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  • Reds at Pirates

    Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-130, 6.5)


    The Pittsburgh Pirates participate in their first postseason game in 21 years when they host the Cincinnati Reds in Tuesday’s National League wild-card game. Pittsburgh secured home-field advantage by sweeping a three-game series in Cincinnati and the winner of this one-game round meets the St. Louis Cardinals in the divisional round. The Reds are in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons but staggered down the stretch with five consecutive losses to match a season-worst skid.


    Cincinnati planned to start Mat Latos but scratched him due to elbow soreness and will instead go with Johnny Cueto, who has a stellar 8-2 mark with a 1.91 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 13 career starts at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park. The Pirates opted for left-hander Francisco Liriano, who struggled against the Reds this season with a 0-3 record and 3.70 ERA in four starts. Pittsburgh standout Andrew McCutchen (.317 average, 21 homers, 84 RBIs and 27 steals) had an MVP-caliber campaign while Cincinnati star Joey Votto (.306 average, 24 homers, 73 RBIs) set a franchise record by reaching base 316 times.


    TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS


    LINE: The Bucs opened as -120 home faves and have moved to -130. The total has remained at 6.5.


    WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow out to left field at 5 mph.


    PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Johnny Cueto (5-2, 2.82 ERA) vs. Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (16-8, 3.02)


    Cueto has excelled in two starts since returning from an injury and has allowed one earned run and eight hits in 12 innings. He blanked the Pirates on one hit over eight innings on May 31 and then went on the disabled list for the second of three times this season. Cueto is 13-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 21 career starts against Pittsburgh.


    Liriano has been fantastic at home, sporting an 8-1 mark and 1.47 ERA in 11 outings. Though he set a career best for victories, he struggled in September with a 1-2 record and 5.14 ERA in five starts. Liriano had a sharp outing against Cincinnati on Sept. 20 when he gave up two runs and three hits in eight innings while receiving a no-decision.


    TRENDS:


    * Reds are 0-5 in their last five overall.
    * Under is 5-0-1 in Cueto's last six road starts vs. Pirates.
    * Pirates are 0-4 in Liriano's last four starts vs. Reds.
    * Over is 4-1 in Reds last five playoff games.


    WALK-OFFS:


    1. Cincinnati 2B Brandon Phillips (shin) expects to play after being hurt while fouling a ball off his leg on Saturday.


    2. McCutchen is batting .231 with three homers in 39 career at-bats against Cueto, while Votto is 2-for-10 against Liriano.


    3. Pittsburgh won the season series, 11-8 – including a 5-4 mark at home.

  • #2
    W/L Trends

    Cincinnati
    • Reds are 8-1 in their last 9 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
    • Reds are 7-1 in their last 8 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
    • Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog.
    • Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
    • Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.
    • Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
    • Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
    • Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
    • Reds are 10-4 in their last 14 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Reds are 2-7 in their last 9 playoff games.
    • Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
    • Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a loss.
    • Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 overall.
    • Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games on grass.
    • Reds are 6-0 in Cuetos last 6 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
    • Reds are 5-1 in Cuetos last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Reds are 24-8 in Cuetos last 32 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
    • Reds are 13-5 in Cuetos last 18 starts vs. National League Central.
    • Reds are 14-6 in Cuetos last 20 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Reds are 35-17 in Cuetos last 52 starts.
    • Reds are 41-20 in Cuetos last 61 starts on grass.

    Pittsburgh
    • Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
    • Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
    • Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
    • Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
    • Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
    • Pirates are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    • Pirates are 19-7 in their last 26 Tuesday games.
    • Pirates are 13-5 in their last 18 games following an off day.
    • Pirates are 36-16 in their last 52 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
    • Pirates are 9-4 in their last 13 during game 1 of a series.
    • Pirates are 37-18 in their last 55 games as a home favorite.
    • Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 home games.
    • Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
    • Pirates are 5-0 in Lirianos last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
    • Pirates are 7-1 in Lirianos last 8 starts as a home favorite.
    • Pirates are 7-1 in Lirianos last 8 home starts.
    • Pirates are 5-1 in Lirianos last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
    • Pirates are 4-1 in Lirianos last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Pirates are 4-1 in Lirianos last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Pirates are 10-3 in Lirianos last 13 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Pirates are 5-2 in Lirianos last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
    • Pirates are 7-3 in Lirianos last 10 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

    OU Trends

    Cincinnati
    • Under is 6-1 in Reds last 7 during game 1 of a series.
    • Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
    • Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 on grass.
    • Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
    • Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 overall.
    • Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 games as a road underdog.
    • Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 road games.
    • Over is 12-3 in Reds last 15 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 playoff games.
    • Over is 12-3-1 in Reds last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Under is 26-10-2 in Reds last 38 games vs. a left-handed starter.
    • Over is 5-2 in Reds last 7 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
    • Over is 5-2-1 in Reds last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
    • Over is 5-2 in Reds last 7 games as an underdog.
    • Under is 29-12-1 in Reds last 42 Tuesday games.
    • Under is 6-0 in Cuetos last 6 Tuesday starts.
    • Under is 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Under is 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 starts with 7 or more days of rest.
    • Under is 6-1 in Cuetos last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Under is 12-3-1 in Cuetos last 16 starts during game 1 of a series.
    • Under is 3-1-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts as an underdog.
    • Under is 6-2-1 in Cuetos last 9 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
    • Under is 18-6-2 in Cuetos last 26 road starts.
    • Under is 24-8-1 in Cuetos last 33 starts overall.
    • Under is 3-1-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts as a road underdog.
    • Under is 15-5-1 in Cuetos last 21 starts vs. National League Central.
    • Under is 6-2 in Cuetos last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Under is 14-5-1 in Cuetos last 20 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
    • Under is 5-2-1 in Cuetos last 8 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.
    • Under is 7-3 in Cuetos last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Under is 33-16-2 in Cuetos last 51 starts on grass.

    Pittsburgh
    • Under is 5-1-1 in Pirates last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
    • Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
    • Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
    • Under is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 during game 1 of a series.
    • Over is 4-1-3 in Pirates last 8 Tuesday games.
    • Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Over is 4-1-1 in Pirates last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
    • Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
    • Over is 3-1-2 in Pirates last 6 games following an off day.
    • Under is 20-7 in Pirates last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    • Under is 16-7-1 in Pirates last 24 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
    • Under is 3-0-1 in Lirianos last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
    • Over is 5-2 in Lirianos last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.

    Head to Head

    • Under is 5-0-1 in Cuetos last 6 road starts vs. Pirates.
    • Under is 6-1-2 in Cuetos last 9 starts vs. Pirates.
    • Reds are 9-3 in Cuetos last 12 road starts vs. Pirates.
    • Reds are 5-2 in Cuetos last 7 starts vs. Pirates.
    • Under is 13-6-2 in the last 21 meetings in Pittsburgh.
    • Under is 17-8-3 in the last 28 meetings.
    • Reds are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
    • Pirates are 0-4 in Lirianos last 4 starts vs. Reds.

    Comment


    • #3
      MLB

      NL Wild Card game
      -- Cueto was on DL three times this year; he is 1-0, 1.50 in two starts coming off DL last time, 1-0, 1.46 in two starts vs Pittsburgh this season.
      -- Liriano is 1-1, 3.24 in his last four starts, 0-3, 3.70 vs Cincinnati this year.

      Reds lost their last five games, scoring a total of 8 runs. Pirates are 5-1 in their last six games; they're 11-8 vs Cincinnati this year, 5-4 at home.

      Reds are 41-41 on road this season. 27-25 vs lefty starters; Pittsburgh is 76-55 vs righties; they went 51-30 at PNC Park, which is hosting first-ever playoff game-- Pirates were last in playoffs in 1992.

      Under is 8-3 in Cueto starts this season, 6-3-1 in Liriano's last 10 home starts, 5-1 in last six Cincinnati games, 3-1 in last four Pirate games.

      Comment


      • #4
        Cueto
        Last 3 starts

        13.0 innings pitched
        Wins
        1
        Losses
        1
        ERA
        1.38
        Ks
        11



        Last 10 years Vs. Pittsburgh

        133.0 innings pitched
        Wins
        13
        Losses
        4
        ERA
        2.37
        Ks
        121



        Last 5 years vs. PIT hitters

        Pedro Alvarez .313 16 0 1
        Clint Barmes .200 10 0 0
        John Buck .000 4 0 0
        Marlon Byrd .545 11 0 0
        Josh Harrison .000 4 0 0
        Garrett Jones .294 34 1 2
        Andrew Lambo - - - -
        Starling Marte - - - -
        Russell Martin .111 9 0 1
        Andrew McCutchen .250 36 3 5
        Jordy Mercer .250 4 0 0
        Justin Morneau - - - -
        Felix Pie .000 2 0 0
        Gaby Sanchez .286 7 0 1
        Tony Sanchez - - - -
        Travis Snider .000 3 0 0
        Jose Tabata .000 8 0 0
        Neil Walker .208 24 0 3


        Liriano
        Last 3 starts

        19.0 innings pitched
        Wins
        0
        Losses
        1
        ERA
        3.79
        Ks
        19



        Last 10 years Vs. Cincinnati

        24.1 innings pitched
        Wins
        0
        Losses
        3
        ERA
        3.70
        Ks
        28



        Last 5 years vs. CIN hitters

        Jay Bruce - - - -
        Shin Choo-Soo .263 19 0 2
        Zack Cozart - - - -
        Todd Frazier - - - -
        Billy Hamilton - - - -
        Ryan Hanigan - - - -
        Jack Hannahan .286 7 0 1
        Chris Heisey - - - -
        Cesar Izturis .750 4 0 1
        Ryan Ludwick .500 6 0 1
        Devin Mesoraco - - - -
        Corky Miller .500 4 0 0
        Xavier Paul - - - -
        Brandon Phillips - - - -
        Derrick Robinson - - - -
        Henry Rodriguez - - - -
        Neftali Soto - - - -
        Joey Votto

        Comment

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