Here is a quick way to read an NFL boxscore and get an idea of whether the final margin matches the stats. We'll use last night's game -> KC 26 Philly 16.
Philly outgained KC on the ground by 9.3 to 4.0 ypc. KC outpassed Philly by 6.2 to 4.9 ypa - sacks & sack yardage included. Take the ypc margin and divide it in half, then add it to the ypa margin. In this game this gives you an edge for Philly, +1.35. Use a multiplier of 3.5 (not precise but pretty close) for that, and a 1.5-2 pt home field advantage. For a home team the average scoring margin is in the 6-7 point range. A net -5 in turnovers for Philly @3 pts per turnover turns that into an 8-10 point loss.
That's not letter perfect but its a darn good approximation of the final margin. In games where that is far off you'll usually see some goofy stuff - kickoff and/or punt returns for touchdowns, onside kicks, missed field goals, etc.
Hope you find it useful!
Philly outgained KC on the ground by 9.3 to 4.0 ypc. KC outpassed Philly by 6.2 to 4.9 ypa - sacks & sack yardage included. Take the ypc margin and divide it in half, then add it to the ypa margin. In this game this gives you an edge for Philly, +1.35. Use a multiplier of 3.5 (not precise but pretty close) for that, and a 1.5-2 pt home field advantage. For a home team the average scoring margin is in the 6-7 point range. A net -5 in turnovers for Philly @3 pts per turnover turns that into an 8-10 point loss.
That's not letter perfect but its a darn good approximation of the final margin. In games where that is far off you'll usually see some goofy stuff - kickoff and/or punt returns for touchdowns, onside kicks, missed field goals, etc.
Hope you find it useful!