NBA Betting . 11/14

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NBA

Hot teams
-- Thunder won four of its last five games. Warriors are 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 31-11-18 points.

Cold teams
-- Knicks lost four of their last six games; Houston lost three of last four.

Series records
-- Knicks lost their last seven games with Houston.
-- Thunder won seven of last eight games with Golden State.

Totals
-- Four of last five New York games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-3 in last twelve Thunder-Warrior games.

[TheGame]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, first half of the season
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% 2.9 units )

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at GOLDEN STATE
Play Against - Underdogs vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 105 points or more
177-47 over the last 5 seasons. ( 79.0% 69.3 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 2.0 units )

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at GOLDEN STATE
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in November games
110-59 since 1997. ( 65.1% 45.1 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% 1.6 units )

[TheGame]

Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Bettors following the Association this week have seen the pendulum swing back and forth at the betting counter. On Monday and Tuesday, favorites went 12-1 straight up and 10-3 against the spread. However, the ‘chalk’ train came to a halt on Wednesday as underdogs produced an 8-4 record against the spread and that included six outright victories.

In those upsets, none of the spreads were very high but we did have some struggling teams get over the hump. Utah knocked off New Orleans 111-105 last night for its first win of the season and Sacramento snapped a five-game losing skid as it defeated Brooklyn, 107-86.

The loss for the Nets dropped their road record to 0-4 on the season. Brooklyn has been favored in all four games and will finish its road trip this weekend with games against the Suns on Friday and Clippers on Saturday.

While the Nets haven’t been a sound investment this season, they still aren’t the worst bet. After 2½ weeks, Cleveland (1-8 ATS) has been a great team to fade, especially on the road (0-6 SU, 0-6 ATS).

Thursday’s slate will be highlighted with another double-header on TNT.

Houston (5-4 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) at New York (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS)

This series has been owned by Houston, who is 9-1 both SU and ATS in its last 10 encounters against New York. During this span, the Rockets have won and covered four straight at Madison Square Garden. Last season’s matchup in New York featured the return of “Linsanity” as former Knicks point guard Jeremy Lin made his debut as a Rocket at MSG. In that game, Lin dominated the Knicks with 22 points and nine assists as Houston cruised to a 109-96 win.

Fast forward to tonight and bettors might want to look at the fatigue factor since both clubs played on Wednesday. Houston was involved in an overtime battle at Philadelphia and unfortunately for the Rockets, they came up short in the extra session and lost outright as 6½-point road favorites to the 76ers, 123-117.

It was the second straight overtime game for Houston, who defeated Toronto 110-104 at home on Monday. The Rockets failed to cover as seven-point favorites and are now 0-4 ATS in their last four games. The issue lately for the Rockets has been their defense, which has allowed 111.8 points per game in the last six contests.

All-Star shooting guard James Harden (foot) sat out last night’s game in Philadelphia and is expected to be a game-time decision tonight.

New York was involved in a dogfight as well on Wednesday but it managed to hold off Atlanta 95-91 as a four-point road underdog. Carmelo Anthony scored 25 points and Andrea Bargnani finally shot well from the outside as he added 20 points.

Rest hasn’t been an issue for Houston this season. The Rockets have gone 2-0 both SU and ATS in back-to-back spots, winning both games by double digits and on the road too. The Knicks have only faced one back-to-back spot and they lost at Chicago 82-81 but covered as eight-point road ‘dogs.

Since beating Milwaukee 90-83 in the home opener on Oct. 30, New York has dropped three straight at MSG. During this home losing skid, the Knicks have allowed 109, 102 and 120 points. Two of those losses came to quality Western Conference clubs in Minnesota (109-100) and San Antonio (120-89) and most pundits would put Houston on par with those teams.

The Rockets opened as 1½-point road favorites with a total of 204½.

Oklahoma City (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) at Golden State (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS)

Oddsmakers opened the Warriors as three-point home favorites and the numbers was quickly pushed up to 4½ at most betting shops. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the number climb by tip-off.

Oklahoma City won’t have center Kendrick Perkins (personal) in the lineup and they could be without power forward Serge Ibaka because of a possible suspension. In last night’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers, Ibaka and the Clippers' Matt Barnes being ejected in the second quarter for a scrum. Not having Ibaka proved to be the difference for Oklahoma City, who led 62-53 at halftime. In the final two quarters, the Clippers outscored the Thunder 58-41 en route to a 111-103 victory.

Tonight’s matchup for OKC will be the middle game of a three-game road trip and the second game in two night. Following this tip, the team will travel to Milwaukee on Saturday before a six-game homestand. This will be the first back-to-back situation for Oklahoma City this season and it won’t be easy.

Golden State has gone 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS at Oracle Arena this season, which includes a 113-95 win over Detroit on Tuesday as a nine-point favorite. The victory came after the Warriors finished up a four-game road trip, which saw them go 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Despite the possibility of playing shorthanded and in a tough environment, the Thunder should be confident based on recent history. Oklahoma City took three of four meetings against Golden State last season, the lone loss coming in the Bay Area. The ‘over’ went 3-1 in those encounters as the Thunder posted 119, 119 and 116 in the victories but just 99 in the loss.

This season, OKC has gone 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season.

After this contest, Golden State will play a home-and home with Utah this weekend.

[TheGame]

8:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing Houston
New York is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston

10:30 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. GOLDEN STATE
Oklahoma City is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Golden State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oklahoma City
Golden State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

[TheGame]

Houston at NY Knicks, 8:00 ET
Houston: 15-28 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite
NY Knicks: 11-0 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog

Oklahoma City at Golden State, 10:30 ET
Oklahoma City: 16-5 OVER after playing a game as an underdog
Golden State: 19-6 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days

[TheGame]

Hoop Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

The Knicks are 10-0 ATS (9.20 ppg) since Mar 01, 2013 with at most one day of rest after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Rockets are 0-11 OU (-14.68 ppg) since Nov 27, 2004 as a favorite after a loss in which they attempted at least 10 more three pointers than their season-to-date average.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Warriors are 12-0 ATS (6.27 ppg) since Apr 03, 2013 after Stephen Curry was the Warriors’ high scorer.

CHOICE TREND:

The Warriors are 0-9 ATS (-8.56 ppg) since Nov 10, 2003 at home after a game at home in which they had at least 15 fewer shot attempts than their opponent.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

The Knicks are 0-8 OU (-9.75 ppg) since Dec 07, 2008 as a dog after a game in which their opponent shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than 25% of them.

The Knicks are 0-7 ATS (-5.29 ppg) since Apr 03, 2012 when their opponent is off an overtime game.