Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

NFL Betting Info. Week 2

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • NFL Betting Info. Week 2

    NFC News and Notes from Week 1
    By Teddy Covers
    Sportsmemo.com

    Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 1.

    Chicago Bears – Sure, the Bears didn't make the playoffs last year, but they won ten games and were one of the league's better teams. This defense can still make plenty of big plays, as evidenced by Charles Tillman's huge game and their complete domination against the run here. Jay Cutler did a great job finding open receivers on third and long. He connected on a pair of third and longs into very tight windows on Chicago's first touchdown drive. The revamped offensive line didn't do much for run blocking, but they gave Cutler all the time he needed all afternoon.

    Cutler can still scramble out of pressure and his mobility created several opportunities that wouldn't have been there otherwise. But Cutler's propensity for making mistakes at crucial times was on display here, a horrible pass on first down as the Bears were driving in the fourth quarter. However, he made the most of his next chance, finding the unstoppable Brandon Marshall repeatedly on Chicago’s game winning drive.

    Arizona Cardinals – This team looks a lot better with a real quarterback! Larry Fitzgerald is a dangerous weapon again, and both Andre Roberts and Michael Floyd were hit in stride repeatedly by Carson Palmer. Everyone should be talking about the Honey Badger’s strip /fumble on Rams TE Jared Cook, saving a sure touchdown; an immediate impact defender.

    Love Bruce Arians aggressive nature. Arizona got the ball back on his own 20 with less than 30 seconds to play before halftime. Does Arians sit on the ball? Nope, Carson Palmer was firing away downfield, which led to a FG attempt. Smart coach won't let those seconds tick off the clock. But a smart coach wasn’t enough to prevent ‘Zona from choking away their double digit lead in the fourth quarter; unable to sustain drives when it mattered most.

    San Francisco 49ers – For a team that supposedly has big concerns at WR, this passing game had little trouble moving the chains, and Kaepernick wasn't shy about finding different receivers to throw to. Anquan Boldin is certainly no second tier weapon, an absolute monster in his 49ers debut; making several eye-popping grabs in traffic.

    This was not an elite level defense down the stretch last year. It wasn't an elite level defense in the playoffs. And it wasn't an elite level defense today either – they stuffed the run, but got picked apart by the Packers passing game; unable to pressure Aaron Rodgers. This isn’t going to be the last shootout Jim Harbaugh’s squad will play this year.

    Detroit Lions – Detroit won this game by ten, but they still made a boatload of mistakes, and failed to take advantage of numerous opportunities. New punter, new holder and new kicker for Detroit this year led to a botched snap on their first field goal try. A holding penalty negated a successful fourth down conversion; forcing the Lions to settle for three. That was just one of eleven penalties for Detroit, including a pair that took touchdowns off the board; not exactly the most disciplined team.

    This defensive line is absolutely dominant; as good as any in the NFL. After Adrian Peterson scampered for a 78-yard TD on the Lions very first defensive play of the game, Detroit’s defensive front controlled the game thereafter. AP had only 15 yards on his final 17 carries, and was held to less than ten yards on all four of his receptions. Yes, Peterson had three TDs, but Reggie Bush was the most valuable running back on the field in this ballgame. The Lions have a running game this year, and a valuable dump-off weapon for Stafford to throw to.

    Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton was this team's leading rusher last year, so they brought in the thoroughly discredited Mike Shula to coordinate the offense this year. Based on Week 1's performance from DeAngelo Williams, Newton could be the leading rusher again this year, even though Shula’s stated goal is to limit his carries. Williams didn’t find much room to run and fumbled twice, including a crucial miscue in the red zone in the fourth quarter. And Newton was held to a career low in total offense, although Greg Olson’s case of the dropsies didn’t help matters.

    This was a top 10 defense last year (very quietly) and could be in that range again this year. Luke Kuechly is as good as any linebacker in the NFL right now, the pass rush was there with Charles Johnson and the coverage in the secondary was rock solid all afternoon. This front seven owned the line of scrimmage, a truly impressive defensive showing. After the loss, the Panthers are now 2-13 in games decided by a TD or less in the Newton/Rivera era. I blame coach more than quarterback for that dismal record.

    New Orleans Saints – The Saints won the toss and elected to kick off first, putting their defense on the field. That’s something Sean Payton hasn’t done in the past; a telling indicator that he expects significant improvement in the first year of the Rob Ryan era on D. This defense was record-setting awful last year and they were vulnerable to the big play here, allowing a pair of 50+ yard gainers. But the pass rush was there throughout, with three sacks and ten QB hurries. And the Saints two minute defense saved the game for them; forcing a punt before halftime and notching the game saving interception on fourth and goal in the final minute of regulation.

    It’s really hard to get this team off the field on third down, regardless of the distance. But there’s not much of a running game – it's all on Drew Brees once again this year. I'm just not impressed with this group of running backs. Lots of tentative runs and not many downhill rushes leads to a one dimensional pass only offense.

    Seattle Seahawks – My biggest concern for the Seahawks in Week 1 was their play in the trenches. This is supposed to be an elite level offensive line, but it sure didn't look that way here. Russell Wilson got hit as much in this game as he did in any game last year, really pounded. And Seattle’s defensive line has limited depth due to injuries; a subpar performance.

    Wilson had five fourth quarter comebacks last year and led the Seahawks back from a 4th quarter deficit here; exactly the type of QB you want your money on in a tight game in the fourth quarter. He threw one strike after the next; and was smart enough to know to be patient and wait for the next play when things weren't flowing. Lots of 'too aggressive' penalties, personal fouls and late hits, typical of Pete Carroll coached teams.

    Minnesota Vikings – All five offensive linemen started every game together last year and return intact for 2013; a clear area of strength for Minnesota. But the defense got gutted with major losses in the offseason. That D got picked apart here, a massive decline from 2012.

    This was the 27th career start for Christian Ponder. He's won close games, led fourth quarter comebacks, taken the team to the playoffs, yet he gets absolutely zero respect. Why not? Because he's not that good, throwing a pick six here (overturned by penalty), struggling with consistency throughout. Ponder continues to stare down receivers, making it easier for opposing cornerbacks. He threw another pick six, but it was dropped by the Lions defender. Even with Blair Walsh making every long field goal (now 11-11 from 50+ in his career), given these defensive question marks, the Vikings are likely to need touchdowns, not field goals, to win games in 2013.

  • #2
    NFL Top 5 Players Primed for a Week 2 Bounceback

    The opening Sunday of the NFL season saw plenty of inspired offensive performances - and more than a few clunkers, as well. Fortunately, with the next game less than a week away, players off to slow starts have an immediate chance at redemption.

    Here are five players who are in good position for a Week 2 rebound (Week 1 totals in parentheses):

    Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (16-for-23, 125 yards, TD)

    Newton was effective when he actually passed the ball, but the Seattle defense made life difficult for him all afternoon long. The former first overall pick was also done in by frequent drops from tight end Greg Olsen which ultimately cost Carolina a chance at a big Week 1 victory. Newton will find things a lot easier this coming week, when he takes on a Buffalo Bills team that allowed Tom Brady to rack up nearly 300 passing yards in a narrow New England win.

    Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (10 carries, 3 yards)

    Miller was awful in the Dolphins' opener, failing to post a single run longer than five yards and losing a pivotal goal-line carry to backup Daniel Thomas. With Ryan Tannehill (24-for-38, 272 yards) moving the ball well, there was less of a need to rely on the running game. Miller should find plenty more success in Week 2, as Miami faces an Indianapolis Colts team that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league last year and gave up 171 to Oakland on Sunday.

    Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (15 carries, 45 yards)

    The 2011 NFL rushing champion was stymied all afternoon, breaking off just one double-digit run before being rendered an afterthought once the Jaguars fell way behind. Unless quarterback Blaine Gabbert (16-for-35, 121 yards, 2 INT) figures it out in a hurry, Jones-Drew could be in for a lot of rest come the third and fourth quarters of blowouts. This week should bear more fruit as the Jags visit the woeful Oakland Raiders.

    Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (four catches, 37 yards)

    The hand-wringing over Johnson's pedestrian Week 1 totals looks a lot like the reaction people had last season, when Johnson's slow start to the year had some wondering if he was hurt or struggling with his rapport with Matthew Stafford. We all know how that turned out. Johnson won't have an easy time of it in Detroit's Week 2 tilt with Arizona, but it's a safe bet he'll see plenty of targets against a Cardinals team carved up by Sam Bradford on Sunday.

    Zach Sudfeld, TE, New England Patriots (zero catches, zero yards, one target)

    Sudfeld was the darling of fantasy sleeper enthusiasts, but looked remarkably un-Gronk-like in his first career NFL game. Sudfeld's only target resulted in an interception, and his limited snap count likely made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. With Rob Gronkowski expected back soon, Week 2 is a pivotal one for Sudfeld; luckily for him, the Patriots host the New York Jets on Sunday in what should be a rout.

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL Gambling Preview: Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers
      By Otto Sports
      Sportsmemo.com

      Washington at Green Bay
      Sunday, 10 am PT – FOX
      CRIS Opener: Green Bay -6.5 O/U 48
      CRIS Current: Green Bay -7.5 O/U 48.5
      Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Green Bay -6.5
      Marty Otto’s Recommendation: Use Green Bay -1.5 in a 2-team, 6-point teaser

      The Redskins are in a brutal spot here as they travel to Green Bay on short rest having just played on Monday night. To exacerbate the poor spot even more is the fact they played against the new Chip Kelly up-tempo spread offense. The Eagles ran a remarkable 53 plays in the first half alone and you have to imagine Washington’s thin defense is still going to be feeling the effects come Sunday. We have to remember most of this roster is not “game fit” just yet so four long quarters of uphill fighting can really gas a defense. It should be noted that Green Bay was a top ten offense in terms of tempo last season so we shouldn’t expect many breaks in the action this week either.

      Green Bay comes in after a dog fight of its own, an emotional playoff revenge situation in San Francisco. While they were picked apart by Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense you have to believe the Packers are in a much better position to rebound this week. For starters, they return home where they are a truly fantastic 24-3 straight up since 2010 while going a sizzling 19-8 against the spread. They’ve got Aaron Rodgers pulling the strings, still one of the top three signal callers in the NFL. At his disposal are emerging star Randall Cobb, a healthy Jordy Nelson and what looks to be a motivated Jermichael Finley. And while the stout defensive front of the 49ers bottled up the Packers ground game I saw some glimpses from Eddie Lacy that make me believe Green Bay could be a much more balanced attack moving forward against non-elite rush defenses.

      Speaking of rush defenses, the Green Bay front seven looked very solid against the 49ers on Sunday. The return of Johnny Jolly to the defensive line gives them some toughness I thought they lacked last year. They bottled up Frank Gore all day and will be tested to do the same against Alfred Morris and the Redskins who led the league in rushing in 2012.

      With RGIII in injury comeback mode, the defense having been run all over the field and the shorter turnaround time I just don’t see Washington winning this game. I believe the Packers are a great option to include in teasers this weekend.

      Comment


      • #4
        New York Jets at New England Patriots
        By Nick Parsons
        Sportspic.com

        Imagine the New York Jets making their annual Foxboro invasion of Foxboro with a 1-0 record and taking on the 0-1 New England Patriots?

        Only a New England field goal in the final seconds in Buffalo separated that scenario from reality, and when the teams take the field at Gillette Stadium in Thursday night, both will be 1-0 on the year.

        But those 1-0's could just as easily be 0-1's, since both the Patriots and Jets are thanking their lucky stars after each executed a "Great Escape" in their respective openers on Sunday.

        New England was headed for its first loss to Buffalo since seemingly the Woodrow Wilson Administration, after being victimized by a Tom Brady interception and a few fumbles. The Bills held a 21-20 lead, and were actually starting to believe in miracles when the Pats got control of the ball in the final two minutes. Brady and the ailing Danny Amendola decided that enough was enough, marching New England into field goal position for the dagger that just about everyone, except the Bills and their fans, knew was coming.

        A win is a win is a win, but no one in the Pats entourage was smiling as they left Buffalo to prepare for the Jets.

        Maybe watching the Jets-Buccaneers game film perked up Bill Belichick a bit, because the Jets were hardly a reincarnation of the mid-1980s Chicago Bears.

        Rex Ryan was smiling and doling out praise like candy on Halloween after the NYJ’s 18-17 victory over the Buccaneers. Of course, he was conveniently forgetting to mention that Nick Folk would not have been able to kick the 48-yard game-winner if Tampa Bay linebacker Lavonte David had not had a brain fart by committing a personal foul to put the Jets in field goal range. Also, Jets’ running backs only rushed for 43 yards in 23 carries. Not good at all.

        Geno Smith (24 for 38 and 256 yards) probably will keep the starting job for New York until he screws up, which will be Thursday night around 8:30 p.m. Eastern time if the oddsmakers are correct. New England opened at -12.5 and the line almost immediately jumped to 13. Even at nearly two TDs, the early money has been on the Pats to cruise at home and beat the Jets like a drum – the same way they did in their previous meeting last Thanksgiving in a 49-19 rout.

        Bettors should be wary of big numbers with New England this season. It was clear from the Buffalo game that the kid receivers on the Patriots are nowhere near in sync with Brady yet. Three rookies were targeted 17 times, with only four catches on the day. With Amendola still not at 100 percent, covering 13 could be as problematic as going over the 44 total.

        This is an interesting game on the radar; just don’t expect any fireworks.

        Comment


        • #5
          Injury-riddled Patriots favored big vs. Jets Thursday
          by Brian Graham

          Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
          Line: New England -12, Total: 43.5

          The banged-up Patriots seek a fifth straight series win over the rival Jets when the AFC East foes collide on Thursday night.

          Although New England won a 49-19 laugher in their most recent meeting last Nov. 22, New York covered in Foxboro one month prior to that, falling 29-26 in overtime. Speaking of close games, both teams needed a field goal in the closing seconds in Week 1 to pull out nail-biting victories. Jets rookie QB Geno Smith piled up 303 total yards in an 18-17 home win versus the Bucs, while Patriots QB Tom Brady threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns to lead his club to a 23-21 win in Buffalo. Both scores went to WR Julian Edelman, who might have to play an even bigger role on Thursday with RB Shane Vereen (wrist) out, and both TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) and WR Danny Amendola (groin) doubtful. Although the Jets are 44-27 ATS (62%) on the road in divisional play since 1992, the Patriots are 9-1 ATS when coming off a win against an AFC foe in the past three seasons.

          The Jets allowed Geno Smith to make his NFL debut last week, and it paid off big-time, as Smith completed 24-of-38 passes for 256 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but he did absorb five sacks. He was also the only competent rusher on his team, gaining 47 yards on six carries while the unimpressive RB duo of Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory combined for 44 yards on 22 carries. Despite this poor ground game, the Jets still won the time of possession battle 32:22 to 27:38. Smith's favorite target through the air was newly-signed TE Kellen Winslow, a former Patriots player. The tight end caught seven of his eight targets for 79 yards and the team's lone touchdown. New York's defense did a great job stuffing the run and star RB Doug Martin, holding the second-year pro to 65 yards on 24 carries (2.7 YPC). That was something they did not do well against the Patriots last year, allowing them to total 283 rushing yards in the two defeats.

          Although Patriots still remember the home playoff loss to the Jets three years ago when they were the top seed in the AFC, Tom Brady has dominated this series in the regular season recently, throwing for 312 yards per game with 13 touchdowns and just one pick while leading his team to five straight wins over the hated rival. While his receiving corps is in disarray other than Edelman who caught 7-of-9 targets from Brady last week, New England's running game is not in tip-top shape either. With Vereen out, the team will turn back to Stevan Ridley who was benched for the majority of the season opener after his second-quarter fumble put the Bills on the scoreboard. Ridley certainly has the ability to overcome this mistake, especially against a Jets team that allowed him to chew up 162 yards on the ground and a touchdown over two meetings last year. With RB Brandon Bolden questionable with a knee injury, the only other option to run the football is LeGarrette Blount who gained a paltry 15 yards on seven carries on Sunday. Newly re-signed RB/KR Leon Washington might also get some reps on third down. The Patriots are hoping to dominate time of possession like they did against the Bills on Sunday, keeping the ball for 37:43 compared to 22:17 for Buffalo. New England will also look to pressure Smith often and create turnovers like they did last year when they tallied seven total takeaways in the two wins over the Jets.

          Comment


          • #6
            Thursday Night Football Betting

            Jets at Patriots

            New York Jets at New England Patriots (-12, 43)

            The New England Patriots and New York Jets are each coming off last-second wins in their season openers, but the level of satisfaction on both sides was markedly different. The Jets eked out a one-point victory over Tampa Bay in quarterback Geno Smith's NFL debut and will look to carry that momentum into their showdown with the host Patriots on Thursday night. New England blew a 10-point lead and needed a late comeback from Tom Brady to overcome upset-minded Buffalo.

            The Patriots have won the last four meetings, including a 49-19 thumping of the Jets on Thanksgiving night last year - a game remembered for the infamous "butt fumble" by New York quarterback Mark Sanchez. Smith will get his second start while Sanchez seeks a second opinion on his injured right shoulder from renowned orthopedist Dr. James Andrews. Brady and New England's overhauled receiving corps struggled in the opener and the team could be further depleted by injury for Thursday's matchup.

            TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

            WEATHER: There is a 49 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures in the low 70s. Winds blowing south at 8 mph.

            POWER RANKINGS: New York (+6.0) + New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -14

            LINE: The Patriots opened at -13 and were as high as -14 before injury news forced money on New York and moved the spread to as low as -12. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.

            ABOUT THE JETS (1-0, 1-0 ATS): Smith was far from perfect in his debut but he etched his name into the record books by becoming the first rookie quarterback drafted in the second round or later since the 1970 merger to throw for at least 250 yards and win a season opener. Smith finished 24-for-38 for 256 yards with a fumble and interception, but he got the team in position for the decisive field goal in the final 34 seconds - albeit with the help of a Tampa Bay penalty. New York's defense - the calling card of coach Rex Ryan during his tenure - limited the Buccaneers to 250 yards of offense but the Jets' running game was non-existent, with Smith leading the way with 47 yards.

            ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (1-0, 0-1 ATS): New England got bad news on the injury front Monday when it was reported that running back Shane Vereen will require surgery for a broken wrist and will be out a few weeks. Vereen was the only running back in the NFL to surpass 100 yards on Sunday and added seven catches for 58 yards after replacing Stevan Ridley, who was benched due to a pair of fumbles. Wideout Danny Amendola was Brady's favorite target with 10 catches for 104 yards, but he aggravated a groin injury during the win and his status is uncertain. In addition, rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld, the team's training camp sensation, is not expected to play due to a pulled hamstring.

            TRENDS:

            * Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in New England.
            * Over is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.
            * Road team is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings.
            * Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC.
            * Over is 16-5 in Patriots' last 21 vs. AFC East.

            EXTRA POINTS:

            1. Brady has thrown a touchdown pass in 49 consecutive games, five shy of Drew Brees' NFL record.

            2. Jets WR Santonio Holmes, a former Super Bowl MVP, had one catch for 13 yards in his first action since suffering a Lisfranc foot injury in Week 4 last season.

            3. The Jets on Monday re-signed QB Brady Quinn, a former first-round pick, to serve as Smith's backup.

            Comment


            • #7
              Tale of the Tape

              New York Jets at New England Patriots

              There is no love lost between the Jets and Patriots, even if the two rivals are on opposite ends of the AFC spectrum. We break down Thursday’s AFC North grudge match with our betting tale of the tape:

              Offense

              Even though the Patriots lost plenty of weapons this offseason, are still without TE Rob Gronkowski and just lost WR Danny Amendola and RB Shane Vereen to injuries, they’re scoring attack is still light years ahead of the Jets. Tom Brady may have found Wes Welker 2.0 in WR Julian Edelman.

              Geno Smith was a pleasant surprise for Jets faithful against the Bucs in Week 1. The rookie completed 63.2 percent of his passes and did a little damage on the ground as well. In fact, he pretty much did all the heavy lifting for New York’s ground game, which rushed for only 43 yards outside of Smith’s contributions.

              Edge: New England

              Defense

              New York’s defense was opportunistic in the win over Tampa Bay, picking off one pass and recovering one of its three forced fumbles. It will need to generate those turnovers if its wants a shot at upsetting the mighty Pats on the road. New England is minus its top TE weapons and Jet CB Antonio Cromartie should be able to limit Edelman.

              New England faces its second straight rookie passer after giving up two TDs to Bills first-year QB E.J. Manuel in Week 1’s 23-21 nail-biter over Buffalo. The Patriots did limit the Bills to just 150 yards passing but couldn't come up big in the red zone and failed to register a single sack.

              Edge: New York

              Special teams

              The real edge in this matchup is New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski, who nailed all three of his field goal attempts, including the game winner with five seconds left, versus Buffalo.

              New York kicker Nick Folk was just as accurate, going 3 for 3 versus the Bucs. However, Folk has been shaky at times and connected on only 77.8 percent of his FGs last season. He did go 4 for 4 his last time playing at Gillette Stadium.

              Edge: New England

              Notable quotable

              "Rex (Ryan) is to a degree a game-plan coach. He defends you the way that they feel they need to do that. How they defend you and how they defended the team before or the opponent after is all based on how he sees the matchups and what he wants to do. There's certainly going to be some in-game adjustments that we'll have to make, I'm sure, in all three phases of the game based on how they specifically want to try to attack us." – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.

              "I'm not saying I'm guaranteeing it, but I'm saying if we do our jobs and follow our game plan, I don't see why we wouldn't be 2-0. We had a good game plan in the first game and we won, so why wouldn't I feel that way for this game? I'm here with these guys every day and I see all the hard work that myself and everybody else on this team is putting in. We can be a dominant defense." – Jets DE Mo Wilkerson.

              Comment


              • #8
                INSIDER ANGLES


                NFL Trends & Angles - Week 2


                Opening Week of the 2013 season in now in the books, and unlike past years, and the underdogs had a slight edge ATS despite favorites going 12-4 straight up, as the dogs ended up 8-7-1 vs. the number. Also there was absolutely no Week 1 edge in totals either way, with the 'over' and 'under' splitting 8-8.


                Those results aside, contrarian angles seem to work best in September when lines are the softest because bettors often over-react to results of the previous week, perhaps especially in this Week 2, as it is still early enough where no one knows for certain just how good or bad most teams are.


                Also you will notice that we have sections below for Good/Bad Team trends, and as a reminder, we are not using those terms subjectively. Good Teams are defined as teams that won at least 10 of their last 16 games and Bad Teams are ones that lost at last 10 of their last 16 games.


                Thus, now that we are one game into this 2013 season, the Good/Bad parameters are no longer based on a quick lookup of 2012 records like they were last week since they are based on a rolling set of each team's last 16 games, meaning that this weeks qualifiers are based on their records of the last 15 games of 2012 plus the results last week.


                All records presented are for the last 13 years since the 2000 season, and as we will continue to do throughout this month, all of this week's records are for September games only.


                All Teams - General Angles


                Play against September home favorites coming off a straight up loss (87-55-10, 61.3% ATS): Many times, teams that are favored following a loss are favored more because of reputation than because of performance on the field, and that makes the chalk vulnerable in these situations. Of course there will be situations where these teams bounce back well, but as you can see by the September record, the teams have been overvalued much more often than not. Qualifiers: St. Louis +7 at Atlanta, Cleveland +6.5 at Baltimore, Washington +7.5 at Green Bay, Jacksonville +5.5 at Oakland and Pittsburgh +7 at Cincinnati (Monday).


                Play on September conference underdogs that were favored in their last game (88-55-8, 61.5% ATS): Novice bettors almost always prefer to bet favorites, and in their minds, when they see a team is an underdog after being favored the prior week, their general feeling is that either the team was overrated to begin the year or the team is now going up against a superior team. Qualifiers: Cleveland +6.5, San Francisco +3, St. Louis +7, Tampa Bay +3, Washington +7.5 and Pittsburgh +7 (Monday).


                Play against September home favorites coming off a road game (130-90-13, 59.1% ATS): Bettors often assume that home favorites that were on the road the prior week will automatically improve solely because of now having home field. While that does happen from time to time, this record suggests that home field is actually being overcompensated for in the betting line. Qualifiers: N.Y. Jets +11.5 (Thursday), St. Louis +7, Cleveland +6.5, Washington +7.5, Tennessee +9.5, Dallas +3, Jacksonville +5.5, San Diego +7, San Francisco +3, Pittsburgh +7 (Monday).


                Good Teams - At Least 10 Wins in the Last 16 Games


                Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (46-30-7, 60.5% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it. Qualifier: Seattle -3.


                Play the 'over' when Good Teams play September division games (76-54-3, 60.2%): Just like any other sport, NFL teams are more familiar with division opponents that any other teams on their schedule, and that is not to mention that division games are the most important ones. Truly good teams know how to take advantage of familiar defenses and they usually get up for these games, often resulting in higher scoring, especially when the familiar opponents try to keep pace. Qualifying 'overs': N.Y. Jets at New England (Thursday), Cleveland at Baltimore, Minnesota at Chicago, Tennessee at Houston and San Francisco at Seattle.


                Play the 'over' when Good Teams are favored over Bad Teams during September (62-42-1, 59.6%): This is a often a case of a favorite being so much better then its opponent that it can name the score, but there are also occasions where the inferior team gets up for these games early in the year while they still have playoff aspirations just like everybody else. Both of these circumstances usually produce higher scoring games. Qualifying 'overs': N.Y. Jets at New England (Thursday) and Cleveland at Baltimore.


                Bad Teams - At Least 10 Losses in the Last 16 Games


                Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (110-73-10, 60.1% ATS): Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a fantastic winning percentage for this size of a sampling. Qualifiers: N.Y. Jets +11.5 (Thursday), Cleveland +6.5, Jacksonville +5.5 and San Diego +7.


                Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (60-35-3, 63.2% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win. Qualifiers: Arizona +1½ and Jacksonville +5.5.


                Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September (49-24-4, 67.1% ATS): This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being underdogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration. Qualifiers: Arizona +1½, Jacksonville +5.5 and San Diego +7.

                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL Betting Week 2 Preview
                  by Frank Doyle

                  Hot Bets and Moving Odds

                  For veteran bettors, Week 1 probably went just as expected. There were some big lines on the board and the underdogs held their own. Four outright underdogs won straight up and dogs finished 8-7-1 overall. Week 2’s lines have come down a bit across the Sports Interaction board so let’s dig in.

                  All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 12.

                  Key Numbers

                  Week 2’s board features a ton of field goal and touchdown lines. Unlike last week, where the lines were all over the place, this time we have four pointspreads of seven points and three pointspreads of three points. New England is the big favorite at -11 at home to the New York Jets Thursday and Arizona is the slightest favorite at -1.5 at home to the Detroit Lions.

                  Patriot Games

                  Last week, the New England Patriots were big favorites but couldn’t cover in a tight win over Buffalo. They opened as 13-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jets, but that line is dropping steadily as the club works on a short week with injury concerns. Shane Vereen is out for a while and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are very, very doubtful. When the Pats were 12.5-point favorites, 70 percent of Sports Interaction’s tickets were coming in on New England, but that’s changed as the game nears. Now as New England sits as an 11-point favorite, just 56 percent of the action is coming in on the Pats.

                  More Odds on the Move

                  The Baltimore Ravens opened as 6.5-point favorites at home to Cleveland but it looks as though the betting public is a bit concerned after that spanking they took from Denver. The Ravens have moved from -6.5 to -6.

                  It’s hard to get a read on the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. Are the Jags really as bad as they showed in last week’s blowout loss? Are the Raiders better than expected? These are questions bettors are asking themselves as this line bounces between Oakland -6 and -5.5. Don’t be surprised if this line flutters right up until kickoff.

                  Talking Totals

                  If you can’t guess the two 50-plus totals on the board this week, you haven’t done your homework. The Philadelphia Eagles blazed through their win over Washington last week only to hear coach Chip Kelly say their no-huddle wasn’t fast enough. Philly is a 9.5-point favorite hosting San Diego and oddsmakers have a 55-point total posted. If Kelly has it his way, over bettors might be cashing their tickets by halftime.

                  Meanwhile, after throwing seven touchdowns last week, Peyton Manning and his Broncos see another 55-point total when they visit Eli and the Giants. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite. Dating back to last year, the over has gone 4-0-1 in Denver’s last five games.

                  Who’s Hot, Who’s Not

                  There is a lot of weird stuff going on with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman was stripped of his captaincy before the season began and missed the team photo, leading to a players-only meeting in Week 1. This week the Bucs host the Saints as 3.5-point underdogs and 94 percent of the action is coming in on New Orleans.

                  Baltimore bettors expect the defending champs to bounce back in a big way. The Ravens are seeing 93 percent of the action as 6-point favorites against Cleveland.

                  After surviving a scare in Week 1, the public is all over the Colts to cover the field goal spread as they host the Miami Dolphins. Right now, just 11 percent of bettors are siding with Miami.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches Week 2

                    Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 2:

                    San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

                    Chargers’ cross-country trip vs. Eagles’ frantic pace

                    Both of these teams are playing on a short week, having headlined the Monday doubleheader. But only one – San Diego – has to fly coast to coast in Week 2. The Chargers gassed out against the Texans in Week 1, giving up 24 points in the second half including 17 in the fourth quarter, and now face Chip Kelly’s rapid-fire attack.

                    New San Diego head coach Mike McCoy is trying to instill a similar plan of attack in his team this season, looking to push the tempo. That may be the Bolts’ worst enemy in Philadelphia. Getting into a track meet with the Eagles on a short week while traveling cross-country could leave little in the tank for the Chargers – again - come the fourth quarter.

                    Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

                    Cowboys’ rejuvenated front seven vs. Chiefs’ conservative attack

                    Dallas’ new 4-3 defense looked like it had been playing that scheme for years against the Giants Sunday night, picking off three passes and forcing three lost fumbles. Those six takeaways are a huge contrast to last season. The pass rush also looked good, getting to Eli Manning three times. The Cowboys' only weakness was to the big play, allowing New York to connect on long third-down conversions and strike for a 70-yard TD pass before the half.

                    Dallas defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin may not have to worry as much about the long bomb this week. The Chiefs offense dinked-and-dumped its way to 28 points versus Jacksonville Sunday, averaging only five yards per pass and topping out on a 26-yard completion from QB Alex Smith. Kansas City’s new head coach Andy Reid knows the Cowboys well, but not this revamped defense that is wreaking havoc between the chains.

                    New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)

                    Saints’ downfield weapons vs. Bucs’ poor pass D and rusty Revis

                    Tampa Bay ranked last versus the pass in 2012 and was supposed to have plugged those holes with the addition of CB Darrelle Revis. However, Revis was a step behind in his first NFL game since last fall and the Bucs allowed Jets rookie QB Geno Smith to complete over 63 percent of his passes and connect for two TDs.

                    Enter Drew Brees, who has been the top gunslinger in the NFL the past five seasons. He put up 357 yards through the air and two touchdowns in a win over Atlanta, and went for 307 yards and four TDs in a 41-0 ass-waxing of Tampa Bay last season. Revis can only cover one guy. Brees has more than enough weapons to choose from, with six players targeted four or more times in Week 1.

                    Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)

                    Broncos’ punishing pace vs. Giants’ dinged-up defense

                    The New York defense limps back home after a tough loss in Dallas Sunday night. The Giants have a laundry list of ailments, including CB Prince Amukamara, LB Dan Connor, and DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who obviously wasn’t 100 percent after offseason back surgery. Those injuries will be exploited even more when Peyton Manning puts his offensive pedal to the metel.

                    The Broncos’ no-huddle attack could strand those hobbled defenders on the field Sunday. They ran 68 plays during the Thursday’s night blowout over the Ravens and boasted the third-fastest pace in the NFL last year. Not only that, New York’s lack of a running game will have the Giants struggling to control the clock. And winning the time of possession battle is key when trying to slow down Manning. If he’s not on the field, he can’t hurt you. Expect to see more of one brother than the other in “The Manning Bowl”.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      NFL Betting Week 2 Preview: Hot Bets and Moving Odds
                      By Covers.com

                      Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 2’s NFL action.

                      For veteran bettors, Week 1 probably went just as expected. There were some big lines on the board and the underdogs held their own. Four outright underdogs won straight up and dogs finished 8-7-1 overall. Week 2’s lines have come down a bit across the Sports Interaction board so let’s dig in.

                      All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 12.

                      Key numbers

                      Week 2’s board features a ton of field goal and touchdown lines. Unlike last week, where the lines were all over the place, this time we have four pointspreads of seven points and three pointspreads of three points. New England is the big favorite at -11 at home to the New York Jets Thursday and Arizona is the slightest favorite at -1.5 at home to the Detroit Lions.

                      Patriot games

                      Last week, the New England Patriots were big favorites but couldn’t cover in a tight win over Buffalo. They opened as 13-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jets, but that line is dropping steadily as the club works on a short week with injury concerns. Shane Vereen is out for a while and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are very, very doubtful. When the Pats were 12.5-point favorites, 70 percent of Sports Interaction’s tickets were coming in on New England, but that’s changed as the game nears. Now as New England sits as an 11-point favorite, just 56 percent of the action is coming in on the Pats.

                      More odds on the move

                      The Baltimore Ravens opened as 6.5-point favorites at home to Cleveland but it looks as though the betting public is a bit concerned after that spanking they took from Denver. The Ravens have moved from -6.5 to -6.

                      It’s hard to get a read on the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. Are the Jags really as bad as they showed in last week’s blowout loss? Are the Raiders better than expected? These are questions bettors are asking themselves as this line bounces between Oakland -6 and -5.5. Don’t be surprised if this line flutters right up until kickoff.

                      Talking totals

                      If you can’t guess the two 50-plus totals on the board this week, you haven’t done your homework. The Philadelphia Eagles blazed through their win over Washington last week only to hear coach Chip Kelly say their no-huddle wasn’t fast enough. Philly is a 9.5-point favorite hosting San Diego and oddsmakers have a 55-point total posted. If Kelly has it his way, over bettors might be cashing their tickets by halftime.

                      Meanwhile, after throwing seven touchdowns last week, Peyton Manning and his Broncos see another 55-point total when they visit Eli and the Giants. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite. Dating back to last year, the over has gone 4-0-1 in Denver’s last five games.

                      Who’s hot, who’s not

                      There is a lot of weird stuff going on with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman was stripped of his captaincy before the season began and missed the team photo, leading to a players-only meeting in Week 1. This week the Bucs host the Saints as 3.5-point underdogs and 94 percent of the action is coming in on New Orleans.

                      Baltimore bettors expect the defending champs to bounce back in a big way. The Ravens are seeing 93 percent of the action as 6-point favorites against Cleveland.

                      After surviving a scare in Week 1, the public is all over the Colts to cover the field goal spread as they host the Miami Dolphins. Right now, just 11 percent of bettors are siding with Miami.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        NFL
                        Short Sheet

                        Week 2

                        Sunday, September 15, 2013

                        San Diego at Philadelhia, 1:00 ET
                        San Diego: 8-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or less
                        Philadelphia: 1-8 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

                        Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
                        Cleveland: 2-10 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite
                        Baltimore: 25-12 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

                        Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 ET
                        Tennessee: 2-10 ATS versus division opponents
                        Houston: 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game

                        Miami at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
                        Miami: 6-0 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
                        Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

                        Carolina at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
                        Carolina: 9-1 ATS after a playing a game where 19 total points or less were scored
                        Buffalo: 81-50 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3

                        St. Louis at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
                        St. Louis: 8-20 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
                        Atlanta: 55-36 ATS off a road loss

                        Washington at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
                        Washington: WASHINGTON is 64-38 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
                        Green Bay: 37-21 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game

                        Dallas at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
                        Dallas: 3-13 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
                        Kansas City: 28-13 ATS in home games in non-conference games

                        Minnesota at Chicago, 1:00 ET
                        Minnesota: 19-6 OVER after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game
                        Chicago: 0-7 ATS off a non-conference game

                        New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 4:05 ET
                        New Orleans: 11-2 ATS off a home win
                        Tampa Bay: 31-11 UNDER in the first two weeks of the season

                        Detroit at Arizona, 4:05 ET
                        Detroit: 5-19 ATS as a road favorite
                        Arizona: 61-40 OVER in dome games

                        Jacksonville at Oakland, 4:25 ET
                        Jacksonville: 16-6 ATS in road games after a loss by 14 or more points
                        Oakland: 8-11 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog

                        Denver at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
                        Denver: 18-6 OVER against NFC East division opponents
                        NY Giants: 9-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

                        San Francisco at Seattle, 8:30 ET NBC
                        San Francisco: 34-53 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
                        Seattle: 7-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game


                        Monday, September 16, 2013

                        Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 8:40 ET ESPN
                        Pittsburgh: 30-15 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
                        Cincinnati: 10-22 ATS in home games in September

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          NFL

                          Week 2

                          Trend Report

                          Sunday, September 15

                          1:00 PM
                          CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
                          Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
                          Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Cleveland

                          1:00 PM
                          CAROLINA vs. BUFFALO
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games on the road
                          Carolina is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games on the road
                          Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games

                          1:00 PM
                          MIAMI vs. INDIANAPOLIS
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
                          Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

                          1:00 PM
                          ST. LOUIS vs. ATLANTA
                          The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
                          St. Louis is 8-15-1 SU in its last 24 games ,
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games at home
                          Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

                          1:00 PM
                          DALLAS vs. KANSAS CITY
                          Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games on the road
                          Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 15 games at home

                          1:00 PM
                          WASHINGTON vs. GREEN BAY
                          Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
                          Washington is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
                          The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home

                          1:00 PM
                          SAN DIEGO vs. PHILADELPHIA
                          San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
                          The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
                          Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
                          The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home

                          1:00 PM
                          TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Houston
                          Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
                          The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
                          Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

                          1:00 PM
                          MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
                          Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
                          Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games

                          4:05 PM
                          NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
                          The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
                          The total has gone OVER in 15 of New Orleans's last 22 games
                          The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
                          Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans

                          4:05 PM
                          DETROIT vs. ARIZONA
                          Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
                          Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
                          Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
                          Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

                          4:25 PM
                          DENVER vs. NY GIANTS
                          Denver is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
                          Denver is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
                          NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Denver
                          NY Giants are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home

                          4:25 PM
                          JACKSONVILLE vs. OAKLAND
                          Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
                          Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
                          Oakland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
                          Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

                          8:30 PM
                          SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games on the road
                          San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Seattle
                          Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
                          Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games


                          Monday, September 16

                          8:40 PM
                          PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
                          Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
                          The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
                          The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home
                          The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Chiefs CB Dunta Robinson is not expected to play in Week 2 due to a personal matter.
                            Robinson will miss Sunday's game to be with his cousin who was involved in a car accident this week

                            Giants RCB Prince Amukamara (concussion) has been cleared for Week 2.
                            Amukamara passed his concussion tests Friday and returned to a full practice

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              For those of you who monitor this type of thing, remember Washington/Illinois is being played at Soldier Field tonight (right now) and the Vikes/Bears play there tomorrow at noon. There is also rain in the forecast all thru gametime. We all know how bad that field is.

                              No, sir, I have no experience but I am a big fan of money. I like it, I use it, I have a little. I keep it in a jar on top of my refrigerator. Id like to put more in that jar. That is where you come in.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X