NBA Betting. 11/12

[TheGame]

NBA betting: Three ATS slam dunks for bettors

With the NBA season now two weeks old, it has been an interesting start as we have seen some good teams play poorly and some bad teams play very well. But as the league moves into its third week let's take a look at who some of the best teams have been when it comes to covering the spread.

Phoenix Suns (6-0-1 ATS)

No one in the NBA has had a hotter start to the season than the Phoenix Suns. The Suns lead the Pacific Division with a 5-2 SU record and are the only team in the NBA without a loss ATS. The Suns have been successful this season by being stingy on defense and efficient on offense. At the defensive end of the court the Suns are ranked in the top 10 in ppg, field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage. On offense the Suns are scoring 100.3 ppg which puts them 13th in the league and are shooting at a clip of 46.5 percent from the floor, which ranks ninth. The Suns next four opponents have a combined record of 10-14 ATS.

Indiana Pacers (5-2 ATS)

If not for a meaningless last second dunk by the Raptors Terrance Ross when the Pacers beat the Toronto 91-84 last Saturday, the Pacers would have covered and be 6-1 ATS to start the season. Indy is off to its hottest start in franchise history by going 7-0 SU and are the NBA's only remaining undefeated team. The Pacers are led by Paul George, who does everything. He is scoring 25.1 points per game, shooting almost 47 percent from the field to go along with 7.9 rebounds, 4 assists and 1.7 steals per game. But the Pacers do most of their damage at the defensive end of the court, where they rank first in points allowed per game, first in field goal percentage, sixth in rebounds and ninth in 3-point percentage. The Pacers next four opponents have a combined 7-15 record ATS.

Minnesota Timberwolves (5-2)

The Timberwolves have had a strong start to the season going 5-2 straight up and have covered the spread in five of their last six games. The Wolves have been able to do this because of their work on the offensive glass. They are currently seventh in the league in offensive rebounding and that is creating a lot of second chance opportunities for the Wolves who are averaging a league high 88.4 field goal attempts per game. Kevin Love seems to have regained his old form after an injury riddled 2012-13 campaign. Love is second in the league in ppg with 26.9 and leads the league in rpg with 14.4. The Wolves next four opponents have a combined 12-14 record ATS.


**All stats and numbers prior to Monday's action.

[TheGame]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Heat won three of last four games, are 1-3 as home favorites.
-- Mavericks are 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 9-12-19 points.
-- Golden State is only 4-3, but they're 2-0 as home favorites, winning by 31-11 points.

Cold teams
-- Bucks are 2-3 this season, but covered both games as road dogs.
-- Washington is 1-3 on road, losing by 11-10-1 points- they're 2-1 as a road underdog.
-- Pistons lost their last three games by 8-9-6 games.
-- Lakers lost five of their last seven games. Pelicans are 1-2 on road; underdogs won all three games.

Series records
-- Bucks lost six in row vs Miami, all by 11+ points.
-- Dallas won last six games vs Washington, but Wizards covered five of last seven series games.
-- Golden State won last four games with Detroit; underdogs covered last five series games.
-- Lakers lost by 11 in New Orleans Friday, its first loss to Pelicans in last ten meetings; New Orleans lost last five games at the Lakers.

Totals
-- Five of seven Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of six Washington games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total; four of last five Golden State games stayed under.
-- Last three New Orleans games stayed under the total.

[TheGame]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Play On - Road teams (WASHINGTON) an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games
63-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.5% 31.1 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

NBA WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (DALLAS) terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less
70-34 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.3% 33.1 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.4 units )

NBA WASHINGTON at DALLAS
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games
44-17 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.1% 25.3 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

[TheGame]

NBA Point Spreads and Picks
By: The Linemakers
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS - Check the NBA rankings of how teams have done against-the-spread and you’ll see the Sacramento Kings (0-5-1), Cleveland Cavaliers (1-7), Memphis Grizzlies (1-6) and Utah Jazz (1-6-1) at the bottom. Right above those struggling teams? The world champion Miami Heat, with a 2-5 ATS record.

Obviously the Heat are considerably better than those teams, but the point spread is the great equalizer, and a team’s ATS record is an indication of how it does against the expectations placed upon it.

This season, Miami covered its home opener against the Bulls, a game the Heat got motivated for as their NBA Championship banner was raised. They failed to cover their next three, losing two outright on the road. Then, they won and covered at Toronto, but failed to cover their last two.

Three times the Heat have been double-digit favorites, and all three times they’ve failed to cover. In fact, they’ve lost two of those games outright, including last Saturday night as a 13-point favorite to the lowly Celtics.

LeBron James has been dealing with back issues, but the two days off should help and he’s far from the real problem in Miami (he’s shot 61.7 percent over his last four games). As a team, Miami has shot 51 percent from the field, but the defense is allowing opponents to shoot 47 percent and the Heat are getting outrebounded by an average of 40-33.

LeBron on Heat defense: 'We've been playing like s---'

In theory, the Heat should still blow out the Bucks tonight. But that theory has been tried and tested, and for whatever reason, the Heat, off back-to-back championship seasons, just don’t seem motivated for November basketball. The Bucks may appear to be the perfect team for the Heat to take some frustrations out on, considering Miami swept Milwaukee in the first round of the playoffs last season and have won six straight over them, covering the number in five of those games.

The Bucks also have all kinds of injury issues right now, part of the reason the Heat are still favored by 14.5-points, but they still have O.J, Mayo putting up 18 points a night, Gary Neal (13.6 ppg) and Caron Butler (12.6 ppg), which has at least kept them competitive. The Bucks have covered three of their five games this season, including both on the road.

The Linemakers lean: Until we see the Heat cover a big number, and as long as big numbers keep showing up on their games, we'll keep taking the points against them. Bucks +14.5 is the play.

[TheGame]

Bucks at Heat: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (-14, 196)

The defending champion Miami Heat are having a tough time closing out victories, a trend they'll try to end when they host the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Miami has lost three of its first seven games - by a combined six points - and are coming off a 111-110 loss to Boston. The Heat won three of four meetings last season and have claimed four of the last five.

The Bucks have stumbled out of the gate too often, trailing by 16 and 25 at halftime of their last two road games and falling behind by 18 early in the third quarter of Saturday's 91-83 home loss to Dallas. "I'm tired of playing comeback basketball," Milwaukee coach Larry Drew told reporters. "I really am. It just takes too much out of you." The Heat have gotten typically strong production from LeBron James (24.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 8 assists) despite a nagging back problem but have struggled at the defensive end.

ABOUT THE BUCKS (2-3): Milwaukee isn't burning it up at the offensive end, but the Bucks are hitting from long range, ranking second in the league at 43.6 percent from 3-point range. Newcomer O.J. Mayo (18.6 points) leads four players averaging double-digit scoring, but the Bucks are short-handed in the post with forward Ersan Ilyasova sidelined with a sore ankle and defensive whiz Larry Sanders out following surgery on his right thumb. Even without Sanders' shot-blocking prowess, the Bucks have been one of the league's better defensive teams, holding opponents to 96 points per game and 44.3 percent shooting.

ABOUT THE HEAT (4-3): Miami has topped 100 points all seven games, the longest streak to start a season in franchise history, and leads the league in shooting at a 51.6 percent clip. James, Dwyane Wade (20.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists) and Chris Bosh (18.5 points, 6.7 rebounds) are all putting up big numbers. Things haven't been so rosy at the other end, though, as the Heat suffered a defensive lapse in the second half against Boston, allowing the Celtics to shoot 61.9 percent and giving up a game-winning 3-pointer by Jeff Green at the buzzer.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Miami.
* Heat are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Wade needs four blocks to tie Dennis Johnson (675) for the most in NBA history by a guard 6-foot-4 or shorter.

2. Bucks F Carlos Delfino announced on his personal website Sunday that his foot injury will require additional surgery and he is likely to miss the entire season.

3. James has scored in double figures in 502 consecutive games, including all 224 contests he has played for the Heat.