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NFL Betting Info. Week 1

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  • NFL Betting Info. Week 1

    Week 1 Line Moves
    By Kevin Rogers
    VegasInsider.com

    Some of the biggest line moves we'll see will happen in Week 1 after the initial numbers were released back in the spring. The LVH (Las Vegas Hotel and Casino) Sportsbook has made the proper adjustments heading into the season opening games as we'll take a look at why some of these games moved.

    Patriots at Bills

    LVH Opener: New England -7
    Current Line: New England -9½

    The Bills were leaning towards rookie E.J. Manuel as their opening day quarterback, but a minor knee surgery put the former Florida State standout on the shelf. Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion during the preseason, opening the door for ex-Washington State quarterback Jeff Tuel to get the starting nod in Week 1.

    Buccaneers at Jets

    LVH Opener: Pick-em
    Current Line: Tampa Bay -3½

    It's rare to see the Bucs listed in the road favorite role, but the quarterback issues in New York caused the line move. Mark Sanchez will sit out the opener after injuring his shoulder in the third preseason game, as rookie Geno Smith is set to make his debut in Week 1. Also, former Jets' cornerback Darrelle Revis will face his old team as a member of the Bucs following a torn ACL suffered last season.

    Chiefs at Jaguars

    LVH Opener: Kansas City -2½
    Current Line: Kansas City -3½

    The Jaguars look to be one of the bigger disasters in the NFL this season with their substandard quarterback play. Blaine Gabbert missed the final two games of the preseason, but the Jacksonville quarterback is hoping to play on Sunday.

    Vikings at Lions

    LVH Opener: Detroit -3
    Current Line: Detroit -5

    The money is starting to pour in on the Lions, who finished last season at a disappointing 4-12. Minnesota swept Detroit last season, but the Vikings stumbled to a 1-3 mark in the preseason.

    Raiders at Colts

    LVH Opener: Indianapolis -7
    Current Line: Indianapolis -9½

    Oakland is unsure about its starting quarterback heading into Sunday's matchup, but early indication is Terrelle Pryor will start ahead of Matt Flynn. Also, plenty of public money is headed the Colts way following their return to the playoffs last season.

    Cardinals at Rams

    LVH Opener: St. Louis -6
    Current Line: St. Louis -5

    St. Louis had its struggles in the preseason, as the improved NFC West will look for a boost from the Rams and Cardinals at the bottom of the division. Arizona won three of four exhibition games, while seeking revenge after getting swept by St. Louis in 2012.

    Eagles at Redskins

    LVH Opener: Washington -5½
    Current Line: Washington -3½

    The Redskins will start Robert Griffin III at quarterback just nine months after tearing his ACL in the playoff defeat to the Seahawks. The Eagles will stick with Michael Vick under center as Philadelphia hopes to use the uptempo offense of Chip Kelly to try and stun the Redskins.

  • #2
    The San Francisco Chronicle reports Terrelle Pryor will start the Raiders' Week 1 opener against the Colts.
    This isn't a surprise. The Raiders will likely wait until the last moment to announce Pryor as the starter, but all signs point to him being under center. Pryor took the first-team reps in Monday's practice. Matt Flynn will be the No. 2 and could even see some playing time in the opener.

    Comment


    • #3
      BALTIMORE vs. DENVER
      Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
      Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Denver
      Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
      Denver is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Baltimore
      PREAD.COM
      TAMPA BAY vs. NY JETS
      Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
      Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
      NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home
      NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
      HESPREAD.COM
      NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
      New England is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games when playing Buffalo
      The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games when playing at home against New England
      Buffalo is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing New England

      ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
      Atlanta is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
      New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

      MIAMI vs. CLEVELAND
      The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
      Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
      The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games
      Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

      CINCINNATI vs. CHICAGO
      The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Chicago
      Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
      Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

      TENNESSEE vs. PITTSBURGH
      Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
      Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
      Pittsburgh is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing Tennessee
      Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

      SEATTLE vs. CAROLINA
      Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
      Seattle is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
      Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

      MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
      Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
      Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

      KANSAS CITY vs. JACKSONVILLE
      Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
      Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
      Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home

      OAKLAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
      Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
      Oakland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
      Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home

      GREEN BAY vs. SAN FRANCISCO
      Green Bay is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games when playing San Francisco
      Green Bay is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
      San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
      The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games

      ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
      Arizona is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing St. Louis
      The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 10 games when playing St. Louis
      The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
      The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games

      NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
      The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 8 games
      NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
      Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at home
      The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games at home

      PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON

      The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 10 games on the road
      The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing on the road against Washington
      Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Philadelphia
      Washington is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

      HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO
      Houston is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
      Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
      The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 13 games
      San Diego is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

      NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
      NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England
      NY Jets are 1-3-1 SU in their last 5 games ,
      New England is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
      New England10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games

      Comment


      • #4
        Week 1 Divisional Games
        Sportspic.com

        With the first week of NFL picks getting closer for sports handicappers, this article will take a look at some of the trends that might factor into the six divisional games that dot the schedule during that opening weekend.

        Divisional games are always important for teams down the stretch, but how do things usually turn out for a divisional favorite when it’s the first game on a team’s schedule?

        There are three early divisional games on that first Sunday: New England (-7.5) at Buffalo; Minnesota at Detroit (-3.5); and Atlanta at New Orleans (-3). Later on, Arizona heads to St. Louis (-6); the Giants play in Dallas (-2.5) on Sunday night; and the first of the two Monday night games will have Philadelphia at Washington (-4.5).

        For New England, recent history isn’t in their favor to cover the betting line that first week, since Week 1 road favorites have just a 3-7 ATS mark since 2010. However, those looking at totals should note that the Under has provided many winning NFL picks over the last decade, with a 15-8 mark.

        In Detroit, things might have a more positive tint for sports handicappers when they realize that since 2003, home favorites of between -3.5 and -5.5 have beaten the pointspread in seven of the ten games that fit that criteria. That bodes well for the Lions.

        It also bodes well for the Saints, since the numbers are close to the same when you include those games in which the pointspread is just a field goal, In those cases, the home favorite has a 9-4-1 ATS mark. When the sports handicapping microscope looks at just Week 1 games in which the line is -3, the numbers get even better, and from a wider range: since 1990, Week 1 home favorites of exactly -3 have an 8-1-1 ATS mark.

        When Arizona touches down in St. Louis, it will be interested to note that over the past decade, home teams that have been favored from -5 to -7 in a divisional head-to-head have covered the pointspread in just four of 12 games. Obviously, that doesn’t mean the Rams are headed for defeat, but it certainly gets the attention of anyone whose interest leans in finding possible NFL picks.

        In the Sunday night battle, while the Cowboys recent history is nothing they’d care to remember, they should be aware of this bit of history: since 1990, Week 1 home favorites of less than a field goal have managed to beat the betting line often, sporting a 9-3-1 ATS mark. If that span of years is too much for some, since 2007, home teams in this category have a 3-0-1 mark.

        Finally, the betting line for the early Monday night matchup has danced around, so we’ll look at teams that have been favored from between -4 and -6. Going all the way back to 1990 offers a ho-hum 10-7 ATS record, but over the past decade is a much more notable 5-2 mark.

        These offerings are based on historical precedence, but like any sports handicapping premise, they are hardly a guarantee. Until September 8, such projections will have to do.

        Comment


        • #5
          Week 1 Conference Games
          Sportspic.com

          In-conference games play a subtly important role when it comes to games down the stretch, but like we asked yesterday, how do teams approach such a game when it comes in the first week of the season?

          Finding out some sort of sports handicapping strategy for making football picks in this subset for that first week is especially important this year, with eight games fitting this category.

          Those games (with early lines included) are: Baltimore at Denver (-8.5); Miami (-1) at Cleveland; Oakland at Indianapolis (-7); Kansas City (-3) at Jacksonville; Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7); Seattle (-3) at Carolina; Green Bay at San Francisco (-4); and the latter Monday Night game, Houston (-3) at San Diego.

          In the case of three of those games, the imposing pointspread of -7 or more make up the largest betting lines for the week.

          With respect to the Ravens-Broncos contest, there have been nine in-conference matchups in that special game that began in 2003, with the home team compiling a 4-2-1 ATS mark.

          For the other two clashes, when the total has been below 45, as it is with the Steelers-Titans game, the Over has been one of the solid NFL picks with both a 6-3 ATS and totals record. Going above 45 (like the Colts-Raiders) has seen the Over be successful on each of the four occasions it’s been played.

          In the case of the Niners-Packers battle, home teams since 2002 that are within the narrow framework as a favorite of from -3.5 to -4.5, have gone over the total in five of the seven games played.

          That leaves the four games that feature a home underdog. Two notable numbers that stand out are that since 2009, the road favorite has covered the pointspread in five of six games, while the Over has a 3-1-2 mark in those contests.

          In the lone NFC contest with road chalk, the under had also been the way to go from 2001-08, with nine straight unders. However, in the past four seasons, the Over has been the call with a 4-0-2 mark.

          Comment


          • #6
            NFL Betting Week #1
            By Carlo Campanella
            Sportspic.com

            Baseball bettors already know that the money line can offer tremendous value, only having to handicap the winner of the game, rather than worry about how many points they'll win by. We'll discuss the NFL money line for week #1 action, but in the future, we'll talk about betting parlays, teasers and other wagering options.

            The money line that stands out in Week One's football picks is one of the two Monday Night Football games. The Houston Texans (-150) are favored by 3-points at San Diego (+$130). For those of us that don't usually bet the money line, you only need to select the winner of the game WITHOUT the point spread. The -150 means that you would wager $150 to win $100. So, if the Texans win you collect the $100, but if the Texans lose, you'd pay $150. In this same game, the underdog Chargers are +130, meaning that anyone betting the Charger would bet $100 to win $130, or collect $130 if San Diego won, but would pay only $100 if they lost the wager.

            Why do the Texans offer value when it comes to football picks on the money line? First off, these Texans have gone 20-6 outright during their last 26 games which they are favored to win. This means if you bet Houston the last 26 games they were favored on the money line, you would have collected 20 games and only lost 6 times! They've won their season opener 3 straight years behind Head Coach Gary Kubiak, winning ALL 3 of those openers by double-digits; 10, 20 and 24 point victories! Houston was a solid 12-4 last season, while allowing opponents to just 21 points per game, holding six of those 16 foes to 13 points or less.

            Expect those numbers to only get better this season as the Texans added free safety Ed Reed from the Super Bowl champion Ravens' defense. The Texans were solid road warriors last year, posting a 6-2 record away from home, only losing to the Patriots and Colts, both were playoff teams that went 7-1 and 6-2 at home last year.

            They'll open against a Chargers squad that plays their first game behind new Head Coach, Mike McCoy, who was formerly Denver's offensive coordinator. Don't expect McCoy to win his first game as an NFL head coach, especially against a playoff-caliber squad like these Texans. For this free football pick

            Play On: Houston Texans (-180 Money Line)

            Comment


            • #7
              Fastest & Slowest Starters to the NFL Betting Season

              Week 1 of the NFL schedule is quickly approaching and teams and coaches are fine-tuning their games, looking to peak just before the season opener.

              Some NFL teams have been consistent strong starters while others have stumbled out of the gate each year. Here are the best and worst bets in the first three games of the season over the past three years:

              Quickest starters

              Houston Texans (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS over first three games since 2010)

              The Texans were a profitable 3-0 SU and ATS through the first three weeks of the 2012 schedule, taking cake-walk wins over Jacksonville and Miami before holding off the Broncos in Denver in Week 3. This season, Houston plays two of its first three contests on the road – at San Diego on Monday night in Week 1(-3) and at Baltimore in Week 3 (+2.5) – bookending a home date with Tennessee in Week 2 (-7.5).

              Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS over first three games since 2010)

              The Bucs started 1-2 SU last year but covered in all three of those games, prompting a profitable year for Tampa Bay bettors, who finished 10-5-1 ATS. The Buccaneers were underdogs in losses at New York and Dallas in Weeks 2 and 3 and opened the schedule with a home win over Carolina. Tampa Bay kicks off 2013 with a road trip to play the Jets (-2.5), at home to the Saints in Week 2 (+1.5) and at New England in Week 3 (+7.5).

              Atlanta Falcons (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS over first three games since 2010)

              The Falcons are classic fast starters but have fallen on their faces at the end of the season and playoffs. Atlanta was 3-0 SU and ATS to open 2012 thanks to some short spreads, winning at Kansas City as a 1-point fave, beating Denver at home as 3-point chalk and knocking off the Bolts on the road as a field-goal dog. The Falcons’ first three weeks of 2013 feature an opener at New Orleans (+2.5), a home game vs. St. Louis (-7), and a visit to Miami in Week 3 (+1).

              Slowest starters

              Philadelphia Eagles (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS over first three games since 2010)

              Philadelphia’s struggles in 2012 were well documented by the media, going 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS versus the likes of Cleveland, Baltimore and Arizona in the first three weeks. The Eagles only managed to come through for bettors three times all season. This time around, Philly visits Washington (+4.5) on Monday night in Week 1 then is back home to host San Diego (-2.5) and Kansas City (-3) on Thursday Night Football. With a new head coach and system in place, the Eagles could be doomed for another slow start.

              Denver Broncos (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS over first three games since 2010)

              Even with Peyton Manning under center, the Broncos couldn’t avoid a third straight 1-2 SU and ATS start to the season in 2012. Denver needed an epic comeback versus Pittsburgh in Week 1, and lost at Atlanta and vs. Houston the following weeks. Peyton & Co. have another tough go-around to open 2013, hosting Baltimore in the Thursday night opener (-8.5), visiting the Giants for the “Manning Bowl” in Week 2 (-1) and welcoming Oakland to Mile High on Monday night in Week 3 (-13.5). That’s a lot of chalk for Broncos bettors to deal with.

              New Orleans Saints (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS over first three games since 2010)

              New Orleans is putting 2012 in the rearview, opening the schedule in the shadow of “Bounty Gate” with a 0-3 SU and ATS blemish. The Saints didn’t have the biggest uphill climb either, losing to Washington, Carolina and Kansas City. Sean Peyton is back on the sideline and game planning for a Week 1 home showdown with Atlanta (-2.5), a trip to Tampa Bay in Week 2 (-1.5), and a home date vs. Arizona in Week 3 (-7.5). Books are expecting big things in the Big East this year.

              Other notables:

              Carolina Panthers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)

              San Diego Chargers (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS)

              San Francisco 49ers (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)

              Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)

              Comment


              • #8
                Three NFL Teams Sharps are Fading this Offseason

                Not one single snap has been taken in the 2013 NFL season but plenty of sharp handicappers already have their minds made up on a handful of teams.

                With the release of early odds, like win totals, Games of the Year, and futures, bettors can voice their opinion well before Week 1 of the schedule. We talked to sportsbooks and pro handicappers about which NFL teams are being faded by the wiseguys this summer.

                Sharps don’t like…

                New England Patriots

                Win total: 11 (Over +115)
                Division odds: -400
                Super Bowl odds: +800

                It’s been a crappy offseason for the Patriots. Wes Welker jumped ship to Denver, Rob Gronkowski is still not 100 percent, and the less we say about Aaron Hernandez’s summer the better. Tom Brady lost his three favorite targets. Can Bill Belichick “Belichick” New England out of this mess?

                Expert opinion: Michael Stewart, CarbonSports, “Our biggest move so far is the Pats, for all the reasons you think of. They've lost two of their best receivers in Hernandez (jail), Welker (Broncos) and with Gronk not 100 percent going into Week 1, many people are down on them. We've gone from 11.5 (Under -130) to 11 (Under -145), which is a monster move for an NFL season win total.”

                Baltimore Ravens

                Win total: 8.5 (Over -140)
                Division odds: +200
                Super Bowl odds: +3,000

                Sharps are treating the Ravens Super Bowl title as lightning in a bottle – a one-time run. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are gone, leaving an aging Terrell Suggs and QB Joe Flacco to pick up the leadership slack. Baltimore did add LB Elvis Dumervil to improve the pass rush but loss eight starters from that championship roster.

                Expert opinion: Bruce Marshall, “We’ll see if the subtle adjustment made by offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, allowing QB Joe Flacco more audible freedom after Cam Cameron’s December dismissal, keeps Flacco soaring as he was late last season when tossing 15 touchdowns and only one pick in the last seven games during the Ravens’ Super Bowl run.”

                Indianapolis Colts

                Win total: 8.5 (Over -125)
                Divisional odds: +240
                Super Bowl odds: +4,000

                The Colts proved everyone wrong in 2012, riding rookie QB Andrew Luck and drawing inspiration from head coach Chuck Pagano’s battle with leukemia to win 11 games and make the postseason cut. Indianapolis was lucky in a lot off those close games, something sharps aren’t counting on in 2013.

                Expert opinion: Marc Lawrence, “Indy ran into all sorts of good 'Luck' last season winning nine of their 11 games by a touchdown or less, including seven victories by four or less points. A nine-game improvement from a two-win team in 2011 far exceeded expectations. Expect a combination of sophomore blues by Andrew Luck and a serious bounce to leave the Colts losers in 2013."

                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL Top 3: Teams Shallow at Skill Positions

                  With cut day now behind us, all 32 NFL teams have settled on their initial 53-man rosters for the coming season. And while most clubs had little trouble purging their rosters, the cuts - combined with a lack of initial depth - have left a handful of teams short at key offensive positions.

                  Here are three units in need of a few extra skill players:

                  Buffalo Bills quarterbacks

                  With E.J. Manuel expected to miss the opener with a left knee injury and Kevin Kolb's career possibly over due to concussion issues, undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel is slated to start under center in the Bills' season opener against the New England Patriots. Manuel is considered Buffalo's QB of the future, but it might not hurt to find an experienced backup to replace Kolb.

                  Free-agent options: Vince Young, John Skelton, Tim Tebow

                  Baltimore Ravens running backs

                  It isn't that the Ravens will struggle in the backfield - Ray Rice is one of the most talented running backs in the league, and Bernard Pierce is a capable backup. But here's the problem: As of Sunday's 53-man roster deadline, Rice and Pierce are the only running backs on the Baltimore roster. Expect a depth addition in the coming days.

                  Free-agent options: Michael Turner, Lance Ball, Jonathan Dwyer

                  Detroit Lions receivers

                  When you boast the league's most explosive receiver in Calvin Johnson, it's hard to consider the position a weak spot. But with the ordinary Nate Burleson and project Ryan Broyles behind him, Detroit could stand to benefit from having another elite pass-catcher - particularly if Johnson struggles or suffers an injury.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Does High-Scoring NFL Preseason Give Value to Week 1 Overs?

                    If the high-scoring preseason storm clouds are any indication, NFL teams will be raining down points during the 2013 regular season.

                    The NFL’s exhibition schedule has produced an unusual amount of high-scoring games in August, helping fans of the Over cash in at a near 60 percent rate (60.32%) during the preseason. That flood of “overs” has caught the eye of one NFL handicapper, who is bracing for a surplus of scoring this season.

                    “First impression from the preseason is that with a plethora of scoring, a new standard will likely be set on NFL totals this season,” Marc Lawrence says. “In a pass-happy league, the oddsmakers were forced to raise the bar last season. With other teams now toying with the pistol, the roof could be blown open this season.”

                    Scoring has steadily climbed the past few seasons, from teams averaging 21.5 points per game in 2009, 22.0 in 2010, 22.2 in 2011, and 22.8 in 2012. More NFL teams are turning to up-tempo, pass-heavy attacks, leaving only three teams that ran more than passed last year. Eleven teams threw the ball on more than 60 percent of their plays, compared to just three the previous season.

                    Oddsmakers are making the necessary adjustments to the 2013 totals. The average over/under on the 2012 Week 1 board was just below 44 points, with teams posting a 9-7 over/under count in the opening slate. This season, the average Week 1 total is almost 45.5 points.

                    “Totals have gone up quite a bit overall,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook. “This is the first season that I can remember that every game has a total of at least 40 points. Main reason behind this is that more and more teams are pass-first type offenses.”

                    Perry says the eye-opening Over trend in the preseason doesn’t have any impact on the regular season totals, stating that these results are coming with third and fourth-string players on the field. He also notes the common belief that Week 1 totals are usually lower compared to the rest of season, due to the fact that many offenses are still working out their timing in the opening weeks of the schedule.

                    “We do consider that some teams are still fine tuning their offense, so we may not have the total as high as you may think,” he says, pointing to the New York Jets’ QB troubles.

                    New York hosts Tampa Bay in Week 1 with a total between 39.5 and 40 points on the board – the lowest Week 1 number. The highest over/under goes to the NFC South showdown between Atlanta and New Orleans, which has garnered a total of 54 points.

                    According to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports, there hasn’t been a significant lean toward the Over when it comes to the early Week 1 action. Of the 16 games on the board, only seven have taken more money on the Over than the Under with one game split down the middle.

                    The New England Patriots were the top Over bet in the NFL last year, posting an 11-5 over/under mark. The Patriots passed the ball on 57 percent of their offensive plays and ran a league-high 74.3 plays per game with their no-huddle offense. The total is set at 49 for their opening game against the Buffalo Bills, despite the Bills QB issues this summer.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      According to Peter Schrager of FOXSports.com, Bills head coach Doug Marrone is expected to name E.J. Manuel the Bills’ Week 1 starter on Wednesday.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        NFL Week 1

                        Ravens @ Broncos —
                        Baltimore hit 70-yard TD pass in last minute to force OT and stun Broncos here in LY’s playoffs, but Lewis/Reed/Boldin/Pitta are all gone, and Denver (12-1 in last 13 home openers, 9-4 vs spread) has revenge motive for season opener. Broncos will miss suspended LB Miller; they were 6-1 vs spread as HFs LY, after being 5-24-2 from ‘06-’11; addition of Welker at WR should make their offense even better. Ravens covered five of last seven road openers, are 11-6 as regular season road dogs under Harbaugh, which doesn’t include three road covers in LY’s playoffs. First time in decade Super Bowl champs open on road; ’03 Bucs won 17-0 at Philly in similar scenario decade ago. Last ten SB champs are 6-2-2 vs spread in season opener the next year.

                        Patriots @ Bills — New England is 23-2 in last 25 series games, 8-1 in last nine visits here, with seven of eight wins by 13+ points, but 36-year old Brady is without his top five receivers from LY, so hard to say how their passing attack will fare. Since ’04, NE is 33-20-1 as AF; they’re 17-6-2 in last 25 games as a divisional AF, 5-2 in last seven road openers, 6-3 as favorite in road openers. New coach, new QB for Buffalo, but not sure if it'll be Kolb or rookie Manuel yet. Bills are 3-9-1 in last 13 games as an AFC East home dog, 5-9-1 overall as home dog since 2008. Bills covered four of last five home openers, with four of those five games going over total. Average total in last four series games is 70.8. Over last three seasons, Patriots are +70 in turnovers, Buffalo -31.

                        Titans @ Steelers — Pittsburgh won its last ten home openers, going 8-2 vs spread, 7-2 as favorites; their last four home openers stayed under total, as have 13 of Titans’ last 16 road openers. Pitt won three of last four games vs Titans, winning by 3-8-21 points. Tennessee lost four of last five visits here, with three of last four losses by 21+ points- they’re 6-6 as road dogs under Munchak, 5-4 in non-divisional games. Since ’06, Titans are 28-19-1 as single digit dogs. Steelers are -23 in turnovers last two years, after being +31 from ’04-’10; they’re going to try and run ball more, to take heat off defense/Big Ben, but OL hasn't looked good in exhibitions. Over last three years, Pitt is 9-6 vs spread in non-divisional home games; they’re 22-22-1 as HFs under Tomlin. Titans lost 16-14/ 38-10 in road openers under Munchak.

                        Falcons @ Saints — Payton returns to Superdome sidelines after year suspension. Saints are 11-3 in last 14 renewals of this 46-year old rivalry; Falcons lost eight of last nine visits here, with four of eight losses by 8+ points. Saints covered five of last six NFC South home games; they’re 8-4 in last dozen games with spread of 3 or less points, but under Smith, Atlanta is 23-10-2 vs spread in low spread games. Falcons are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 tries as road dog, but just 2-5 in last seven as a divisional road dog- they’ve lost five of last six road openers, with seven of their last nine going under total; Payton is 3-0-1 in last four tries as favorite in HO. 11 of Saints’ last 16 Superdome openers also stayed under, but nine of last 11 series totals were 48+.

                        Buccaneers @ Jets — Revis returns to old home with former Rutgers coach Schiano; Tampa Bay is 26-47 SU on road since ’04, 6-11-1 vs spread in last 18 games as road favorite. Bucs lost five of last seven road openers, with four of last five going over total. Rex is 3-1 in home openers here; they were 4-13 in last 17 HOs before he became coach. Jets won nine of ten games vs Bucs, winning all six played here, with four of six wins by 15+ points. Jets are 3-2 as home dogs under Ryan, but 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games vs NFC foes. Gang Green is 15-10 under Ryan in games with spread of 3 or less points, 10-7 at home. Not sure how much home field edge Gang Green has if they get off to rough start; two new coordinators, HC with reduced influence, major QB dilemma.

                        Chiefs @ Jaguars — Two teams breaking in new coaches; Reid is only one of eight new NFL HCs this year who has been HC previously- he’s a good one, winning his last four road openers, but Chiefs are 3-6 in this series, losing four of five visits here, with only win in ’01. This is teams’ first meeting in three years. Since 2007, KC is 1-10-1 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points- they were 0-5 LY in games with spread of 3 or less, part of reason why coaching change was made- they’re 3-8 in. Bradley was DC in Seattle; since ’07, Jags are 8-18 vs spread as dogs of 3 or less points- they’re 8-16 vs spread in last 24 games as home dog, 3-8 as non-divisional home dog. Over last five years, Chiefs are just 12-28 SU on road- they are 1-2 as road favorites since ’07, favored in only three of last 48 road tilts.

                        Bengals @ Bears — Edge to Cincy for having same HC/QB/coordinators as LY, while Chicago brought QB guru Trestman in from CFL to mentor star signal caller Cutler. Smith was just 4th coach since 1990 to get canned after winning 10+ games that season- new systems usually take some getting used to. Cincy won four of last five series games; they won four of five visits here, are 13-4-1 vs spread in last 18 games vs NFC opponents. Bengals are 4-10 in last 14 road openers (4-5 as road dog in road openers) with five of last six going over total. Bears won seven of last eight home openers, with over 7-4 in their last 11. Cincy is 10-6-1 vs spread in last 17 games as an underdog. Since ’07, Bears are 12-19-1 as home favorites, 7-13-1 in non-divisional games, but they’re 6-4-2 vs spread in last dozen games vs NFC foes.

                        Dolphins @ Browns — Not sure what to expect from Browns’ new head coach Chudzinski, but OC Turner is superior coordinator and will improve play of 2nd-year QB Weeden, who is older than most 2nd-year guys, having played six years of minor leaguer baseball. This is 15th season for “new” Browns; they’ve been 1-0 once in previous 14 years, going 1-13 vs spread in home openers, with seven of last ten home openers staying under total. Miami lost eight of last nine road openers, with 14 of last 19 (and last four in row) staying under total- they’ve lost last four games vs Browns, last two by total of four points. Fish lost last three visits here, by 10-1-22 points. Unusually strong stat for Dolphins: since 2003, under a few coaches, they’re 32-16-2 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

                        Seattle @ Carolina — Seahawk defense will be weakened early in year by 4-game suspensions, but they’re fashionable pick to win NFC and have quality depth; Hawks are 14-5-1 vs spread in non-divisional games last two years, but they’ve also lost last six road openers and failed to cover last eight. Seattle is 14-34 SU on road last six years; they’re 1-4 as road favorites under Carroll, 5-12-1 in last 18 games on grass, 5-12 in last 17 games as a favorite of 3 or less points. Cam Newton gets new OC (Chudzinski left to be Browns’ HC) in former Bama coach Shula, not an upgrade. Panthers are 9-13 as home dog since 2006, 7-13 in last 20 non-divisional home games, 2-7 in last nine home openers (3-10 vs spread in last 13) and 7-6 in last 13 games where spread is 3 or less points. Home team won five of six series games; Seahawks’ 16-12 win here LY was their first in three visits here, in state where Russell Wilson played three of his four college years.

                        Minnesota @ Detroit — Vikings traded up to get WR Patterson in effort to balance offense by upgrading passing game to take pressure off star RB Peterson. Minnesota is 22-5 in last 27 series games (won 20-13/34-24 LY); home teams won five of last seven in series, as Vikes lost two of last three here after winning seven of eight here before that. Minnesota’s last five series wins are by 7+ points, their last seven series losses are by 7 or less points. Since 2008, Vikings are 3-8 as divisional road underdog; they’ve lost seven of last nine road openers, dropping last three by 5-7-3 points. Detroit is 11-5-1 vs spread in last 17 home openers, with four of last five going over total; Lions are 3-5-2 in last 10 tries as a divisional home favorite- they’re 8-3-4 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points, 8-8 as home favorite overall in Schwartz era. Seven of Vikings’ last nine road openers stayed under the total.

                        Oakland @ Indianapolis — Odd stat on Raiders; they’re 11-23 vs spread in last 35 games as a non-divisional road underdog, 18-2 in last 20 games as a divisional road dog- overall since ’08, they’re 22-17 as road dogs, but covered just four of last 19 games on artificial turf. Colts lost OC Arians to Arizona, brought in Luck’s old OC from Stanford; they’re 11-17 as home favorites since ’08, 3-7 in non-divisional games. Indy won eight of last ten home openers, covering six, but most of that was with Manning under center. Oakland covered four of last five as an underdog in road openers; QB Pryor is making his first road start. Raiders are 8-6 in series, losing last three, with road team winning four of last five meetings; this is Oakland’s first visit to Indy since 2004- they won two of three prior visits. Over is 10-3-1 in last 14 Raider road openers.

                        Arizona @ St Louis — Cardinals hired Arians as HC, Palmer as QB to upgrade offense that finished last in rushing three of last five years, and gave up 162 sacks last three years (-49); they’re 4-20 SU in last 24 road games, but have won seven of last eight visits here, their former home. Rams upgraded OL and have new WRs, expectations are higher for QB Bradford in Fisher’s second year as HC. St Louis swept Redbirds 17-3/31-17 LY, after losing 10 of previous 11 games in this divisional rivalry. St Louis has no recent successful trends; they’re 9-19 in last 28 games as a home favorite, 2-10 in divisional games; they’ve lost five of last six home openers (1-6-1 as favorite in HO’s), while Arizona won four of last five road openers, covering all five games under previous HC Whisenhunt (now OC in San Diego). Cardinals are 8-6-1 as road dog last two years, but covered just two of last seven as a road dog vs NFC West opponents. Four of last six series totals were 32 or less.

                        Green Bay @ San Francisco — Last year was first time in decade Super Bowl loser covered its opener the next year. 49ers beat Pack twice LY, 30-22 in opener at Lambeau, then 45-31 in home playoff game, ending 1-13 series skid (five of 13 losses were playoff games) vs Green Bay, which is 6-2 in last eight visits here, with last win back in ’06. Niners are +37 in turnovers in two seasons under Harbaugh; they were -21 the four years before that; they’ve got injury issues (Crabtree/Willis) early this year, and are still looking for decent backup QB behind Kaepernick, with Smith off to KC. SF is 11-3-1 as HF under Harbaugh, 8-1 in non-divisional games- since ’09, they’re 23-7-1 SU at home. Packers won six of last seven road openers; they’re 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy, but they’re 4-6 in last ten non-divisional road games. Niners won six of last eight home openers; they’re 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten. Last five series totals were all 49+.

                        Giants @ Dallas — Cowboys are hideous 3-17 as home favorite under Garrett; they’ve covered only five of last 21 divisional home games, are 5-12-1 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. Enter 73-year old (new DC) Monte Kiffin, whose mission is to upgrade Dallas defense that allowed 34 ppg in losing its last four home games to Giants, who are 8-3 in last 11 games vs Cowboys, with road team winning five of last six meetings. Big Blue covered seven of last ten tries as road underdog, 14 of last 21 divisional road games- they’re 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games where spread was 3 or less. Cowboys are 5-2 in last seven home openers, but failed to cover last five, all as favorites. Giants are 7-5 as dogs in road openers, 4-3 in last seven SU; 11 of their last 13 road openers went over total. Giants have some injury issues on OL, potential problem for less-than-mobile QB Manning. Seven of last eight series totals were 45+.

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                        • #13
                          Thursday, September 5

                          Baltimore at Denver

                          Baltimore: 6-1 Over in the first month of the season
                          Denver: 10-2 ATS as a favorite

                          Sunday, September 8

                          New England at Buffalo

                          New England: 31-16 ATS away with a total of 45.5+ points
                          Buffalo: 11-3 Over in the first half of the season

                          Tennesse at Pittsburgh
                          Tennesse: 4-0 Over vs. AFC North opponents
                          Pittsburgh: 46-23 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

                          Atlanta at New Orleans
                          Atlanta: 7-3 Over away with a total of 49.5+ points
                          New Orleans: 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

                          Tampa Bay at NY Jets
                          Tampa Bay: 7-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
                          New York Jets: 2-6 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

                          Kansas City at Jacksonville
                          Kansas City: 27-13 Under in the first two weeks of the season
                          Jacksonville: 5-11 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

                          Cincinnati at Chicago
                          Cincinnati: 5-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
                          Chicago: 15-10 Over playing on a grass field

                          Miami at Cleveland
                          Miami: 7-3 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
                          Cleveland: 24-8 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less

                          Seattle at Carolina
                          Seattle: 19-7 ATS vs. conference opponents
                          Carolina: 9-1 Over as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

                          Minnesota at Detroit

                          Minnesota: 12-6 ATS with a total of 42.5 to 49 points
                          Detroit: 21-41 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

                          Oakland at Indianapolis
                          Oakland: 25-11 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
                          Indianapolis: 8-1 ATS playing in dome stadiums

                          Arizona at St. Louis
                          Arizona: 5-1 Under as a road underdog of 7 points or less
                          St Louis: 6-0 ATS vs. division opponents

                          Green Bay at San Francisco
                          Green Bay: 17-9 Over playing on grass fields
                          San Francisco: 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season

                          NY Giants at Dallas
                          NY Giants: 25-9 Under away with a total of 45.5+ points
                          Dallas: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite

                          Monday, September 9

                          Philadelphia at Washington

                          Philadelphia: 0-7 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
                          Washington: 6-0 ATS vs. division opponents

                          Houston at San Diego
                          Houston: 19-8 ATS vs. conference opponents
                          San Diego: 5-11 ATS in home games

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                          • #14
                            2-Minute Handicap
                            Playbook.com

                            Thursday, September 5

                            Baltimore SERIES: 6-2 L8... 5-0 SUATS Game One... 6-3 L9 RD's... 1-5 dogs 7 > pts... 1-4 in Thursday games
                            DENVER Broncos on 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS run LY before home playoff loss to Ravens... 9-0 O/U vs non-div opp w/OU line < 50 pts... 10-3 favs LY... 6-2 L8 HF's... 0-6 HF's 8 > pts Game 14 <

                            Sunday, September 8

                            New England SERIES: 8-1 L9A... 9-0 SU Game One... 29-12 away vs div... 13-6 L19 favs vs Bills... 0-4 O/U away w/OU line 51 > pts
                            BUFFALO Bills have allowed 40.2 PPG in L6 vs Patriots... 1-7 w/OU line 47 > pts... 1-5 HD's w/rev... 4-1 O/U Game One

                            Tennessee 4-0 dogs 1st of BB RG's... 8-2 dogs > 4 pts vs opp w/rev... 1-5 O/U Game One
                            PITTSBURGH 24-16 home w/rev... 1-11 favs before Cincinnati... 3-7 vs non-div LY

                            Atlanta SERIES: 1-4 L5... 3-0 L3 RD's... 2-8 SU L10 at New Orleans
                            NEW ORLEANS 12-3 L15 HF's... 15-26 home vs div... 4-1 O/U Game One

                            Tampa Bay 0-8 non-conf favs of 3 > pts... 1-5-1 Game One... 1-5 SUATS run to end '12
                            NY JETS SERIES: 7-0 L7... 3-7 SUATS run to end '12

                            Kansas City SERIES: 3-1 L4... 1-6 SU Game One... 0-4 SUATS run to end '12... only 4th time Chiefs have been made RF since start of 2007 season
                            JACKSONVILLE 12-2 Game One... 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS run to end '12... 2-5 HD's LY... 6-0-1 O/U vs AFC west

                            Cincinnati SERIES: 1-5 L6... 7-1 SUATS run before playoff loss at Houston... 14-7-1 vs non-div L2Y... 1-4 SU Game One
                            CHICAGO 4-1 SU Game One... 0-7-1 before Minnesota... 2-6 ATS run to end '12

                            Miami 39-24 away vs non-div... 0-5 favs vs AFC North... 1-5-1 Game One... 4-12 SU L16 away
                            CLEVELAND SERIES: 5-0 L5... 6-3 L9 HD's... 1-13 SU Game One

                            Seattle 16-5-1 vs non-div L2Y (23-10-1 overall)... 0-7 favs 2 > pts w/OU line 45 > pts... CARROLL: 9-18 SU away
                            CAROLINA 7-3 L10 dogs... 4-0 SUATS run to end '12... 0-4 SU Game One

                            Minnesota 13-7-1 dogs L2Y... 4-1 SUATS run to end '12... 7-19 SU away L3Y
                            DETROIT SERIES: 3-11-2 L16 (1-3 L4H)... 0-8 SU & 1-6-1 ATS run to end '12... 0-7 w/OU line > 47 pts... 3-9 L12 vs div... 5-1 O/U Game One

                            Oakland 1-9 SU Game One... 1-8 SU & 2-6-1 ATS run to end '12... 2-7-1 vs non-div LY (1-4 away)
                            INDIANAPOLIS SERIES: 2-5 L7... 7-1 home LY... 10-2 vs non-div Games 1-4... 0-5 Game One

                            Arizona 5-1 Game One... 4-20 SU away L3Y... Cards averaged just 17.7 PPG on offense L3Y
                            ST. LOUIS 6-0 vs div LY (11-5 overall)... 5-1 ATS run to end '12... 0-4 L4 HF's... 2-10 SUATS Game One...16-38 favs vs revenge (0-11 L11 vs div)

                            Green Bay SERIES: 4-1-1 L6... 5-1 Game One... 19-7 L26 as dogs
                            SAN FRANCISCO 12-5 L17 HF's... HARBAUGH: 5-0 fav < 5 pts / 9-1 vs non-div opp w/rev / 18-5-2 vs all non-div w/rev

                            Ny Giants SERIES: 4-0 L4A... 9-4 L13 RD's... 31-17 away w/rev... COUGHLIN: 8-0-1 L9 as dog
                            DALLAS 5-1 Game One... 1-8 vs div in Game 7 < ... 1-7 w/OU line 48 > pts... 3-16 L19 HF's... 6-22-1 favs L3Y

                            Monday, September 9

                            Philadelphia 8-0 RD's > 3 pts w/rev vs conf opp... 4-1 away on Mondays... 31-17 away w/rev...1-5 vs div Game 5 < ... 3-7 L10 dogs... 1-6-1 OU Game One... Won just 1 of last 12 games SU in '12
                            WASHINGTON SERIES: 1-3 L4H... 9-0 vs div w/OU line 47 > pts... 7-0 SUATS run before home playoff loss to Seattle... SHANAHAN: 14-4 L18 vs div (6-0 LY)

                            Houston SERIES: 0-4 L4... 16-8-2 favs L2Y (6-3-1 RF's)... 1-4 vs AFC West
                            SAN DIEGO 6-0 on Mondays... 1-7 w/OU line 46 > pts... 1-4 Game One... 2-6 L8 home

                            ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.

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                            • #15
                              Ravens vs. Broncos Point Spread and Pick
                              By: Mike Wilkening
                              Sportingnews.com

                              The first game of the NFL regular season may be the most compelling matchup of the entire Week 1 slate.

                              Baltimore or Denver? Denver or Baltimore? It is easy to have a strong feeling about either side of Thursday’s Ravens-Broncos tilt in Denver.

                              Underdog Baltimore appears to have gotten some respect, judging from the line movement.

                              The Broncos opened as 8.5-point favorites at the LVH SuperBook in April. In late August, the number hit 9, but by Tuesday, the line tumbled down to Denver -7.5 at the LVH and some other shops and -8 elsewhere. The total is 48.5 at the LVH, one point lower than the opener, although it can be found as low as 48 and as high as 49.

                              The Broncos were 9-point favorites at the LVH in last season’s divisional-round meeting between the clubs, so any line close to that for the September rematch would make sense. However, Broncos backers may point out that Denver was in control for most of the two matchups with Baltimore last season. To wit: In 136 minutes and 42 seconds of game action between the teams a season ago, Denver trailed for all of five minutes and 47 seconds, and they never were down more than a touchdown.

                              Still, the Broncos managed just a split, and they let the all-important postseason meeting get away from them in unforgettable fashion, as Ravens wideout Jacoby Jones got behind the secondary for the game-tying TD catch when just about all hope looked lost for Baltimore. Ultimately, the Ravens prevailed, 38-35 in overtime, snapping a nine-game losing streak to Peyton Manning-led teams. It also snapped an eight-game covers streak by those Manning-led-teams against Baltimore, per data from Marc Lawrence’s Stat and Log Books.

                              Ravens backers couldn’t be blamed for having confidence in the club in the third meeting between these teams in less than nine months. Of note: Baltimore scored as many offensive touchdowns (six) as the Broncos did in the two matchups last season. Plus, one-third of Denver’s nine touchdowns against Baltimore were on returns — a kickoff, a punt and an interception.

                              The first of those three scores occurred in the regular-season matchup, and was it ever a game-changer. With Baltimore trailing, 10-0, late in the second quarter and deep in Denver territory, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco was intercepted by Broncos cornerback Chris Harris, who took it back 98 yards for a touchdown. At the least, this was a 10-point swing, and it may well have been a 14-point swing in an eventual 34-17 Baltimore loss.

                              That Week 15 game was also the first with Jim Caldwell as the Ravens’ offensive coordinator. It also occurred when the Ravens were perhaps playing their worst football of the season. The loss to Denver was their third consecutive defeat.

                              By contrast, the Broncos were carrying an eight-game winning streak into the first Baltimore matchup. Denver would close out the regular season on an 11-game tear before the divisional-round heartbreak.

                              It’s a new season

                              Let’s take a moment to consider what’s changed for both clubs since last January.

                              Here’s the good news: The Broncos now have three outstanding receivers, with Wes Welker joining Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. The secondary may be even deeper than it was last season, with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie a solid addition at cornerback.

                              The Ravens, meanwhile, helped their pass rush — and at Denver’s expense — with the addition of outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil. Overall, the Ravens did well to address some needs in free agency. The Ravens also have the reigning Super Bowl MVP at quarterback in Flacco. Could he still have room to improve?

                              However, the Ravens’ talent base may not be better than it was in 2012. Certainly their experience took a hit with the departures of inside linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed. Losing outside linebacker Paul Kruger, inside linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and cornerback Cary Williams were further blows to a defense that hit its best stride when the stakes were highest last winter.

                              What’s more, Flacco doesn’t have the same caliber of targets to throw to in September that he had in January. The Ravens will miss Anquan Boldin’s toughness and dependability — and the 49ers will grow to love those attributes in short order. Flacco is also without tight end Dennis Pitta, who’s out for at least part of the season with a hip injury.

                              However, Flacco could still give the Broncos’ defense some major problems on Thursday night, considering Denver’s potential personnel issues on defense. Outside linebacker Von Miller (suspension) will miss the first six games of the season, and cornerback Champ Bailey is battling a foot injury. If Bailey is out, the Broncos’ secondary will be materially weakened against a Baltimore passing attack that was exceptionally sharp in the 2012 postseason.

                              That said, the Ravens’ offense may have to be on top of its game for Baltimore to hang in against Denver, which was 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS at home a season ago. After all, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has stood tall against a variety of Baltimore defenses stronger than this one. Say what you will about what Lewis and Reed may have had left late last season, but their presence wouldn’t have hurt Baltimore in a road opener on national television in the first game after winning a title.

                              The Ravens, who are 4-1 ATS in their last five road openers, per Lawrence, will need Dumervil, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs and defensive lineman Haloti Ngata to be at their very best on Thursday. Manning doesn’t take many sacks, but the Ravens at least need to collapse the pocket. Otherwise, a secondary with two new starters at safety (James Ihedigbo, Michael Huff) and some questions at cornerback could have some problems.

                              On top all of this, the Ravens can’t allow speedy Broncos return specialist Trindon Holliday to author another game-changing play like he did in the playoff meeting between the clubs a season ago. Even one long Holliday return, much less the two scores he registered in January, could be too much for Baltimore to overcome.

                              Super Bowl champions customarily open the season at home. The Ravens aren’t being afforded that courtesy, the result of a scheduling issue with the Baltimore Orioles, who play Thursday night at Camden Yards.

                              The point spread suggests the Ravens are not expected to win in Week 1, and it also indicates they could be in for a tough evening.

                              Of course, that’s what it indicated last January. And we know how that turned out.

                              The Linemakers’ lean: The Linemakers' Richie Baccellieri and Micah Roberts disagree on Thursday night’s NFL season opener. Richie doesn’t normally side with a favorite this large, but he likes the situation here where "there is rare revenge factor with the Broncos," who got embarrassed as AFC's No. 1 seed by the Ravens in the playoffs. He likes Peyton Manning to get the big win in this spot, and between the crowd and offense clicking, the Ravens won’t be able to keep up.

                              Roberts, while noting that bettors taking points are late to the party by missing out on +9, still thinks the gap between the two teams isn’t as great as the number currently posted (+7.5), especially without their top defender.

                              ”Manning will get his yardage, and the Broncos will put points on the board, but I have serious questions about how their defense is going to stop anyone," said Roberts. "Von Miller being out is a much bigger deal than people are talking about because he makes their bad secondary look better by making the opposing QB throw quicker. With him gone, that could mean an extra 1.8 seconds Joe Flacco has to throw, and the addition of new aging DBs to Denver's already bad mix of Rahim Moore, Mike Adams and a hurt Champ Bailey shouldn’t put much fear into Flacco.

                              "This should be a high-scoring game with Baltimore having a chance to win late.”

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