.
Tips: Billy Horschel@20/1, Charles Howell III@50/1, Aaron Baddeley@100/1, Jamie Lovemark@100/1, Michael Putnam@150/1 - all each way 1/4 the odds first 5 places
As usual, the name of the game is to try and find links between recent winners here, and whilst 2010 winner Rocco Mediate was something of a shock victor, Bryce Molder and Jonas Blixt are both extremely strong putters and scramblers which has to be the main focus from a betting perspective this week.
Also worth considering are players with West Coast ties who can handle Poa Annua greens. Recent form can be taken with a pinch of salt as it’s been several months since the PGA tour last headed to the west coast and a large proportion of the field haven’t played competitively for four or five weeks. In fact, players who have graduated from the web.com tour may be at an advantage with their season only finishing two weeks ago.
Billy Horschel is a PGA tour player with more recent competitive golf to his name than most having made it all the way to the FedEx Cup finale at East Lake, and he didn’t make a bad fist of that either, finishing in a tie for 7th. Although I tend to swerve tournament favourites, Horschel looks every bit the most likely winner here in my mind coming off the back of a very successful season. He also has a very strong record at CordeValle having tied for 7th in 2011 and heading into the weekend in a tie for 2nd last time around. Horschel is a strong putter, ranking 2nd on the PGA tour in Total Putting last year, and there’s every reason to suggest he can get his season off to a winning start.
With only two wins to his name in over 12 years on the PGA tour, Charles Howell III certainly can’t be described as prolific, but he’s a remarkably consistent player who is seldom found the wrong side of the cut line. What I like about Howell is a combination of his strong putting (his rank of 17th in Strokes Gained Putting last season is his best to date) and a solid record on the West Coast (his most recent win came at Riviera in 2007 and he has a whole host of top-20 finishes since that time). In a relatively weak field Howell’s quality should shine through, and he looks a solid each-way bet this week.
Aaron Baddeley has struggled for consistency over the last couple of seasons, but we saw glimpses of form towards the end of last season where he notched a top-10 finish at the Canadian Open followed by a decent showing at the Barclays (which was tarnished by a poor final round). Baddeley makes his home in Arizona, and he certainly plays a lot of his best golf on the West Coast with two of his three PGA tour wins coming on this side of the country. The Australian certainly copes well on Poa Annua greens which is undoubtedly important this week. Indeed, his three best finishes of 2013 came on courses with Poa Annua greens, and a triple-figure price looks worth taking this week.
Having finished in a tie for 8th in the web.com Tour Championship two weeks ago, Jamie Lovemark has some positive inertia heading into the 2013-14 PGA tour season, and his victory at the Midwest Classic back in July will have done wonders for his confidence. The 25-year-old has been blighted by injury problems over the last couple of years, which explains his lack of consistency in his previous PGA tour starts, but the native Californian knows his way around CordeValle, and his local knowledge coupled with his strong putting stats (ranking 9th last year in Putting Average on the web.com tour) make him a very lively outsider here.
Another web.com tour graduate that catches the eye this week is Michael Putnam. Like Lovemark, Putnam’s previous ventures to the PGA tour don’t leap off the page, but he comes off the back of such a strong web.com season (two wins and a further seven top-10s) that it’s hard to see him struggling to keep his tour card this time around. Putnam was born and bred in Washington state, so he shouldn’t have any problems with the Poa Annua greens that can be found up and down the West Coast, and although his putting stats from last season aren’t quite as strong as I’d like, his rank of 16th in Scrambling is encouraging ahead of his trip to CordeValle.
Tips: Billy Horschel@20/1, Charles Howell III@50/1, Aaron Baddeley@100/1, Jamie Lovemark@100/1, Michael Putnam@150/1 - all each way 1/4 the odds first 5 places
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