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NBA Season Win Totals – Las Vegas makes big adjustment on Thunder
By: Marcus DiNitto
Sportingnews.com
With the NBA season tipping off Tuesday, the win total for the Oklahoma City Thunder has seen the biggest upward move at the LVH SuperBook, as oddsmakers have adjusted to news that Russell Westbrook may not miss as much time as originally anticipated.
When the LVH opened NBA win totals on Oct. 1, the Thunder were posted at 50.5 wins, an expected sharp decline from the 60 wins they tallied last season. Reports at the time said Westbrook would miss four to six weeks of the regular season. Westbrook is recovering from a torn meniscus in his right knee he suffered in OKC’s first-round playoff series against the Rockets last season.
“The morning (of Oct. 1) we were ready to open with 56.5, and then we got the news about Westbrook supposedly missing four to six weeks of the season, so we adjusted our opener down to 50.5 based on that,” SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “We’ve taken a little bit of OVER money on it, but he’s started to practice recently, so we moved them backed up to closer to where we going to originally have them.
“So most of that movement was based on Westbrook yes/no, that type of information. ... We don’t think he’s going to miss quite as much time as anticipated.”
When OKC’s win total was adjusted to 56, it drew some UNDER money, which prompted a move down to the current number of 55.5, Sherman said.
Public plays
As one may expect, a handful of public-adored teams have seen their win totals move up as well.
The adjustment on Chicago, from 56.5 to 57.5, however, also had plenty to do with the way they’ve played in the preseason. Derrick Rose is back on the floor – and playing well – after missing all of last season with a knee injury.
“The Bulls (move) was a combination of public money and the fact they looked pretty good in the preseason,” said Sherman. “They went undefeated in the preseason; Derrick Rose got some minutes and looked really good. We had some UNDER money too, but slightly more on the OVER.”
The Lakers’ opening win total of 33.5 caught the public’s attention, as they just can’t seem to fathom how far the team has fallen.
“The Lakers has been all public money on OVER,” according to Sherman. “People had a hard time believing we opened them at such a low number.”
The Warriors, Sherman added, have become a very public team.
“People like to support them in their individual games with the type of style that they play,” he said. “They got a lot of support in the playoffs last year. It’s been the public betting the OVER on their season wins.”
There’s also been plenty of public dollars on the Pacers and Nets OVERs, Sherman noted.
Betting the two-time champs
The LVH has booked good two-way action on the Heat’s season win total.
Miami opened at 60, were bet as high as 61.5, but UNDER money followed, and the number sits at 60.5 with the season about to tip off.
The Rockets, ‘one of the most heavily-supported teams’
With Dwight Howard added to the James Harden/Jeremy Lin mix, Houston figures to draw plenty of interest from the public, Shermam believes.
The SuperBook opened the Rockets at 54.5 wins and took OVER money that prompted a move to 55.5. Houston's total has since been adjusted to 55, but Sherman says the public will be on them night to night.
“The Rockets we opened somewhat high, because our feeling was they look like they’re going to be a really good regular-season team,” Sherman said. “The question mark might be in the playoffs – will Howard sustain getting to the free-throw line all the time, and just their defensive play – but I think the Rockets are going to be one of the most heavily-supported regular-season teams this season because they’re going to be involved in just about the highest OVER/UNDERs.
“Their inside-outside game is going to be fun to watch. So it’s not going to take too much time for the public to warm up to this team. So we opened up where I thought was relatively high, and we’ve basically seen two-way action, and I just kind of crept it up a little bit.”
Who are the sharps on?
Sharps, as their wont to do, have made some win-total plays that might confound the average NBA fan.
They’re betting OVER on the Bobcats, for years the league’s doormat. Charlotte won just 21 games last season, but drafted Cody Zeller, acquired Al Jefferson and hired Steve Clifford as coach, moves sharps evidently see as positives, as they’re playing OVER 27 wins.
There’s also been some sharp money on the Blazers and Raptors.
They’re going the other way on the Knicks, Nuggets and Suns, with Sherman saying sharps are “pretty heavy on the Nuggets UNDER.” And while the Knicks opened at 49, “we’ve seen mostly UNDER money.”
The Suns win total has plummeted recently from 21.5 to as low as 19.
“With them trading (Marcin) Gortat for a player who basically won’t be playing this season (Emeka Okafor, who is sidelined indefinitely with a herniated disc in his neck), all indications are they’re trying to catch up the 76ers for that worst record spot.”
Here are NBA season win totals posted at the LVH as the regular season begins. Opening numbers are in parentheses, if changed.
2013-14 NBA REGULAR SEASON WINS
HAWKS 40.0
CELTICS 28.0 (27.5)
NETS 53 (52.5)
BOBCATS 27.0 (27.5)
BULLS 57.5 (56.5)
CAVALIERS 39.5 (40.5)
MAVERICKS 44.5 (44)
NUGGETS 45 (47)
PISTONS 40.5 (41)
WARRIORS 51.5 (49.5)
ROCKETS 55 (54.5)
PACERS 55.0 (53.5)
CLIPPERS 56.5 (57)
LAKERS 34.5 (33.5)
GRIZZLIES 51.0 (49)
HEAT 60.5 (60)
BUCKS 29.5 (28.5)
TIMBERWOLVES 41.5 (41)
PELICANS 40.5 (40)
KNICKS 49.0 (49.5)
THUNDER 55.5 (50.5)
MAGIC 23.0 (24.5)
76ERS 16.5
SUNS 19.5 (21.5)
TRAILBLAZERS 39.0 (38.5)
KINGS 32.0 (31.5)
SPURS 55.5
RAPTORS 37.5 (36.5)
JAZZ 25.0 (27.5)
WIZARDS 40.5 (42)
By: Marcus DiNitto
Sportingnews.com
With the NBA season tipping off Tuesday, the win total for the Oklahoma City Thunder has seen the biggest upward move at the LVH SuperBook, as oddsmakers have adjusted to news that Russell Westbrook may not miss as much time as originally anticipated.
When the LVH opened NBA win totals on Oct. 1, the Thunder were posted at 50.5 wins, an expected sharp decline from the 60 wins they tallied last season. Reports at the time said Westbrook would miss four to six weeks of the regular season. Westbrook is recovering from a torn meniscus in his right knee he suffered in OKC’s first-round playoff series against the Rockets last season.
“The morning (of Oct. 1) we were ready to open with 56.5, and then we got the news about Westbrook supposedly missing four to six weeks of the season, so we adjusted our opener down to 50.5 based on that,” SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “We’ve taken a little bit of OVER money on it, but he’s started to practice recently, so we moved them backed up to closer to where we going to originally have them.
“So most of that movement was based on Westbrook yes/no, that type of information. ... We don’t think he’s going to miss quite as much time as anticipated.”
When OKC’s win total was adjusted to 56, it drew some UNDER money, which prompted a move down to the current number of 55.5, Sherman said.
Public plays
As one may expect, a handful of public-adored teams have seen their win totals move up as well.
The adjustment on Chicago, from 56.5 to 57.5, however, also had plenty to do with the way they’ve played in the preseason. Derrick Rose is back on the floor – and playing well – after missing all of last season with a knee injury.
“The Bulls (move) was a combination of public money and the fact they looked pretty good in the preseason,” said Sherman. “They went undefeated in the preseason; Derrick Rose got some minutes and looked really good. We had some UNDER money too, but slightly more on the OVER.”
The Lakers’ opening win total of 33.5 caught the public’s attention, as they just can’t seem to fathom how far the team has fallen.
“The Lakers has been all public money on OVER,” according to Sherman. “People had a hard time believing we opened them at such a low number.”
The Warriors, Sherman added, have become a very public team.
“People like to support them in their individual games with the type of style that they play,” he said. “They got a lot of support in the playoffs last year. It’s been the public betting the OVER on their season wins.”
There’s also been plenty of public dollars on the Pacers and Nets OVERs, Sherman noted.
Betting the two-time champs
The LVH has booked good two-way action on the Heat’s season win total.
Miami opened at 60, were bet as high as 61.5, but UNDER money followed, and the number sits at 60.5 with the season about to tip off.
The Rockets, ‘one of the most heavily-supported teams’
With Dwight Howard added to the James Harden/Jeremy Lin mix, Houston figures to draw plenty of interest from the public, Shermam believes.
The SuperBook opened the Rockets at 54.5 wins and took OVER money that prompted a move to 55.5. Houston's total has since been adjusted to 55, but Sherman says the public will be on them night to night.
“The Rockets we opened somewhat high, because our feeling was they look like they’re going to be a really good regular-season team,” Sherman said. “The question mark might be in the playoffs – will Howard sustain getting to the free-throw line all the time, and just their defensive play – but I think the Rockets are going to be one of the most heavily-supported regular-season teams this season because they’re going to be involved in just about the highest OVER/UNDERs.
“Their inside-outside game is going to be fun to watch. So it’s not going to take too much time for the public to warm up to this team. So we opened up where I thought was relatively high, and we’ve basically seen two-way action, and I just kind of crept it up a little bit.”
Who are the sharps on?
Sharps, as their wont to do, have made some win-total plays that might confound the average NBA fan.
They’re betting OVER on the Bobcats, for years the league’s doormat. Charlotte won just 21 games last season, but drafted Cody Zeller, acquired Al Jefferson and hired Steve Clifford as coach, moves sharps evidently see as positives, as they’re playing OVER 27 wins.
There’s also been some sharp money on the Blazers and Raptors.
They’re going the other way on the Knicks, Nuggets and Suns, with Sherman saying sharps are “pretty heavy on the Nuggets UNDER.” And while the Knicks opened at 49, “we’ve seen mostly UNDER money.”
The Suns win total has plummeted recently from 21.5 to as low as 19.
“With them trading (Marcin) Gortat for a player who basically won’t be playing this season (Emeka Okafor, who is sidelined indefinitely with a herniated disc in his neck), all indications are they’re trying to catch up the 76ers for that worst record spot.”
Here are NBA season win totals posted at the LVH as the regular season begins. Opening numbers are in parentheses, if changed.
2013-14 NBA REGULAR SEASON WINS
HAWKS 40.0
CELTICS 28.0 (27.5)
NETS 53 (52.5)
BOBCATS 27.0 (27.5)
BULLS 57.5 (56.5)
CAVALIERS 39.5 (40.5)
MAVERICKS 44.5 (44)
NUGGETS 45 (47)
PISTONS 40.5 (41)
WARRIORS 51.5 (49.5)
ROCKETS 55 (54.5)
PACERS 55.0 (53.5)
CLIPPERS 56.5 (57)
LAKERS 34.5 (33.5)
GRIZZLIES 51.0 (49)
HEAT 60.5 (60)
BUCKS 29.5 (28.5)
TIMBERWOLVES 41.5 (41)
PELICANS 40.5 (40)
KNICKS 49.0 (49.5)
THUNDER 55.5 (50.5)
MAGIC 23.0 (24.5)
76ERS 16.5
SUNS 19.5 (21.5)
TRAILBLAZERS 39.0 (38.5)
KINGS 32.0 (31.5)
SPURS 55.5
RAPTORS 37.5 (36.5)
JAZZ 25.0 (27.5)
WIZARDS 40.5 (42)
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