MLB 2014 Look Ahead. AL East Edition

[TheGame]

The World Champion Boston Red Sox.

Might as well start at the top.

Free Agents

Player	Pos	2014 Age	Former Contract
Mike Napoli	1B	32	1 yr/$13M (13)
Stephen Drew	SS	31	1 yr/$9.5M (13)
Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	30	1 yr/$9M (13)
Joel Hanrahan	RHP	32	1 yr/$7.04M (13)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	C	29	1 yr/$4.5M (13)
John McDonald	INF	39	2 yrs/$3M (12-13)

Boston bought from the bargain bin last year and then rode that from worse to first.
When you look at the above list. There is probably one guy they might look at as a keeper.
The problem is...
Other teams will view him as a guy they want and the second best player on the market after Cano.
Myself...
Depending on how your team is built, that ranking could change.
I think teams like the Angels, Rangers, Cubs, Cardinals to name a few would rate Ellsbury first.
There has been a few rumors out there that even a team like Seattle could be a player.

What might happen.
Boston goes all in to keep Ellsbury on the team.
For the most part they would return their 1 through 4 lineup in place.
They plug a platoon of Nava and Carp at first. Let Gomes go ahead and play left field on a regular basis.

The oh no plan...
Ellsbury books town.
It's no secret that the Angels are looking for pitching. It's also no secret that they are shopping Trumbo.
Boston probably has the bullets in their pitching holster to make a trade happen.
They send a closer and starter to the Angels. Now the Sox have the Napoli replacement in house.
Back to the bargain bin.
Get a 4th outfielder in case Bradley JR is not the guy.
Take the Ellsbury money and grab an impact bat and starting catcher at the same time in Brian McCann.

What will probably happen.
Winning the world series is a feel good moment for the team and their fans.
The first reaction is to keep the band together. The first problem is...
Teams might find your free agents worth more than you do.
At the end of the day you have to figure out who your willing to toss more dollars at.
That guy is going to be Ellsbury. Teams that have money and are not afraid to use it. Also they would have no problem fitting him into their lineup.
Teams such as the Yankees and Tigers come to mind.
Then you have a team like the Rangers who might want to go more speed than power...Since that approach netted zero world titles.

What I would do.
Go all in and sign Ellsbury.
The top 4 in that lineup is good at getting on base, making things happen, driving in runs and running up the pitch counts.
I like Nava and he needs a place to play on a regular basis.
Give him a shot to take over at first base. Napoli is what he is. A decent first baseman with pop and a backup DH.
The way the team is built now. He sits in NL parks in favor of Papi playing first and offers no other value.
Nava can play outfield so in the NL parks he could spell Victorino or whoever is in left.
Then in left field you have a guy like Gomes.
Nobody ever gives him a full time job. But the guy produces.
I would at least consider a platoon out there with him and possibly signing a Nate McClouth.
Red Sox also have Bradley jr they could give a look at and even consider a guy like Either from the Dodgers in a trade.
Hand shortstop over to Boegarts. Hope Middlebrooks is the 3rd baseman for years to come and bring back Salty to catch.
When you look at all the other teams in baseball. You see a lot of fits for a guy like Napoli.
Teams are going to set his price above what his market should be. So I would let him and the rest of the free agents walk.

[TheGame]

Baltimore Orioles
Player	Pos	2014 Age	Former Contract
Brian Roberts	2B	36	4 yrs/$40M (10-13)
Mike Morse	OF/DH	32	2 yrs/$10.5M (12-13)
Scott Feldman	RHP	31	1 yr/$7M (13)
Jason Hammel	RHP	31	1 yr/$6.75M (13)
Nate McLouth	OF	32	1 yr/$2M (13)
Francisco Rodriguez	RHP	32	1 yr/$2M (13)
Chris Snyder	C	33	1 yr

This team is close to being a championship contender. But there is one big giant piece of the puzzle missing.
When the playoffs start. The first question you here asked. Who is the game 1 starter...
For all the top teams that answer is pretty damn easy. But not when it comes to Baltimore.
They need more than anything "that guy"

I think when you look even further at this team. The lineup is pretty damn good and they should consider bringing back Nate.
The piece they miss there is a true everyday DH. You would think those guys are out there. But not really.
The biggest two that will reach the market are probably Napoli and Kendry Morales.
You can also argue they are in need of a second baseman. We know the obvious guy on any teams wish list.
But again this team needs a top of the rotation starter. So they would be hard pressed to get both.

What might happen.
They bring back Nate and keep the previous year lineup in tact for the most part.
Them along with other teams kick the tires on Cano. Don't like the price and move on trying to get that impact starter.
Getting the DH comes down to a bidding war for a guy like Morales or settling for a Napoli.
I think they settle for Napoli and possibly try and trade for a starter with some of their young arms.
The second base market after Cano is a big drop off. Of course it is.
So you have to look at a more realistic option from this list...
Omar Infante
Mark Ellis
Kelly Johnson
Looking at those free agents. My feeling is Infante will get overpaid by some team.
So the O's might have to consider looking at a trade to upgrade there.
If they get an impact bat at DH and a clear cut number one starter. Then you could see them stay in house or give a guy like Ellis a shot.

The oh no plan...
Morales is way over market price. Napoli takes less to stay in Boston and no team is willing to trade a starter.
Again you stick with a guy like Nate you know him and he has produced for you.
You wanted an impact DH. Maybe you settle for a guy like James Loney or kick the tires on Nelson Cruz.
You could do worse. But you see if Colon has one more year in him. Not a slam dunk #1 by no means.
But a guy that could handle big games if needed.
I think they have better options in house then Colon. But it wouldn't kill you if he pitched anywhere close to how he did this year.

What will probably happen.
If the money is equal around the leagues. Nate will stay put. I think there are two teams that are willing to pay up for him.
More on that when I get to those teams.
The best starter that might get traded is David Price. Unless they are floored by the offer. Hard to see them handing him over to a team in their division.
So they O's will have to go shopping. I think sticking with the Rays theme.
The O's lower the bar a touch and grab Matt Garza.
He pretty much stunk with the Rangers and lowered his asking price in the process.
Garza anything close to his form is the true #1 starter in Baltimore and would save a few coins for other pieces.
Second base becomes a platoon of Mark Ellis and an in house option.
The DH spot would seem the biggest need and they go all in on a guy like Morales.


What I would do.
I would at least kick the tires on a possible Trumbo deal. If your going to add a top starter.
Then you have an arm or two to deal.
What's so sexy about Trumbo. His age, raw power and reasonable contract for the next few years.
What's not. The asking price !
Teams don't like to trade starting pitching period.
Since it's my call.
I make the trade for Trumbo. The upside is he can also play corner outfield and first base.
If we get hit with an injury. It would be easier finding a DH, then finding the other spots on the field he can cover.
The Reds are shopping Brandon Phillips. I personally think they're looking to dump some payroll.
So placing a call to gauge the asking price wouldn't hurt. But again. I think there is a dark horse in the race for him and maybe two other teams.
We stick with Trumbo as our DH.
The market for a top starter begins and ends with David Price. My feeling is Tampa keeps him until July of next year.
That would be when they could get the most value. Teams with a shot tend to overspend at that time.
So forget about adding a starter via trade.
I guess I could easily be proved wrong. But I don't think even at a discount Garza is a big game pitcher.
Since I sent arms away for Trumbo. I'm going to add two here instead.
I'm willing to roll the dice on Ricky Nolasco as a potential #1 starter. Then add a guy like Tim Hudson coming off an injury.
If the market is softer than expected. I would also consider guys like Maholm, Haren and Santana on prove it deals.
Guys that can steal bases don't grow on trees. If Nate books I would go after a guy like Davis from the Jays.
Since I will be spending more on pitching. I would consider a guy like Stephen Drew for 2B and can give Hardy a blow at shortstop every now and then.

[TheGame]

New York Yankees
Player	Pos	2014 Age	Former Contract
Robinson Cano	2B	31	6 yrs/$57M (08-13)
Curtis Granderson	OF	33	6 yrs/$43.25M (08-13)
Hiroki Kuroda	RHP	39	1 yr/$15M (13)
Kevin Youkilis	3B/1B	35	1 yr/$12M (13)
Phil Hughes	RHP	28	1 yr/$7.15M (13)
Mark Reynolds	3B/1B	30	1 yr/$6M (13)
Brendan Ryan	SS	32	1 yr/$3.25M (13)
Boone Logan	LHP	29	1 yr/$3.15M (13)
Travis Hafner	DH	37	1 yr/$2M (13)
Joba Chamberlain	RHP	28	1 yr/$1.88M (13)
Lyle Overbay	1B	37	1 yr/$1.25M (13)

When you look at all the injuries this team had...
It was amazing they were in contention for as long as they were this season.
There are only 2 names on the free agent list that they should be focused on.
Cano and Kuroda.
The Yankees biggest obstacle will be how many teams enter the bidding for these guys.
You would think Cano would be the biggest attraction. But there will probably be more teams in on Kuroda.
Jeter and Tex will be back next year. The jury is still out on how many game ARod will miss.
The first thing the Yankees need to do after trying to sign their top 2 free agents...
Fill in the rotation and pick a closer.
They could stay in house for the closer job. But that job comes with a lot of pressure.
They might be best suited to go out and grab a guy that's been around for a few years.
Maybe a guy like Balfour or possibly Joe Nathan.
The rotation has a lot of question marks.
Is CC still the ace or is his struggles from 2013 the beginning of his decline.
I think the Yankees will look at a few middle of the rotation guys and possibly explore a trade or two.
They lack quality bullets on the farm to pull off a major trade and also they lack dollars.
The Yankees have stated their goal is to keep payroll under 189 million and avoid the luxury tax.
Not sure if Arods money would count against that number if he is suspended for an entire season.

What might happen.
Cano and Kuroda return. They let the rest of their free agents hit the street.
They will need a few bats. With the stink of ARod hovering around. Would they dare add any players who were busted before ?
Probably not.
When you look at the projected team and the possible suspension.
You can see there will be 3 holes needed to be filled.
DH
LF
3B
Again sounds funny to say this. But money is an issue. So they will be shopping from the bargain bin.
Jason Kubel is a guy looking for a one year prove it deal.
If you add him. Then you can pencil him in at DH or LF.
It would not be shocking to see them entertain a Raul reunion again for DH and the occasional LF start.
3B they could pick from the likes of Polanco, Bloomequist or Uribe.

The Oh no plan...
Cano leaves...
The upside is they could probably land multiple players now with extra scratch.
I would say if that happens and still available. They talk to the Reds regarding a deal for Phillips.
Not sure they have the players to pull that deal off. But they would at least kick the tires on it.

What will probably happen.
Cano and Kuroda stay.
The Yankees look to add the rest of the pieces from the bargain bin.
But will pay the tax for the right player.
I get that they might not want to add any questionable players. But some players that could really help them fall under that category.

What would I do.
I would tell myself the fans here hate Arod for many reasons. Not just the cheating aspect.
So I go and grab me Peralta and put him down at 3B
I'm looking for some pop and want to buy low.
Get me Corey Hart coming at a good price after sitting out last year.
Since my 3B and LF are filled and at a decent price. The last piece besides filling out the rotation.
Adding a DH and looking into a little pop at catcher.
A.J. Pierzynski played last year at 7.5 million. So that should probably be his market value for this season.
Bring him in and give him the starting job. Your current catchers are backups. Deal with it.
For the DH spot. If we added all the above we can afford to lower the bar here.
Michael Young is probably a good fit here. Besides playing DH you can use him all over your infield.
Whoever the closer is...
They will be the guy replacing on of the best in the business.
I don't think you hand that gig over to anybody who hasn't done the job for multiple years.
Nathan would be my first choice. He has pitched in a lot of high pressure spots and would be looking for only 2 years on his contract.
I think CC pitched injured to an extent last year so he should be fine.
Not going to spend a ton on pitching here. Fill out the rotation.
Play with the team that was just built. If things are going good. Then be ready to add payroll at the trade deadline.

[captjoe388]

The World Champion Boston Red Sox.

Might as well start at the top.

Free Agents

Player	Pos	2014 Age	Former Contract
Mike Napoli	1B	32	1 yr/$13M (13)
Stephen Drew	SS	31	1 yr/$9.5M (13)
Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	30	1 yr/$9M (13)
Joel Hanrahan	RHP	32	1 yr/$7.04M (13)
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	C	29	1 yr/$4.5M (13)
John McDonald	INF	39	2 yrs/$3M (12-13)

Boston bought from the bargain bin last year and then rode that from worse to first.
When you look at the above list. There is probably one guy they might look at as a keeper.
The problem is...
Other teams will view him as a guy they want and the second best player on the market after Cano.
Myself...
Depending on how your team is built, that ranking could change.
I think teams like the Angels, Rangers, Cubs, Cardinals to name a few would rate Ellsbury first.
There has been a few rumors out there that even a team like Seattle could be a player.

What might happen.
Boston goes all in to keep Ellsbury on the team.
For the most part they would return their 1 through 4 lineup in place.
They plug a platoon of Nava and Carp at first. Let Gomes go ahead and play left field on a regular basis.

The oh no plan...
Ellsbury books town.
It's no secret that the Angels are looking for pitching. It's also no secret that they are shopping Trumbo.
Boston probably has the bullets in their pitching holster to make a trade happen.
They send a closer and starter to the Angels. Now the Sox have the Napoli replacement in house.
Back to the bargain bin.
Get a 4th outfielder in case Bradley JR is not the guy.
Take the Ellsbury money and grab an impact bat and starting catcher at the same time in Brian McCann.

What will probably happen.
Winning the world series is a feel good moment for the team and their fans.
The first reaction is to keep the band together. The first problem is...
Teams might find your free agents worth more than you do.
At the end of the day you have to figure out who your willing to toss more dollars at.
That guy is going to be Ellsbury. Teams that have money and are not afraid to use it. Also they would have no problem fitting him into their lineup.
Teams such as the Yankees and Tigers come to mind.
Then you have a team like the Rangers who might want to go more speed than power...Since that approach netted zero world titles.

What I would do.
Go all in and sign Ellsbury.
The top 4 in that lineup is good at getting on base, making things happen, driving in runs and running up the pitch counts.
I like Nava and he needs a place to play on a regular basis.
Give him a shot to take over at first base. Napoli is what he is. A decent first baseman with pop and a backup DH.
The way the team is built now. He sits in NL parks in favor of Papi playing first and offers no other value.
Nava can play outfield so in the NL parks he could spell Victorino or whoever is in left.
Then in left field you have a guy like Gomes.
Nobody ever gives him a full time job. But the guy produces.
I would at least consider a platoon out there with him and possibly signing a Nate McClouth.
Red Sox also have Bradley jr they could give a look at and even consider a guy like Either from the Dodgers in a trade.
Hand shortstop over to Boegarts. Hope Middlebrooks is the 3rd baseman for years to come and bring back Salty to catch.
When you look at all the other teams in baseball. You see a lot of fits for a guy like Napoli.
Teams are going to set his price above what his market should be. So I would let him and the rest of the free agents walk.

I like Elsbury, but wouldn't go overboard to keep him. He always seems to be injury prone. They thought Middlebrooks was the future at 3rd, but so far he hasn't impressed. Pitching is good, I would say Uehara is an untouchable. As long as Big Papi keeps drinking from the fountain of youth, things will be good in Beantown again.

[TheGame]

I like Elsbury, but wouldn't go overboard to keep him. He always seems to be injury prone. They thought Middlebrooks was the future at 3rd, but so far he hasn't impressed. Pitching is good, I would say Uehara is an untouchable. As long as Big Papi keeps drinking from the fountain of youth, things will be good in Beantown again.

I think Ellsbury has to be in the neighborhood of what Dustin got.
Not sure if they're sold on Middlebrooks either. You see how much they had their future shortstop playing 3B in the biggest games

[TheGame]

Toronto Blue Jays
Player	Pos	2014 Age	Former Contract
Rajai Davis	OF	33	3 yrs/$7.75M (11-13)
Darren Oliver	LHP	43	2 yrs/$7M (12-13)
Josh Johnson	RHP	30	4 yrs/$39M (10-13)
Munenori Kawasaki	INF	32	1 yr/minors (13)
Ramon Ortiz	RHP	41	1 yr/minors (13)

The Jays were the darlings of many after the big trade they made last off season.
Well that didn't go as planned.
This seems to be the easiest of all the write ups to do.
I personally think they will do very little this off season.
My guess is they might shore up the pitching with some smaller moves.
Then hope everybody returns healthy and give the lineup another shot.
Injuries and some shaky pitching early on doomed this team.
They're probably at or close to as high as they want to be with payroll.

[TheGame]

Tampa Bay Rays
Player	Pos	2014 Age	Former Contract
Jesse Crain	RHP	32	3 yrs/$13M (11-13)
Fernando Rodney	RHP	37	2 yrs/$4.25M (12-13)
Roberto Hernandez	RHP	33	1 yr/$3.25M (13)
Jose Molina	C	39	2 yrs/$3M (12-13)
Luke Scott	OF/DH	36	1 yr/$2.75M (13)
Kelly Johnson	2B/OF	32	1 yr/$2.45M (13)
James Loney	1B	30	1 yr/$2M (13)
Jamey Wright	RHP	39	1 yr/$900k (13)
Delmon Young	OF/DH	28	1 yr/$750k (13)
Juan Carlos Oviedo	RHP	32	1 yr/$490k (13)

This has to be one of the best stories in years.
Every year they sell off or let big pieces leave.
Do some budget shopping and just keep contending.
I don't think baseball will ever work long term in Florida.
By the time the season starts. Most die hard fans have probably seen their fair share of exhibition games.
This team contends on a regular basis. But plays to a ton of empty seats on most nights.
The downside of that is of course a lack of revenue.

Last year they had to sell off on James Shield. They got good return for him.
But now it looks like David Price will be the next to go.
The biggest problem they face when trading is taking on salary. I mean that's why they are unloading guys to begin with.
So they have to try and find good young MLB ready talent. That is a lot easier said then done.
A team like the Angels would probably be willing to unload Trumbo, Kendrick and an outfielder to get a guy like Price.
The problem the Rays face again is money.
Same with the Dodgers. They would love to dump in a Kemp or Either in a move for Price...
But would they be willing to kick in the cash.

You have to look at it from the Rays view.
If a contending team cant sell tickets. What chance does a rebuilding one have at the box office.
If they unloaded Price now. Some team would be more than happy to send them a few top prospects.
Now if the Rays wait until the deadline. Maybe the asking price goes up or down.
Hard to say. If Price is dealing like he can at his best. Sure some team might be willing to pay up for that.
If he is average. Then of course the return goes down.
The other problem they face...Prospects now are just viewed on perception.
Once the season starts. Those prospects are putting up big numbers. Their value goes up.

If I had to guess. The Rays will shoot for the best of both worlds.
Keep David Price in the fold until the trading deadline. If they are a contender. Maybe they ride out one more year with him.
If not. Then they roll him out on the market and see what they can get.

This off season comes down to what they do with Price.
If they hold on to him. Then they probably do what they do best. Pickup pieces from the clearance aisle and hope for the best.
Now if they trade Price and get MLB ready players. Then of course the shopping list gets smaller.