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Reading the NFL Boxscore

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  • Reading the NFL Boxscore

    Here is a quick way to read an NFL boxscore and get an idea of whether the final margin matches the stats. We'll use last night's game -> KC 26 Philly 16.

    Philly outgained KC on the ground by 9.3 to 4.0 ypc. KC outpassed Philly by 6.2 to 4.9 ypa - sacks & sack yardage included. Take the ypc margin and divide it in half, then add it to the ypa margin. In this game this gives you an edge for Philly, +1.35. Use a multiplier of 3.5 (not precise but pretty close) for that, and a 1.5-2 pt home field advantage. For a home team the average scoring margin is in the 6-7 point range. A net -5 in turnovers for Philly @3 pts per turnover turns that into an 8-10 point loss.

    That's not letter perfect but its a darn good approximation of the final margin. In games where that is far off you'll usually see some goofy stuff - kickoff and/or punt returns for touchdowns, onside kicks, missed field goals, etc.

    Hope you find it useful!
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