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NFL Betting Info. Week 3

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  • NFL Betting Info. Week 3

    NFL Week 2 Recap
    By Kevin Rogers
    VegasInsider.com

    Two weeks are in the books inside the new NFL season with a few surprises so far. Only three teams are undefeated in the NFC (Seattle, Chicago, and New Orleans), while the Chiefs and Dolphins are among five 2-0 squads in the AFC. We'll take a look at how things transpired in Week 2.

    The Good

    New Orleans and Chicago each rallied with late scores to improve to 2-0, but neither team cashed tickets. The Saints overcame a failed goal-line opportunity and a pick-six by the Buccaneers to stun Tampa Bay, 16-14 as 3½-point road favorites. New Orleans picked up its all-important second divisional win in two weeks, as the Saints return home to host the Cardinals next week.

    The Bears came back from another second-half deficit at home to grab a victory, this time stunning Minnesota with a last-minute touchdown in a 31-30 triumph. Chicago pushed in its opener against Cincinnati, while failing to cover as six-point favorites in Sunday's one-point victory over Minnesota. The Bears hit the road for the first time in Week 3 with a trip to Pittsburgh on Sunday night.

    The Surprising

    Kansas City and Miami each didn't make the playoffs last season, but both clubs have jumped out to 2-0 starts. The Chiefs proved that the Week 1 blowout of lowly Jacksonville was no fluke, as Kansas City edged Dallas on Sunday, 17-16. Andy Reid's team didn't cash as three-point home favorites, but the Chiefs equaled their win total from last season already through two weeks.

    The Dolphins found a way to win their first two road games, beating the Browns and Colts as short underdogs. Miami avenged a loss at Indianapolis from last season, as the Dolphins edged the Colts, 24-20 as 1½-point 'dogs. Joe Philbin's club is one of three teams that is both 2-0 SU/ATS (Seattle and Denver).

    The Ugly

    The Redskins have turned into the biggest disappointment through two games, just one season after winning the NFC East title. Washington's defense has allowed 71 points in losses to Philadelphia and Green Bay, while getting blown out by the Packers, 38-20 as 7½-point underdogs. The Redskins closed the 2012 regular season with seven consecutive wins and covers, as Washington looks to get in the win column for the first time this Sunday against Detroit.

    Jacksonville has certainly clinched its spot as the worst team in the league after losses to Kansas City and Oakland. Things get even bleaker this Sunday when the Jags travel to Seattle as 19½-point road underdogs, as Jacksonville has scored just 11 points in two defeats. The only piece of good news for the Jags is the team covered all three times last season as a double-digit underdog.

    The Middle

    The Jets, Cardinals, and Titans have all split their first two games, but the three clubs have each cashed twice in the underdog role. New York pulled out an improbable win over Tampa Bay in the opener, while hanging with the Patriots throughout in a 13-10 loss as 11-point road underdogs last Thursday night. The Jets are listed as short home favorites against the rival Bills in Week 3.

    Arizona blew an 11-point lead in a road cover at St. Louis in Week 1, but rallied past Detroit in its home opener on Sunday, 25-21. The Cardinals head to the Big Easy on Sunday, which will be anything but against the 2-0 Saints.

    Tennessee won at Pittsburgh in the season opener as six-point underdogs, while blowing a fantastic opportunity in an overtime loss at Houston in Week 2. The Titans are turning into a good value play through two weeks, but will be listed as a favorite for the first time this season when the Chargers play their second straight road game in Nashville in Week 3.

  • #2
    NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report
    By JASON LOGAN

    Oddsmakers are spreading it on thick in Week 3 of the NFL season, thanks to some lopsided matchups on schedule.

    The NFL’s top two teams – Denver and Seattle – take on two of its worst – Oakland and Jacksonville – forcing oddsmakers to pile on the points. The Broncos opened as high as -16.5 hosting the Raiders Monday night while the Seahawks are as high as -20 welcoming the Jaguars to CenturyLink Field Sunday.

    “These numbers are made to keep the games equal,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “You treat them just like any other game on the schedule. They just are what they are.”

    Double-digit spreads are rare in the parity of the NFL, and two-touchdown chalk is like finding two prizes inside a box of cereal. But getting an NFL spread in the 20-point range is like seeing Big Foot riding a Unicorn through the Lost City of Atlantis. It’s pretty rare.

    The 2011 Indianapolis Colts were 20.5-point underdogs visiting the New England Patriots in Week 13 of that season. The Manning-less Colts put up a good fight, losing 31-24 with QB Dan Orlovsky at the helm.

    “At this level of points, it will reduce some of the money on this game because people won’t want to get involved,” says Korner, who originally sent out Jacksonville as a suggested 16-point underdog. “I think people will take Jacksonville on a flyer and hope they get a touchdown or two.”

    As for the Oakland-Denver matchup, early action has actually taken this spread down a bit, dropping the line from Broncos -16.5 to -14 as of Monday morning. Denver has been impressive in its first two wins, blowing out the Ravens and Giants, while Oakland narrowly lost to the Colts in Week 1 and defeated the Jaguars this past Sunday.

    “We’re sending this out trying to overcompensate for the favorite,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Denver 16. “What has Denver done to make us think they won’t play Oakland any different? They’ve done everything right and have clobbered their first two opponents. What’s not to like about Denver.”

    “I don’t know how this made it to a Monday Night Football game,” he says. “An old rivalry like this isn’t going to attract people with the way things are going. But having a pointspread on a game like this will attract people. Even if it is this big.”

    Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50)

    The return of the Walrus - goo goo g'joob - headlines the Thursday nighter, with new Chiefs coach Andy Reid coming back to Philadelphia.

    Korner says that while the Eagles are running a different offense and defense, Reid still knows their players better than any coach in the league. He had his oddsmakers suggesting this spread as low as Philadelphia -1.5 before sending out Eagles -3.

    “You have to figure Kansas City has the edge,” he says. “There is an incentive for Kansas City’s players to play for their coach. That’s worth more than the Eagles playing against one man. The Chiefs look strong and have a great shot of winning this game. They're something new and more of a mystery to Philadelphia. I don’t see it going to -3.5.”

    Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44)

    Oddsmakers are buying into Miami’s 2-0 start to the season, making them home favorites against the Falcons Sunday. The Dolphins knocked off Indianapolis on the road in Week 2 and Korner admits he wasn’t giving Miami much credit to start the season.

    “We had it around -2.5 for Miami,” he says. “Atlanta is a capable team but they match up well against each other. You’re basically looking at home-field advantage with this one. (The Dolphins) kind of snuck up on me. My thoughts are much different now.”

    Comment


    • #3
      KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/19/2013, 8:25 PM

      Top Trends for this game.
      PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
      PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      PHILADELPHIA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
      PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
      PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      PHILADELPHIA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
      PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


      KANSAS CITY vs. PHILADELPHIA
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
      Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
      Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games


      Kansas City at Philadelphia
      Kansas City: 14-5 Under off an Under
      Philadelphia: 0-8 ATS in home games

      Comment


      • #4
        NFL Week 3

        Chargers (1-1) @ Titans (1-1) —
        Second straight trip east for Bolts, who split pair of 3-point decisions as underdogs in first two games, despite allowing 30+ points in both games- they’ve won nine in a row vs Tennessee, waxing Titans 38-10 in Week 2 LY at Qualcomm (TY 418-212). Chargers are 17-29 on 3rd down thru two games, with WR Royal scoring five TDs already. After facing prolific passers Schaub/Vick, Locker is going to be change of pace; in splitting pair of road games (lost in OT at Houston last week), Titans gained only 229-248 yards, but have seven sacks (+2 and four takeaways (+4), while running ball for 115.5 yards/game, with no giveaways. Tennessee is 4-5 as home favorite under Munchak, 3-5 as a favorite in home openers. Bolts are now 7-2 vs spread in last nine tries as a road dog. Home favorites in non-divisional games are 5-6-1 vs spread thru first two weeks of season.

        Browns (0-2) @ Vikings (1-1) — Cleveland QB Weeden (thumb) likely out here; journeyman Campbell likely replacement- he’s at least as good as Weeden; in their first two games, Browns averaged less than five yards/pass attempt and ran ball for total of just 112 yards on 33 carries- they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as road dog after shutting Ravens out in first half last week, but losing 14-6 (+6.5) in Maryland. Minnesota is 2-3 in last five home openers, 0-5 vs spread (0-4 as favorite); they scored TD on both defense/special teams last week, still lost 31-30 after kicking FG on all three trips to red zone. Vikes turned ball over seven times (-1) in two games, had 15-yard deficit in field position both games- they’re 3-5-1 as home favorites under Frazier, are 11-20-1 vs spread vs AFC teams the last eight years. Browns were outscored 31-3 in second half of their first two games.

        Buccaneers (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0) — Curious to see Pats’ passing game 10 days after dismal showing vs Jets; their two wins are by total of five points, with NE averaging just 5.1/4.5 yards/pass attempt. Edelman caught 13 passes last week for 78 yards, not exactly Jerry Rice, but Brady was 6-21 targeting anyone else. Bucs’ two losses are by total of three points, both in last 0:10- they’ve had 23 penalties for 220 yards in two games and S Goldson is suspended for this game. Since ’09, Tampa is 18-11-1 as road dogs, 5-2 under Schiano. NE is 5-2 in this series, winning last two meetings 28-0/35-7; Bucs lost two of three visits here, but haven’t visited since ’05- they completed less than half their passes in both games so far this year, as rumors circulate that QB Freeman will walk after this year. These teams practiced against each other summer for few days before their (meaningless) exhibition game, so there is some familiarity.

        Comment


        • #5
          Brandon Weeden (thumb) has been ruled out of Sunday's Week 3 game against the Vikings.
          Per NFL Network, an MRI on Weeden's throwing thumb showed no long-term damage. He'll take a week of rest and then the Browns will reevaluate him ahead of a Week 4 game against the Bengals. Brian Hoyer will start against Minnesota.

          Coach Gary Kubiak confirmed that Andre Johnson (concussion) is expected to play in Sunday's game against the Ravens.
          Johnson's Week 2 concussion was clearly of the mild variety. He was cleared to do physical activity on Monday and is making this way through the league's protocol rapidly.

          The "plan" is for Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) to play in Sunday's game at Seattle.
          Per NFL Network, Jones-Drew is "good" despite sustaining a foot tendon sprain in Week 2.

          Comment


          • #6
            NFL
            Short Sheet

            Week 3

            Sunday, September 22nd, 2013

            San Diego at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
            San Diego: 21-3 ATS vs. AFC South opponents
            Tennessee: 6-0 Over after allowing 400+ total yards

            Cleveland at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
            Cleveland: 18-7 Under in dome stadiums
            Minnesota: 8-1 ATS off a road game

            Tampa Bay at New England, 1:00 ET
            Tampa Bay: 3-11 ATS off BB losses
            New England: 10-2 ATS off a division game

            Houston at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
            Houston: 8-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
            Baltimore: 21-8 Under vs. AFC South opponents

            St. Louis at Dallas, 1:00 ET
            St. Louis: 4-16 ATS off BB games gaining 75 or less rushing yards
            Dallas: 25-12 Over at home off BB ATS wins

            Arizona at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
            Arizona: 6-0 Under away off a win
            New Orleans: 14-4 ATS in home games

            Detroit at Washington, 1:00 ET
            Detroit: 14-4 Over in road games
            Washington: 11-25 ATS at home in September

            Green Bay at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
            Green Bay: 10-2 Over off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
            Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS off a win by 10+ points

            NY Giants at Carolina, 1:00 ET
            NY Giants: 23-10 ATS off a combined score of 60+ points
            Carolina: 23-10 Under at home in the first month of the season

            Atlanta at Miami, 4:05 ET
            Atlanta: 17-5 ATS off BB games allowing 400+ total yards
            Miami: 0-8 ATS off BB road wins

            Indianapolis at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
            Indianapolis: 26-6 Over off a SU loss as a home favorite
            San Francisco: 14-5 ATS in home games

            Jacksonville at Seattle, 4:25 ET
            Jacksonville: 5-14 ATS off an Under
            Seattle: 8-1 ATS in home games

            Buffalo at NY Jets, 4:25 ET
            Buffalo: 30-11 ATS off a win by 3 points or less
            NY Jets: 2-13 ATS off a SU road loss / ATS win

            Chicago at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET NBC
            Chicago: 18-33 ATS after scoring 30+ points
            Pittsburgh: 19-8 ATS at home off a division loss

            Comment


            • #7
              NFL

              Week 3

              Trend Report

              Sunday, September 22

              1:00 PM
              HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
              Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
              Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
              Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
              Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston

              1:00 PM
              DETROIT vs. WASHINGTON
              The total has gone OVER in 14 of Detroit's last 19 games on the road
              Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
              Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Detroit

              1:00 PM
              NY GIANTS vs. CAROLINA
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Carolina
              NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
              Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
              Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

              1:00 PM
              ARIZONA vs. NEW ORLEANS
              Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
              Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
              New Orleans is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Arizona
              New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona

              1:00 PM
              GREEN BAY vs. CINCINNATI
              Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
              Green Bay is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
              Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

              1:00 PM
              SAN DIEGO vs. TENNESSEE
              San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing San Diego

              1:00 PM
              TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ENGLAND
              Tampa Bay is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
              The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 10 games at home
              New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games

              1:00 PM
              ST. LOUIS vs. DALLAS
              St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Dallas
              Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

              1:00 PM
              CLEVELAND vs. MINNESOTA
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
              Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
              Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

              4:05 PM
              ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
              Atlanta is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
              Miami is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

              4:25 PM
              INDIANAPOLIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
              Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
              The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco's last 9 games
              San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

              4:25 PM
              JACKSONVILLE vs. SEATTLE
              Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
              Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
              Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
              The total has gone OVER in 15 of Seattle's last 23 games at home

              4:25 PM
              BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
              Buffalo is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
              NY Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo

              8:30 PM
              CHICAGO vs. PITTSBURGH
              The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
              Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
              Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
              Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

              Comment


              • #8
                Chiefs at Eagles
                By Kevin Rogers
                VegasInsider.com

                There will be plenty of interest in Philadelphia on Thursday night as Andy Reid makes his triumphant return to the sidelines at Lincoln Financial Field. However, the former Eagles' coach will be the visitor for the first time after getting fired by Philadelphia in January and taking over as the head man in Kansas City a few weeks later. The Chiefs look to improve to 3-0 with a victory, while the Eagles try to get on track after their defense was shredded by San Diego.

                Kansas City cruised past hapless Jacksonville in the season opener, 28-2 as 3½-point road favorites, but obviously had a tougher time in Week 2. The Chiefs' home opener went back and forth against the Cowboys, but Kansas City held off Dallas, 17-16, to equal its win total from a season ago in just the second week of the season. However, the Chiefs couldn't cash as three-point favorites, while finishing 'under' the total of 45 by holding the Cowboys to three field goals, including two of 50 yards or more.

                The Eagles made waves in Week 1 with their fast tempo in a 33-27 victory over the Redskins, even though the final score was misleading. Philadelphia led Washington, 26-7 at the half as Chip Kelly's offensive approach tired the Redskins out, while LeSean McCoy carried the load on the ground with 184 yards rushing. The Eagles scored plenty of points this past Sunday against the Chargers, but San Diego torched Philadelphia's defense for 539 yards in a 33-30 triumph as 7½-point road underdogs.

                Philadelphia racked up more than 500 yards of offense, but the Eagles allowed 33 first downs and McCoy was limited by San Diego's defense to only 53 yards on the ground. Also, the Bolts controlled the clock by owning nearly a 2/1 edge in time of possession (40:17). The Eagles have eclipsed the 'over' in each of the first two games, improving to 7-1 to the 'over' in regular season contests since last November. However, Philadelphia owns a dreadful 1-8 ATS record the last nine games at Lincoln Financial Field.

                The Chiefs struggled in the role of a road underdog last season by covering just twice in eight opportunities, while losing six times by double-digits. After posting a 5-0 ATS mark as an underdog of three points or less in 2011, the Chiefs failed to cash in three chances last season when receiving three points or fewer. Since 2010, Reid has put together a 7-4 ATS record as an away 'dog, including a 3-3 ATS mark as a road 'dog of three points or less.

                Philadelphia's covering woes at home was mentioned earlier, but this club has won only five of its last 20 games at Lincoln Financial since December 2010. However, the Eagles own a 10-2 mark at home against AFC competition since 2007, while covering just two of their past seven in this situation. The 'over' streak is remarkable at home, sitting at seven straight, while the Eagles' defense has allowed at least 26 points in each of the last seven contests at the Linc.

                The AFC has dominated the NFC so far in interconference action through the first two weeks with a 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS record. AFC underdogs own a 3-0-1 ATS record as the Jets, Bills, and Chargers have covered and won outright when receiving points against NFC foes.

                The Eagles are listed as three-point favorites at most spots, while the total is set at 51. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen nationally on the NFL Network.

                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL Week 3

                  Chiefs (2-0) @ Eagles (1-1) —
                  Reid coached Philly for the last 14 years, was fired LY, now he returns home at 2-0 for just second time as a HC.. Eagles on short week for second week in row; Monn-Sun-Thurs start is tough scheduling spot, though last two games were at Linc. KC won its first two games without turning ball over (+4) and allowing just 108 yards on 39 rushes. Philly defense allowed 53 points in its last six quarters; Chargers were 10-15 on 3rd down last week and gained 539 yards. Eagles are now 6-13 vs spread in last 19 games as home favorite, 6-11 in last 17 vs AFC teams- they won last three series games, by 13-6-20 points, but AFC West teams are 7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games thru first two weeks of season. Chiefs were 2-6 as road dogs LY, after being 21-13 the five years before that. Weird doing trends for this game, since all the Eagle trends actually refer to the Chiefs’ new coach.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    DAVE ESSLER

                    Week Three NFL Thoughts

                    San Diego-Tennessee: It might be time to fade the Chargers for the simple fact that it may not be too late to jump on the Titans bandwagon, but more importantly the Chargers have got to be a bit tired, opening on a Monday and playing two East Coast games back to back.

                    Cleveland-Minnesota: I'd probably just follow the late money, if there is anything telling. Simply cannot call Ponder v Weeden here. And because the under looks too easy, I am waiting that one out, too.

                    Tampa Bay-New England: Already gave thoughts on this one several times. Best bet was probably under, but the good (great) numbers are long gone and probably won't be back. I still think there's some value to the Bucs.

                    Houston-Baltimore: Obviously the health and status of Ray Rice and Andre Johnson are waiting for, and Ed Reed is listed as doubtful. If one were to assume they both played, I'd lean over here (but haven't looked at the weather forecast). Timing will be everything here with respect to the best number(s).

                    Rams-Cowboys: Almost tempted to put in a Cowboys 1H bet given the way the Rams have fallen behind in both games, yet came back to win one and make a game of another. Since both teams do have decent defenses, and both offenses are mistake-prone, the under is not out of the question.

                    Arizona-New Orleans: Lots of respect given here to both defense with that total opening and still sitting at 48.5. If it ticks down anytime soon I'd lean under, and I just don't like either side. Yet.

                    Detroit-Washington: It seems like the Lions are the popular play here, but I still don't trust Schwartz or the Lions emotional state. Not having played in Arizona and lost a lead late. The Redskins defense has way underperformed, but how much of that was being not prepared for what the Eagles would do, and of course the wrath of the Packers after a loss. So, I am trying to build a case for Washington here.

                    Green Bay-Bengals: See Ivey Walters. I had a slight lean to the Bengals, only because getting over the hump of being the chalk on a Monday night might mean something.

                    Giants-Panthers: I know that people are lining up on the Giants, but I am not. Cannot take a team that's turned the ball over 10 times in two games. Panthers played Seattle tough, and lost a game at Buffalo I actually thought they would, or at least wouldn't be as easy as some thought. Bills playing with heart, so, I lean Panthers here.

                    Colts-49ers: The tendency here is to assume the 49ers are coming in pissed, and I am sure they are. But, can they get back after after such a public beatdown. My biggest problem trying to take the generous points is the Colts defense, which has been fairly porous, all things considered. I'd like to think this stays under, too, because I don't see the Colts scoring a ton. Too reliant on Wayne.

                    Jacksonville-Seattle: Welp, there's not much to be said about this one. Just a matter of whether the Seahawks want to name the score or not.

                    Buffalo-Jets: I'm still sold on Buffalo as being at least a serious team to bet on, but with the Jets having the extra time and being at home it's tough to come down one way or the other. Manuels' first road start, but he does appear to be in control of his emotions. I like the Bills defense much better, and think it'd probably be the Bills if you made me today.

                    Chicago-Pittsburgh: So the Bears win ugly and the Steelers do what many expected them to. I still have to think if I could get +3 at home with the Steelers I'd have to take it, and although both teams are "known" for defense, I can see this one being a shootout, and lean over.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Inside The Stats
                      by Marc Lawrence

                      Red rover, red rover

                      As we alluded to last week, with no-huddle, quicker pace, and lots more offensive snaps per game being the new wave in the NFL these days, totals were expected to reach new heights.

                      Not so thus far this season, as over/unders evened out at 8-8 once again last week, bringing the count to 16 Overs and 16 Unders on the season.

                      Interestingly, seven of the eight games that went Over involved the eight teams that had the most offensive plays in their contests, namely: Bengals (79 plays), Chargers (79), Texans (78), Panther (76), Bills (730, Rams (73), Broncos (72) and Colts (72).

                      Coupled with a 6-1 Over result involving the same premise in Week 1, it makes keeping an eye on this trend mandatory if you are a totals enthusiast.

                      Stat of the Week

                      The Detroit Lions are 0-16 SU all-time in games against the Redskins in Washington, by an average losing margin of 18 points per game.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Where the Action is: NFL Mid-Week Line Moves

                        Week 3 of the NFL schedule has been a busy time for books. With oddsmakers and football bettors getting a better handle on the league, those opinions are coming into play and have multiple lines on the move as the weekend draws closer.

                        We talk to sportsbooks, both online and in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the NFL Week 3 board.

                        Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: +1, Move: +3

                        The Bengals’ win on Monday did little to impress bettors, who have driven this number as high as a field goal at some books. According to Jay Rood, Vice President of race and sports at MGM, nearly 98 percent of the early money is on the Packers.

                        “It’s been all Packers and we’re likely going to follow the pack and go to -2.5,” Rood, who opened Green Bay -2, told Covers. “Outside of a small bet on the Bengals, it’s been all Green Bay on straight-up bets, teasers, and parlays.”

                        Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -3.5, Move: -6.5

                        Cleveland is going with third-string QB Brian Hoyer Sunday after No. 1 Brandon Weeden suffered a thumb injury against Baltimore last week. On top of that, the Browns traded RB Trent Richardson to the Colts Wednesday night. That’s pushed this spread a field goal and could continue to add points to the line.

                        “With a healthy Weeden, they average a poultry 5.8 yards per completion - ranked 28th in NFL. And now with the announcement that Brian Hoyer is getting the start ahead of Jason Campbell, I can’t see how Cleveland is going to move the ball,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook.

                        Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5

                        This game opened as low as a pick but money is siding with the Redskins and has moved the spread a near field goal as of Wednesday afternoon.

                        “There is a lean toward Washington but the sharps haven’t tipped their hand on this one,” says Rood. “The public is hooking up on Washington and the Over.”

                        Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints – Open: -9.5, Move: -7

                        The Cardinals have been better than expected in the first two weeks of the season and money on Arizona has echoed that sentiment, with almost all the action taking the road team down as low as a touchdown underdog. Rood believes some football fans aren’t quite sold on New Orleans as a contender just yet.

                        “They’re like any other team adjusting to a new head coach,” he says. “There are a lot of players on the Saints that haven’t played under (head coach Sean) Peyton. And he’s coming back with a new eye for this team. It’s kind of like the Saints have had three head coaches in three years. It’s going to take some time. This team right now will be completely different come Week 10 or 11.”

                        Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins – Open: Pick, Move: -3

                        The Dolphins are the wiseguys’ choice this week, moving this spread as many as three points at some books. According to Rood, the MGM Mirage took a limit play on Miami ($30,000) Wednesday morning, forcing them to move the line from Dolphins -1.5 to -2.5.

                        “The public money, however, is all over the Falcons on straight-up bets and parlays,” says Rood. “This is a classic matchup of sharps versus public. We don’t want to go to Miami -3 right away but could if the sharps keep pushing it.”

                        Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -16.5, Move: -20

                        Some books were bet up to this monstrous spread while others boldly opened Seattle as a 20-point favorite hosting the lowly Jaguars Sunday. According to Childs, the early money came from sharps who gladly laid the 17 points. When the public got involved, they jumped from -18 straight to -20.

                        “Since going to 20, we’ve actually written nice two-way action on this game, so I can’t see us moving off that number any time soon,” he says.

                        Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -16.5, Move: -14

                        At first glance, this spread may not be enough. Denver has been dominant through its first two games but is now suffering from a dangerously-thin offensive line. The Broncos, who lost their starting center this summer, will be without left tackle Ryan Clady due to a foot injury.

                        “You just can’t go to 711 and get another one of these guys,” Roods says of Denver’s ailing offensive line.

                        “With these big spreads, the teams don’t care about them,” he says. “If (Denver) gets up by 17 points, they’re going into preservation mode and pulling guys off the bench. There’s always that possibility for a backdoor cover on a late touchdown with these (spreads).”

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                        • #13
                          NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 3
                          by Jason Logan

                          Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 2:

                          New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-1, 45.5)

                          Giants’ deep threats vs. Panthers’ thinning secondary

                          When they’re not busy coughing the ball up, the Giants have been able to explode for big gains. New York leads the league in passing (390.5 ypg) but more importantly averages 14.2 yards per completion, and has struck for 12 plays of 20-plus yards through the first two games.

                          Carolina has given up 8.2 yards per pass attempt – fourth highest in the NFL – against Seattle and Buffalo – two conservative passing attacks. On top of facing the Giants’ deep threats, the Panthers secondary is a mess, with five DBs on injury watch his week and two S going on IR.

                          Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-9, 49)

                          Cardinals’ red-zone defense vs. Saints’ red-zone offense

                          The Saints offense has stalled to start the schedule, averaging just 19.5 points through the first two games. The problem is the red-zone attack, which has punched the ball into the end zone only once and has a TD percentage of just 14.29 percent inside the 20-yard line.

                          Arizona’s underrated defense was among the best at shutting the door in the red zone last year, holding foes to a 44.44 TD percentage inside the 20-yard line (third lowest in the league). This year, the Cardinals have allowed three touchdowns on five trips inside their own red zone but have been able to lockdown the run. Arizona has budged for only 58 total yards on the ground – third fewest in the league.

                          Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44.5)

                          Falcons' fourth-quarter falloff vs. Dolphins' fourth-quarter frenzy

                          The Dolphins’ surprise 2-0 start has a lot to do with their ability to close out games in the final frame. Miami hasn’t allowed a single point in the fourth quarter in its first two outings and is limiting opponents to an average of three second-half points heading into Week 3.

                          The Falcons offense is fading down the stretch. After building quick leads in the first two quarters – 17.0 points per first half (fourth in NFL) – Atlanta has run out of gas in the closing 30 minutes. The Falcons average seven points in the second half – just 3.5 in the fourth quarter – through the first two games of the year.

                          Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-19, 40.5)

                          Jaguars’ coach Gus Bradley vs. Seahawks’ No. 1 defense

                          Just like how Dr. Frankenstein had to face his monstrous creation, Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley takes on a Seahawks stop unit he helped mold. The former Seattle defensive coordinator was with the franchise for four years and knows the ins and outs when it comes to his pupil Dan Quinn, Seattle’s new DC.

                          The Seahawks stop unit has picked up the slack for Seattle’s lack of scoring pop. Seattle’s offense shot itself in the foot with 10 penalties in Week 2 and is picking up just 18.5 first downs per game (20th in the NFL), sandwiching them between two teams with rookie QBs at the helm – Buffalo and New York. If the defense is exposed by its original architect, the Seahawks offense may not have enough fire power to cover this massive spread.


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                          • #14
                            PJ Walsh Sports Insights

                            Finding underdog value in Week 3
                            Where value lies using a betting system based off teams 0-2 ATS
                            Updated: September 18, 2013, 11:45 AM ET
                            By PJ Walsh Sports Insights

                            Through the first two weeks of the season, we've been able to take advantage of new head coaches and teams that lost Week 1 games to pinpoint profitable NFL betting opportunities. While most bettors overreact to straight-up results after Week 1, the betting market starts to see against the spread (ATS) panic following Week 2, as bettors want no part of teams that have had trouble covering the spread in consecutive games. There are 10 teams heading into Week 3 with 0-2 ATS records, meaning there is plenty of value for those interested in continuing with our contrarian betting philosophy.

                            First off, let me just advise that making 10 spread wagers with a slate of 16 total games will put your bankroll at risk and is not recommended. In order to filter this number down, I used our Bet Labs to craft a Week 3 betting system that extracts as much value as possible from teams that start a season with back-to-back ATS losses. The table below displays the results of my analysis, dating back to 2007.

                            Note: Our NFL database starts with the 2003 season, but because of bye-week scheduling, I chose to start the analysis in 2007. From 2003 to 2006, bye weeks began in Week 3, so some teams enjoyed byes after starting 0-2 ATS. In order to keep the results consistent, I used 2007, when the NFL moved the first round of bye weeks to Week 4, as my starting point (Week 3 underdogs that started the season winless ATS covered 66.7 percent of the time from 2003 to 2006).

                            Teams 0-2 ATS since 2007
                            Week 3 Games ATS Record ATS Margin Units Won ROI
                            0-2 ATS, All Teams 26-21 (55.3%) 0.98 +4.69 +10%
                            0-2 ATS, Favorites 7-10 (41.2%) -2.09 -2.80 -16.5%
                            0-2 ATS, Underdogs 19-11 (63.3%) 2.72 +7.49 +25%
                            * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to calculate ATS records
                            Instantly, we see value with teams that start a season 0-2 ATS, as they historically bounce back to cover at a rate of 55.3 percent in Week 3. However, breaking this down even further and comparing favorites to underdogs is where we see the most impressive results. While favorites have struggled to a 41.2 percent win rate ATS, underdogs have covered 63.3 percent of Week 3 games, producing a profit of 7.49 units and a 25 percent return on investment.

                            Why does this work?

                            This system adds another wrinkle to the broader betting strategy of taking advantage of public overreaction. It's extremely difficult for recreational bettors to back a team that has "burned them" twice in a row, even if the numbers say it's a smart Week 3 bet. But remember, oddsmakers are already accounting for how teams have performed and build that into this week's point spreads. Still, public bettors generally focus on recent results and "know" these teams won't cover, while experienced bettors exploit the value illustrated in our historical analysis above.

                            Week 3 system matches
                            Cleveland Browns (plus-5.5) at Minnesota Vikings

                            So much for Cleveland being 2013's trendy sleeper. The Browns have found the end zone only once through two games, and with 79 percent of spread wagers on the Vikings, the betting public wants no part of Cleveland in this game -- especially with Brian Hoyer now starting on Sunday. However, sharp bettors will have no problem buying back the Browns, especially if public action pushes this game to plus-6 or higher.

                            St. Louis Rams (plus-4) at Dallas Cowboys

                            After winning but failing to cover Week 1 against Arizona, St. Louis struggled to a 24-3 halftime deficit last week against Atlanta. The Rams showed some resilience by fighting back and losing by just seven points, but it still wasn't enough to beat the four-point closing spread. Combine St. Louis' 0-2 ATS record and a Week 3 road game against arguably the NFL's most popular team, and you have the perfect recipe for contrarian betting value.

                            Indianapolis Colts (plus-10.5) at San Francisco 49ers

                            Despite getting crushed by Seattle, San Francisco is still a big double-digit favorite against Indianapolis. Returning to our analysis above, double-digit underdogs that start the season 0-2 ATS are 6-1 ATS in Week 3. Even though the sample size is incredibly small, it does show that even big underdogs are capable of covering the spread in this betting system.

                            Jacksonville Jaguars (plus-19.5) at Seattle Seahawks

                            The Seahawks looked great on national television against the 49ers, while the Jaguars mustered a grand total of nine points against the Raiders. Oddsmakers have taken notice, with Jacksonville currently listed as a massive 19.5-point underdog. Since the Jaguars closed as 3.5-point underdogs in each of their two previous games this season, it's hard not to think this week's line has overreaction written all over it.

                            New York Giants (plus-1) at Carolina Panthers

                            Both teams in this matchup are winless ATS this season, meaning it hits both sides of our system. We know from our analysis that the Giants make a nice play as the underdog. Furthermore, the Panthers are solid fade (or bet against) material since favorites historically cover just 41.2 percent of the time in this scenario.

                            Interestingly, the Giants are currently receiving 88 percent of spread bets, which could flip-flop the favorite and underdog by kickoff. The results of this system are based on closing lines, so be sure to check in to Insider's NFL PickCenter throughout the week to see if New York is still the underdog in this matchup.

                            Pittsburgh Steelers (plus-2.5) versus Chicago Bears

                            Pittsburgh has suffered from a combination of key injuries and poor play to start the season winless SU and ATS. Before the season kicked off, the Steelers as a home underdog in Week 3 would have seemed crazy, especially against an opponent that is winless ATS itself (Chicago pushed Week 1 and lost ATS Week 2). However, based on our analysis, this is a good spot to buy low on Pittsburgh getting points at home.

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                            • #15
                              INSIDER ANGLES

                              NFL Trends & Angles - Week 3

                              Two weeks are now in the books in the 2013 NFL season, and thus far the underdogs have had just a slight edge going 17-14-1 ATS after going 9-7 ATS in Week 2. There has been no edge whatsoever so far in the totals department with the 'overs' and the 'unders' having a 16-16 split.

                              While the underdogs are not tearing things up just yet, just the fact that they have a winning record ATS is encouraging with still two weeks of September football left, as the contrarian angles that we prefer seem to work best this month when lines are the softest because bettors often over-react to early-season results.

                              Also you will notice that we have sections below for Good/Bad Team trends, and as a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively. Good Teams are defined as teams that won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are ones that lost at least 10 of their last 16 games.

                              As a reminder, we are only using trends for the month of September for the rest of this month before kicking off our full-season Trends & Angles in October, and all records presented are for the last 13 Septembers since the 2000 season plus the first two weeks of this year.

                              All Teams - General Angles

                              Play against September home favorites coming off an ATS loss (80-53-8, 60.2% ATS): Many times, teams that are favored following an ATS loss are favored more because of reputation than because of performance on the field, and that makes the chalk vulnerable in these situations. Of course there will be situations where these teams bounce back well, but as you can see by the September record, the teams have been overvalued much more often than not. Week 3 is an extremely busy week for this angle as of now.
                              Qualifiers: Kansas City +3 at Philadelphia (Thursday), New York Giants +1 at Carolina, Tampa Bay +7 at New England, Arizona +7 at New Orleans, Indianapolis +10 at San Francisco and Detroit +2½ at Washington.

                              Play on September conference underdogs that were favored in their last game
                              (89-60-8, 59.7% ATS): Novice bettors almost always prefer to bet favorites, and in their minds, when they see a team is an underdog after being favored the prior week, their general feeling is that either the team was overrated to begin the year or the team is now going up against a superior team.
                              Qualifiers: Baltimore +2½, Detroit +2½ and Oakland +15 (Monday).

                              Play against September home favorites coming off a road game (134-96-13, 58.3% ATS): This percentage may be a tad lower than our others, but the very large sample size makes up for it. Bettors often assume that home favorites that were on the road the prior week will automatically improve solely because of now having home field. While that does happen from time to time, this record suggests that home field is actually being overcompensated for in the betting line. Once again, Week 3 is a huge week for this angle.
                              Qualifiers: New York Giants +1, St. Louis +4, Atlanta +3, Cleveland +5.5, Arizona +7, Buffalo +2½, Indianapolis +10, San Diego +3, Detroit +2½ and Oakland +15 (Monday).

                              Good Teams - At Least 10 Wins in the Last 16 Games

                              Play against Good Teams in September coming off of an ATS loss (68-47-4, 59.1% ATS): Bettors are usually more forgiving when a Good Team fails to cover the spread than when a Bad Team fails to do so, as they believe the Good Teams have a better chance to bounce back stronger next game. However, a lot of times the team is simply not as good as it was the previous year, and the oddsmakers are a tad slow to adjust to that.
                              Qualifiers: Pittsburgh +2½ vs. Chicago, Baltimore +2½ vs. Houston and Tampa Bay +7 at New England. Note: San Francisco and Indianapolis would both qualify also, but they are opposing each other.

                              Play the 'over' in September when Good Teams are coming off of a straight up double-digit win (56-33-1, 62.9%): There is a direct correlation between winning by 10 points or more and games going 'over', and Good Teams are more apt to repeat good performances the following week. This even applied to defensive minded teams as they too tend to go 'over' in double-digit wins as their fine defense usually leads to good field position.
                              Qualifying 'OVERS': Green Bay at Cincinnati, Jacksonville at Seattle and Oakland at Denver (Monday).

                              Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (47-30-7, 61.0% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it.
                              Qualifiers: Miami -3 and San Francisco -10.

                              Bad Teams - At Least 10 Losses in the Last 16 Games

                              Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (112-75-10, 59.9% ATS): Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a fantastic winning percentage for this size of a sampling.
                              Qualifiers: Kansas City +3 (Thursday), Arizona +7, Buffalo +2½, Cleveland +5½, Detroit +2½, Jacksonville +19, San Diego +3, Tampa Bay +7 and Oakland +15 (Monday).

                              Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (61-36-3, 62.9% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win.
                              Qualifiers: New York Giants +1 and Buffalo +2½.

                              Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September
                              (51-25-4, 67.1% ATS): This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being underdogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration.
                              Qualifiers: Kansas City +3 (Thursday) and Buffalo +2½.

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