NBA Opening Night Betting Info. 10/29

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Defending NBA champs a bad bet in season openers

The Miami Heat bucked a long-running ATS trend last season, defeating the Boston Celtics 120-107 as 6.5-point home favorites on the opening night of the NBA schedule.

Before that victory, defending NBA champions were 7-3 SU but just 3-7 ATS in their first game of the season off a title run over the last 10 years. That win over Boston also snapped a six-game ATS skid for reigning NBA champs in their first game of the schedule.

Miami is back in that position again, taking on the Chicago Bulls as a 5-point home favorite to kick off the 2013-14 season Tuesday night.

Before the Heat won their opener last October, the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers (twice), Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, and the 2011-12 Miami squad fell short of the spread in their season debuts.

Going back another 10 seasons, between 1992 and 2001, defending NBA champions flexed their muscles in the season opener, going 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS. However, the Bulls (5), Houston Rockets (2) and Lakers (2) accounted for nine of those titles.

Oddsmakers have set the Heat as +240 favorites to win their third straight NBA title this season. Tuesday’s total is set at 187.5 points.

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NBA Betting: Opening Night Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (-4.5, 188.5)

Derrick Rose sat on the bench and watched the Chicago Bulls fall to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals last spring while recovering from knee surgery that kept him out the entire 2012-13 campaign. The Heat, who went on to win their second straight NBA Championship, will begin their title defense against a healthy Rose when they host the Bulls on Tuesday. Rose and Heat superstar LeBron James mark one of several intriguing matchups.

James and Rose combined to win the last five NBA MVP awards, with Rose stealing the crown from James in his last fully healthy season, 2010-11. The dynamic point guard could spend some time going up directly against James, who proved during the playoffs last season that he could guard all five positions on the court with little trouble.

LINE: The Heat opened s 5.5-point faves and are now -5. The total opened 187.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-13.3) - Miami (-15.0) + home court (-3.0) = Heat -4.7
TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in Bulls last 9 vs. Eastern Conference.

Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers (-12, 187.5)

The Indiana Pacers nearly ousted the Miami Heat in a stellar seven-game Eastern Conference finals last season and the goal is to dethrone the two-time NBA champions this time around. The task begins Tuesday when the Pacers open against the visiting Orlando Magic, a squad that struggled to a league-worst 20-62 record last season after dealing Dwight Howard. The Pacers open the campaign a man down after it was revealed Monday that swingman Danny Granger (calf) will miss at least three weeks.

Orlando is hoping to display improvement and is counting on rookie guard Victor Oladipo – the second pick of the 2013 draft – to excel immediately. The Pacers are on the other side of the equation with their fan base expecting a deep run that includes reaching the NBA Finals.

LINE: The Pacers opened -11 and are now -12. The total opened 187 and is up to 187.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Orlando (-1.0) - Indiana (-13.1) + home court (-3.0) = Pacers -15.1
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Indiana.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Los Angeles Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers (+8.5, 198.5)

The Los Angeles Lakers officially ruled Kobe Bryant out for Tuesday’s season opener, leaving the stage set for Doc Rivers and the rival Los Angeles Clippers. Rivers will spend his first game on the sidelines with his new team when the Clippers serve as visitors Tuesday in the arena they share with the Lakers. Bryant, who suffered a torn Achilles tendon toward the end of last season, is practicing with the team in a limited capacity.

Rivers made headlines over the summer when he jumped from the Boston Celtics to the Clippers, drawing criticism from Celtics fans while giving Clippers fans hope that the team can build on last season’s progress. The Clippers quickly re-signed Chris Paul and brought in J.J. Redick to help spread the floor for Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan inside.

LINE: The Clippers opened -8 and are now -8.5. The total opened 197 and is up to 198.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Clippers (-13.5) - Lakers (-4.6) + home court (-3.0) = Lakers +5.9
TRENDS:

* Clippers are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 9-0 in the last nine meetings.
* Home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

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7:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. INDIANA
Orlando is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Orlando
Indiana is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MIAMI
Chicago is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Miami
Chicago is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Miami is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. LA LAKERS
LA Clippers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games
LA Clippers are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Lakers are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games when playing LA Clippers

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Orlando at Indiana
Orlando: 13-8 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points
Indiana: 45-57 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points

Chicago at Miami
Chicago: 28-12 UNDER against Southeast division opponents
MIami: 36-21 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

LA Clippers at LA Lakers
LA Clippers: 12-3 OVER vs. division opponents
LA Lakers: 21-9 OVER vs. division opponents