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  • College Football Betting Info. Week 1

    Week One CFB Thoughts
    By Dave Essler

    UMass-Wisconsin: OK, a line of 45 and a total of 53. I guess they figure that UMass won't score. Correlated play here, perhaps. With the Badgers have T-Tech the following week, this one has 48-3 written all over it. Badgers bring back way too many starters to think to much about taking those points, and UMass brings back nobody, basically. I thought about taking those points given that UMass at least PLAYED in Ann Arbor.

    Central Michigan-Michigan: Opened in places at 34.5 and down now to 31.5 or so. People probably suspect that Michigan will take it easy w/Notre Dame in week two, and I suspect that they will. However, CMU has some serious issues and after that Outback Bowl loss, I suspect the Wolverines are not going to screw around much here, and CMU may not score.

    Buffalo-Ohio State: Buffalo's defense is one of the better ones, if there is such a thing, in the MAC, and they bring most everyone back. Under rated team early, IMO. However, the Buckeyes have something to play for now. They played UGA pretty tough last year in week one, and clearly with the Miller hype there's points built into this line. With a total of 56 they're clearly expecting Buffalo to score.

    La Tech-NC State: With a big total like that you'd have to think NC State could cover this. Line hovered either side of 14, and I actually think the Wolfpack will not be as bad as some think, losing their QB. They've got transfers and experience, and a better than average (for the ACC) defense. La Tech brings back nobody from a team that could score on anyone but had no defense. NC State could cover this, and if I were them I'd worry more about Richmond (ATS) the following week.

    FIU-Maryland: What has happened to Coach Cristobals' team and bright future. I get that losing a 28 year old quarterback and TY Hilton has an effect, but to be 20 point dogs to Maryland is saying something. I know the Terps bring back a lot of people, but they just didn't have an overly viable offense last year. However, Edsell should have them that much better, and this may be a big number for a reason. With a total of 50, I do lean Terps with their renewed enthusiasm.

    Northern Illinois-Iowa: Nothern Illinois brings back far too many people and their QB not to be considered here. The very fact that they are only +3 on the road to an Big Ten team pretty much sums that up. Their only regular season loss last year was to these guys, at home, by one. Iowa brings back a lot of a decent defense, no offense, team. Low scoring game that Northern Illinois could win.

    Temple-Notre Dame: Irish by more than four touchdowns with a total of 50. So, are they saying Temple finds a way to score, or that the Irish name the score. With Michigan in week two, the Owls do bring back a lot of people from a team that wasn't as bad as their record indicated last year, and only two years removed from "very good". Not laying those points here.

    BYU-Virginia: One of the better, potentially, matchups this week. I know how good BYU can be. What I do worry about here is that it's going to be hot and humid here, and that's certainly not what Utah is like. Given that UVA is breaking in a new QB, I lean to the under in this one, and almost because of the weather, like BYU 1H and perhaps UVA 2H if the score is right.

    Troy-UAB: This is not your father's Troy team that could and did score at will, and they bring back nobody. If this were in UAB I'd have to think that UAB would be favored, so all tradition aside, I like UAB here. Most likely the last team with the ball wins, but 64 is a lot of points for teams with so few returning starters. Troy beat them 39-29 at UAB last year, and I think UAB returns the favor here.

    Cincinnati-Purdue: Line opens at about 7 and total disrespect for a Big Ten team since it's now -10. Honestly, I do not know how Purdue is going to score much this year, or any year since Drew Brees left. Bearcats bring back almost their entire offense, and a team that took Louisville to OT on the road (if memory is right) last year. I guess the only real question here is if the line has gone too far. Honestly, I think 49 points is probably too many, if for no other reason than Cincinnati plays at Illinois the following week, which I suppose could leave the back door open. Nah.

    Kentucky-WKU: Total disrespect for Kentucky here. Line opens at -7 or so on the road and now down to -4.5 or so. I know Kentucky is simply not an SEC team, and they DID beat Kentucky last season in Rupp Arena. OK, on the football field. WKU has the Vols in Knoxville in week two. Hilltoppers actually had a closed practice today. I didn't know Sun Belt teams actually did that. I suppose there's a reason this line is where it is, and the game is actually in Nashville, at LP Field. If Kentucky loses this game (they might) they should get kicked out of the SEC.

    Miami (OH)-Marshall: This is not Matthew McConaughey's Marshall team, and I just don't know how they're 20 point favorites to too many people. But, they do bring back most everyone from an offense that was first in the nation in passing yards. However, they DO lose Antavious Wilson and Aaron Dobson, they second and third leading receivers. And Miami (OH) couldn't stop anyone last year, and is breaking in a new QB, so perhaps the Herd do roll here.

    Mississippi State-Oklahoma State: Griff? I happen to think the Cowboys do win this game going away. It's in Houston, so there may be a few MSU fans that make the trip, but this game means much more to Gundy and the Cowboys. Beating an SEC team on national TV, soundly, is not something they'll disregard here.

  • #2
    Week 1 Betting Notes
    By ASAWins.com

    Thursday, Aug. 29

    North Carolina at South Carolina (-11.5)

    These two schools used to meet regularly but this will be the first meetings since 2007. South Carolina will be opening its season without its top rusher, receiver, and top four tacklers from a year ago. UNC finished 7-2 in its final nine games of 2012 and HC Larry Fedora is in his second season with 13 returning starters, including top quarterback Bryn Renner (28 TD & 7 INT last season). North Carolina has dropped five straight games against ranked opponents. Three of those losses were by single digits and all were by an average of 10.4 points per game. South Carolina has won 13 straight season openers. Five of those wins were against BCS schools by an average of 16.4 points per game.

    Utah State at Utah (-4.5)

    Utah State won at home against Utah last season to snap a 12-game series losing streak. The Aggies went on to win the WAC and bowl game, finishing with an 11-2 record. Fourteen starters return, including star QB Chuckie Keeton, all five offensive linemen, and seven defenders. But gone is head coach Gary Anderson (left for Wisconsin). Last year Utah finished with its first losing season since 2002. The Utes have just 12 returning starters from that squad. They’ve won five straight home openers by an average of 20 points per game.

    Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (1.5)
    Vandy has won three straight and four of the last five years against Ole Miss. Vandy went on a 79 yard, nine play TD drive with :52 seconds remaining to beat the Rebels by one point. Ole Miss returns an astonishing 19 starters from a year ago and brought in one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. Vanderbilt is off of its 2nd winning season since 1982 and just its third bowl victory of all time. The Commodores return 13 starters from last year, including six of its top seven defenders. But they lost their top two offensive players from last year, QB Jordan Rodgers and RB Zac Stacy.

    Saturday, Aug. 31

    Purdue at Cincinnati (-14)


    The only previous meeting between these two was in 2001 and it’s also the last time Cincinnati dropped its home opener. Cincy finished 10-3 last year with a bowl victory. HC Butch Jones departed for Tennessee and Tommy Tuberville was named as the replacement. The Bearcats open this season as hefty 14-point favorites over Big Ten Purdue. The Boilers also have a new head coach after firing Danny Hope. Darrell Hazell takes over after coaching at Kent State the previous two seasons. Purdue returns eight starters on defense but just five on an offense that really struggled in 2012. Their top two quarterbacks, top rusher, and top receiver all have to be replaced. Purdue is just 1-6 in its last seven road openers, losing by an average of 7 points per game.

    Northern Illinois at Iowa (-6.5)

    Iowa is 8-0 all-time vs. NIU, winning by an average of 27 points per game. However, this isn’t the typical Huskies squad. The Huskies only regular season loss last season was by one-point to these Hawkeyes and they went on to play in their first BCS Bowl Game (21-point loss vs. Florida State). They are no stranger to the Big Ten either. NIU has played seven Big Ten opponents over the last five seasons and has a 6-1 ATS record in those games. They return MAC Player of the Year QB Jordan Lynch (44 total touchdowns in 2012) and will be a handful for the Hawkeyes.

    Oklahoma State (-13) vs. Mississippi State

    Mississippi State returns its QB, all five starting linemen, and top five rushers from a year ago. The Bulldogs will be breaking in an entirely new receiving corps after losing its top four pass-catchers. This will be MSU’s first BCS-conference regular season opponent since hosting Georgia Tech in 2009. Oklahoma State has 15 returning starters and is 4-1 in its last five games against BCS-conference opponents (only loss was last year at Arizona).

    Alabama (-18) vs. Virginia Tech

    Alabama has lost just five regular season games over the past five seasons, and none of those were against non-conference opponents. They are 20-0 in non-conference play over that span, including 6-0 both SU and ATS against BCS-conference opponents (winning by an average of 24.5 points per game). Virginia Tech is off of its first non-10-win season since 2003. Nine starters return on defense and Logan Thomas returns at QB after a sub-par season. V-Tech has only been a 17+ point underdog twice in the 2000’s and is 8-1 ATS under those circumstances in the Frank Beamer era.

    Georgia at Clemson (-2)

    Clemson is off of one of its best seasons in recent memory. The Tigers finished 11-2 with a bowl win over LSU. Their only two losses were at #4 Florida State and vs. #13 South Carolina. ACC Player of the Year Tajh Boyd returns (46 total touchdowns last year) to pilot this offense. Clemson has won nine straight home openers by 21 points per game. Its last loss was in 2003 against these Georgia Bulldogs. This will be just the third time in the last 19 years that Georgia opens the season on the road. They are just 2-2 in their last four openers, losing at #9 Oklahoma State in 2009 and against #5 Boise State in 2011 (neutral site).

    TCU (+5) vs. LSU

    TCU will get back QB Casey Pachall this season, who was suspended after four games in 2012. He has 35 touchdowns and 8 interceptions over the past two seasons as the Horned Frogs’ starting QB. TCU has won nine of its last 13 against ranked opponents, but finished just 2-3 against ranked foes last season. The Horned Frogs are also 13-4 SU against non-conference BCS foes since 2005. LSU has won 10 straight season openers. Six of those wins have come against BCS teams including #3 Oregon, #18 North Carolina, and #15 Arizona State.

    Comment


    • #3
      Player news and notes.
      ESPN's Joe Schad talked to one person who watched Oklahoma starting redshirt freshman Trevor Knight practice and concluded the QB's arm strength is underrated.

      CBS Sports' Jeremy Fowler spoke with one high-ranking Texas A&M official who said the school has "no plans" to sit redshirt sophomore QB Johnny Manziel during the school's season opener.

      Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher announced true freshman Jameis Winston will be the team's starting QB, as expected.

      Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz named redshirt sophomore Jake Rudock the school's starting QB.

      Comment


      • #4
        thanks for posting Game

        Comment


        • #5

          Comment


          • #6
            Dave Essler's Week One CFB Thoughts

            UMass-Wisconsin: OK, a line of 45 and a total of 53. I guess they figure that UMass won't score. Correlated play here, perhaps. With the Badgers have T-Tech the following week, this one has 48-3 written all over it. Badgers bring back way too many starters to think to much about taking those points, and UMass brings back nobody, basically. I thought about taking those points given that UMass at least PLAYED in Ann Arbor.

            Central Michigan-Michigan: Opened in places at 34.5 and down now to 31.5 or so. People probably suspect that Michigan will take it easy w/Notre Dame in week two, and I suspect that they will. However, CMU has some serious issues and after that Outback Bowl loss, I suspect the Wolverines are not going to screw around much here, and CMU may not score.

            Buffalo-Ohio State: Buffalo's defense is one of the better ones, if there is such a thing, in the MAC, and they bring most everyone back. Under rated team early, IMO. However, the Buckeyes have something to play for now. They played UGA pretty tough last year in week one, and clearly with the Miller hype there's points built into this line. With a total of 56 they're clearly expecting Buffalo to score.

            La Tech-NC State: With a big total like that you'd have to think NC State could cover this. Line hovered either side of 14, and I actually think the Wolfpack will not be as bad as some think, losing their QB. They've got transfers and experience, and a better than average (for the ACC) defense. La Tech brings back nobody from a team that could score on anyone but had no defense. NC State could cover this, and if I were them I'd worry more about Richmond (ATS) the following week.

            FIU-Maryland: What has happened to Coach Cristobals' team and bright future. I get that losing a 28 year old quarterback and TY Hilton has an effect, but to be 20 point dogs to Maryland is saying something. I know the Terps bring back a lot of people, but they just didn't have an overly viable offense last year. However, Edsell should have them that much better, and this may be a big number for a reason. With a total of 50, I do lean Terps with their renewed enthusiasm.

            Northern Illinois-Iowa: Nothern Illinois brings back far too many people and their QB not to be considered here. The very fact that they are only +3 on the road to an Big Ten team pretty much sums that up. Their only regular season loss last year was to these guys, at home, by one. Iowa brings back a lot of a decent defense, no offense, team. Low scoring game that Northern Illinois could win.

            Temple-Notre Dame: Irish by more than four touchdowns with a total of 50. So, are they saying Temple finds a way to score, or that the Irish name the score. With Michigan in week two, the Owls do bring back a lot of people from a team that wasn't as bad as their record indicated last year, and only two years removed from "very good". Not laying those points here.

            BYU-Virginia: One of the better, potentially, matchups this week. I know how good BYU can be. What I do worry about here is that it's going to be hot and humid here, and that's certainly not what Utah is like. Given that UVA is breaking in a new QB, I lean to the under in this one, and almost because of the weather, like BYU 1H and perhaps UVA 2H if the score is right.

            Alabama-V-Tech: You guys know all about these teams. I think.

            Troy-UAB: This is not your father's Troy team that could and did score at will, and they bring back nobody. If this were in UAB I'd have to think that UAB would be favored, so all tradition aside, I like UAB here. Most likely the last team with the ball wins, but 64 is a lot of points for teams with so few returning starters. Troy beat them 39-29 at UAB last year, and I think UAB returns the favor here.

            Cincinnati-Purdue: Line opens at about 7 and total disrespect for a Big Ten team since it's now -10. Honestly, I do not know how Purdue is going to score much this year, or any year since Drew Brees left. Bearcats bring back almost their entire offense, and a team that took Louisville to OT on the road (if memory is right) last year. I guess the only real question here is if the line has gone too far. Honestly, I think 49 points is probably too many, if for no other reason than Cincinnati plays at Illinois the following week, which I suppose could leave the back door open. Nah.

            Kentucky-WKU: Total disrespect for Kentucky here. Line opens at -7 or so on the road and now down to -4.5 or so. I know Kentucky is simply not an SEC team, and they DID beat Kentucky last season in Rupp Arena. OK, on the football field. WKU has the Vols in Knoxville in week two. Hilltoppers actually had a closed practice today. I didn't know Sun Belt teams actually did that. I suppose there's a reason this line is where it is, and the game is actually in Nashville, at LP Field. If Kentucky loses this game (they might) they should get kicked out of the SEC.

            Miami (OH)-Marshall: This is not Matthew McConaughey's Marshall team, and I just don't know how they're 20 point favorites to too many people. But, they do bring back most everyone from an offense that was first in the nation in passing yards. However, they DO lose Antavious Wilson and Aaron Dobson, they second and third leading receivers. And Miami (OH) couldn't stop anyone last year, and is breaking in a new QB, so perhaps the Herd do roll here.

            Mississippi State-Oklahoma State: Griff? I happen to think the Cowboys do win this game going away. It's in Houston, so there may be a few MSU fans that make the trip, but this game means much more to Gundy and the Cowboys. Beating an SEC team on national TV, soundly, is not something they'll disregard here.

            Comment


            • #7
              No. 6 South Carolina hosts UNC on Thursday
              by Brian Graham

              Kickoff: Thursday, 6:00 p.m. ET
              Line: South Carolina -10.5, Total: 56.5

              The college football season kicks off Thursday night when No. 6 South Carolina hosts North Carolina.

              These teams have met only once since 1991, when South Carolina won 21-15 as a 7-point road favorite in Chapel Hill in 2007. Both of these schools know how to put up points, with the Tar Heels finishing eighth in the FBS in scoring last season with 40.6 PPG, while the Gamecocks compiled 31.5 PPG despite playing in the toughest conference in the land. Although UNC has big shoes to fill with RB Giovani Bernard gone, QB Bryn Renner returns along with his top two receivers from 2012. Now healthy, South Carolina QB Connor Shaw should be able to march his team down the field against a Heels defense that struggled late last season. On the other hand, the Gamecocks defense is one of the nation’s best, led by projected No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick DE Jadeveon Clowney. North Carolina is 9-5 ATS (64%) in non-ACC action over the past three seasons, but South Carolina is 17-11 ATS (61%) at home since 2009, and 13-9 ATS (59%) when favored since 2011.

              UNC head coach Larry Fedora’s sped-up spread offense took off last year, but it's not clear what the running game will look like in 2013, especially with RB A.J. Blue (433 rush yds, 9 TD) questionable with a hamstring injury. With Blue hobbled, sophomore RB Romar Morris (386 rush yds, 5.6 YPC) will likely get the majority of carries early in the season. Underrated senior QB Bryn Renner (3,356 pass yds, 28 TD, 7 INT) will continually hone in on both WR Quinshad Davis (776 rec. yds, 5 TD) and TE Eric Ebron (625 rec. yds, 4 TD). Renner had great protection last year, as the UNC offensive line surrendered just 11 sacks, but with three lost starters on the O-Line and Clowney on the other side of the ball in hot pursuit, the senior might get a little jittery in the pocket. Carolina's 4-2-5 defense allowed 32.9 PPG in conference play last year, and said goodbye to its two best defenders in DT Sylvester Williams and LB Kevin Reddick. DE Kareem Martin (4 sacks) and S Tre Boston (86 tackles, 4 INT) are quality returning players, but this unit may struggle to stop quality passing offenses like South Carolina has. UNC gave up a hefty 247 passing YPG last year (83rd in FBS).

              Connor Shaw is coming off a solid year (1,956 pass yds, 17 TD, 7 INT; 435 rush yds, 3 TD) but he was slowed by a foot injury, but after offseason surgery, he appears ready to flourish as a senior. Shaw has a 17-3 career record as a starter, with the .850 winning percentage setting a school record. With top WR Ace Sanders gone, WR Bruce Ellington (600 rec. yds, 7 TD) should assume the No. 1 role. Ellington and WR Damiere Byrd have both been bothered by hamstring injuries, but are both expected to play on Thursday. The running game is in much better shape with the explosive sophomore RB trio of Mike Davis (275 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 2 TD), Brandon Wilds and Shon Carson running behind a veteran offensive line. Speaking of lines, DE Jadeveon Clowney finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting in 2012 after racking up 13 sacks and a school-record 23.5 Tackles For Loss. The Gamecocks wound up with 43 sacks (6th in FBS) while ranking 11th in total defense (316 YPG) last season. Although all the South Carolina starting linebackers are gone, the secondary is quite strong, featuring CBs Victor Hampton (40 tackles, 6 PD) and Jimmy Legree (44 tackles, 3 INT, 6 PD).

              Comment


              • #8
                Vandy Seeks 4th Straight Win over Ole Miss Thursday
                by Brian Graham

                Kickoff: Thursday, 9:15 p.m. ET
                Line: Ole Miss -3, Total: 53.5

                The powerful SEC begins its 2013 season on Thursday night when Ole Miss visits Vanderbilt.

                Although the Rebels have won 13 of the past 20 meetings in this series, the Commodores have won three straight (SU & ATS) in this matchup. Last November, a last-minute TD pass gave Vandy a 27-26 road victory in a very pass-heavy game for both teams. The last time theses schools met in Nashville in 2011, Vanderbilt put a 30-7 whooping on Ole Miss. However, Hugh Freeze led the Rebels to a five-game turnaround in his first season as head coach, and his team returns most of its offensive skill-position production, plus 10 starters from a stout defense. The Commodores also have a stingy defense and enter 2013 on a seven-game win streak, but they’re replacing their best two offensive players, QB Jordan Rogers and RB Zac Stacy. Both of these schools have some favorable trends going for them on Thursday. Ole Miss went 5-1 ATS (83%) on the road, 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference play and 5-1 ATS (83%) as a favorite last year. But in the past two seasons, Vanderbilt is 11-2 ATS (85%) at home, 10-6 ATS (63%) in SEC action and 8-5 ATS (62%) when getting points.

                Hugh Freeze’s fast-paced spread offense improved from 281 YPG in 2011 (116th in FBS) to 424 YPG last year (46th in FBS), which helped transform a 2-10 team into a 7-6 club. QB Bo Wallace (2,994 pass yds, 22 TD 17 INT; 390 rush yds, 8 TD) missed the spring due to shoulder surgery, but is 100 percent healed. The junior lit up Vandy's secondary for 403 yards on 31-of-49 completions (8.2 yards per attempt), 1 TD and 0 INT in last year's loss. Wallace's top-three pass catchers all return with WRs Donte Moncrief (979 rec. yds, 10 TD), Vince Sanders (504 rec. yds, 4 TD) and Ja-Mes Logan (490 rec. yds), but Sanders broke his collarbone in practice in early August and will be out for six weeks. Both Logan (8 rec, 160 yds) and Moncrief (8 rec, 74 yds) had big performances against the Commodores last year though, catching eight passes apiece for a combined 234 yards. The Rebels are not one-dimensional though with top RB Jeff Scott (846 rush yds, 6 TD), but Vanderbilt's defense held him to a paltry 47 yards on 24 carries in last year's meeting. The Rebels’ tremendous defensive line (103 TFL, T-4th in FBS; 38 sacks, T-11th in FBS) will remain disruptive with the nation’s top recruit in DE Robert Nkemdiche. His brother, LB Denzel Nkemdiche (82 tackles, 3 sacks, 3 INT, 4 FF), was the star of last year’s 4-2-5 set, along with LB Mike Marry (78 tackles) and CB Charles Sawyer (63 tackles, 8 PD). Although the Rebels allowed 247 passing YPG (82nd in FBS), they did rack up 2.2 turnovers per game (T-23rd in nation).

                Vanderbilt is eager to start the season on the field after a summer filled with distractions stemming from four former football players being accused of a raping an unconscious woman in a campus dormitory. This legal mess includes No. 2 WR Chris Boyd (774 rec. yds, 5 TD), who was charged as an accessory after the fact and is suspended from the team indefinitely. Boyd caught the game-winning TD pass with 52 seconds left to beat the Rebels last year. On the field, the Commodores will turn to new QB Austyn Carta-Samuels who amassed 4,413 total yards and 25 TD in two years at Wyoming. He'll look frequently to superstar WR Jordan Matthews (1,323 rec. yds, 8 TD) who caught nine passes for 153 yards and a 52-yard touchdown in last year's victory over Ole Miss. With top Zac Stacy gone, RBs Wesley Tate (376 rush yds, 8 TD) and Brian Kimbrow (413 rush yds, 3 TD) will likely share the workload with a quality offensive line to run behind. Tate totaled 59 yards and a touchdown in the 2012 win in Oxford. This excellent Vanderbilt defense (18.7 PPG, 15th in FBS) is propelled by DEs Kyle Woestmann (5 sacks, 2 FF), Caleb Azubike (4 sacks) and Walker May (3 sacks, 7 QBH), but the most valuable player is LB Chase Garnham (84 tackles, 6.5 sacks). CB Andre Hal (48 tackles, 14 PD, 2 INT) stabilizes the stingy pass defense that finished 14th in the nation with 192 passing YPG allowed.

                Comment


                • #9
                  NCAAF Week 1

                  South Carolina is 22-15-1 as a home favorite under Spurrier, 9-5-1 last two years; they’re 11-7-1 vs spread in last 19 non-SEC games. Gamecocks have two quality QBs, one a thrower, one a better runner- they play conference rival Georgia next, likely will hold some tactics back for that bigger game. Tar Heels have a quality senior QB but lost three starters on OL; they’re 15-9 vs spread in last 24 non-ACC games, but are 2-4-1 in last seven games as an underdog.

                  Minnesota (-8) won 30-27 at UNLV LY, outgaining Rebels 478-275; Gophers are 1-4 vs spread in last five tries as double digit favorites with two SU losses. UNLV is 4-15 in last 19 tries as a road dog; they finally have good QB in soph Sherry who had rough debut vs Gophers LY (16-35/116). Minnesota has all five starters back on OL but have soph QB with only seven starts- they’re 7-11 in last 18 games as a home favorite.

                  Tulsa-Bowling Green both have senior QB’s, but Falcons’ QB has 35 career starts, Tulsa’s only 18; Hurricane won last meeting 33-20 (-17) in 2010, after waxing Falcons 63-7 in a bowl three years before that. Tulsa covered seven of last nine as a road dog; they’re 20-15 in last 35 non-league games. BG is 6-5 as a home favorite under Clawson; they’re 9-9 in last 18 non-MAC tilts and have four starters back on OL (Tulsa has two).

                  Central Florida (-24) waxed Akron 56-14 LY; teams split six games in series, with four of six decided by 14 or less points. UCF is 21-12-1 as a home favorite since '05; they've got their QB back with three starters on OL, while Zips have new QB this year in Bowden's second year. Since 2004, Akron is 15-18-1 as road underdogs. UCF covered 13 of its last 21 non-conference games.

                  Utah State (+7) beat Utah 27-20 LY, its first win in last 13 series games, but Anderson is HC at Wisconsin now; Aggies have four senior starters on OL and prolific junior QB Keeton (21 starts) back- they've lost their last six visits here, but covered four of last five-- they're 14-2 vs spread in last 16 games as road dog. Utah is 17-14-2 as home favorite since '06; since '08, they're 11-9-1 in non-league games. Utes have soph QB and three new starters on OL. State ia 15-5 vs spread out of conference.

                  Underdogs are 20-10 vs spread in Ole Miss' last 30 road games; over the last decade, Rebels are just 4-12 vs spread as road favorites. Vanderbilt won four of last five games with Ole Miss; road teams won four of the five games; teams split last two meetings here. Both teams have veteran OLs and their QB back. Vandy is 4-1 as home dog under Franklin, after being 8-18 from '04-'10. Commodores are 11-2 vs spread at home under Franklin. Underdogs covered four of last five series games.

                  Fresno State was 6-0 as home favorite LY, after being 3-18-1 in that role before DeRuyter got to town ('06-'11); Bulldogs have senior QB with 26 starts, three starters back on OL. Rutgers is 15-7 in last 22 tries as road dog but is just 11-17 in last 28 non-league games. Knights have QB with 18 starts and veteran OL. Fresno is 11-9 vs spread in last 20 non-league games. Fresno (+3.5) won 24-7 at Rutgers in '08, only previous meeting.

                  USC hasn't named starting QB, which shouldn't matter here, but they're inexperienced under center, and have Pac-12 opener vs Washington State next. Trojans are thin because of probation, but have four starters back on OL- they're 7-17 in last 24 tries as road favorite after being 0-5 LY-- they're 2-9 vs spread in non-league games under Kiffin. Hawai'i fired its new OC during summer, a red flag, especially with an inexperienced QB; they covered once in last five tries as home dog. USC won last five series meetings by average score of 56-21.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Beyond the BCS

                    Capping College Football's Small Conferences

                    Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

                    Team to Watch: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

                    Week 1 odds: +4.5 vs. Kentucky

                    An intriguing matchup not only pits instate competitors against each other but also head coaches with new jobs: Western Kentucky’s Bobby Petrino vs. Kentucky’s Mark Stoops. Western Kentucky went to a bowl game for the first time last year and Willie Taggart promptly bolted for South Florida.

                    Enter Petrino, who will implement his pass-happy offense under a new starting quarterback Brandon Doughty. The Hilltoppers’ feature running back, though, is the same. Senior Antonio Andrews rushed 304 times for 1,684 yards and 11 touchdowns last season.

                    Western Kentucky, which beat host Kentucky 32-31 in overtime last September, is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against the SEC and 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference dates. Petrino is 8-0 in season openers as a college head coach.

                    Team to Beware: Bowling Green Falcons

                    Week 1 odds: -3.5 vs. Tulsa

                    Bowling Green returns 17 starters from a 2012 squad that compiled a respectable 8-5. Some of the personnel losses, however, are key. Defensive tackle Chris Jones (12.5 sacks) and linebacker Dwayne Woods graduated. On the other side of the ball, running back Anthon Samuel transferred to Florida International and offensive lineman Fahn Cooper also left in unexpected fashion.

                    Tulsa is a team that could capitalize on the absences of Jones and Woods in the middle of the Falcons’ defense. The Golden Hurricane finished ninth in the nation with 245.7 rushing yards per game last season while averaging 34.7 points per contest. Tulsa was 5-1 ATS in its last six games of 2012. Bowling Green, meanwhile, is 2-5 in its last seven contests out of conference.

                    Total Team: Troy Trojans

                    Week 1 odds: 63 vs. UAB

                    The over was 4-0 in Troy’s last four home games of 2012 and 6-1 in the team’s last seven contests overall. Looking back long term, the Trojans have gone over the total 21 times in their last 28 non-conference games. They host UAB Saturday and it looks like another non-conference date that should go over the total of 63.

                    Corey Robinson, already the most accomplished quarterback in Troy history with at 3,000 passing yards in each of his first three seasons, is back for his senior campaign. On the other side of the ball, Troy allowed 30.5 points and 443.6 yards per game last year. Its defensive unit returns only four starters, which may be a good thing in the long run, but not for Week 1 of the season. The Trojans beat the Blazers 39-29 in 2012 and another shootout can be expected.

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                    • #11
                      NCAAF Opening Line Report: Manziel Worth at Least 10 Points
                      By Jason Logan

                      Calling this an “Opening Line Report” is a bit misleading in Week 1 of the college football schedule. Many of these spreads have been taking action for some time now.

                      But, for the sake of argument and for those who haven’t looked at a NCAAF spread since the BCS title game, we break down a few of the “opening lines” for the kickoff to the college season and get the low down on the odds from Las Vegas linesmaker Peter Korner.

                      Week 1 is the toughest set of odds to cook up, according to Korner, due to the fact oddsmakers have very little to go on for the 2013 season. Spreads and totals are based more on last year’s success, returning starters and coaches’ game plans.

                      “We really have no idea,” Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “We put out our numbers, everyone else puts out theirs and we go from there. Week 1 and 2 are the toughest because we don’t have much to go on to gauge these teams.”

                      Rice Owls at Texas A&M Aggies (-27, N/A)

                      As of this writing, I imagine Johnny Manziel in a musty interrogation room with a searing light in his face, getting grilled by the NCAA fuzz. Oddsmakers - at least the ones hanging lines on this Week 1 opener - expect the Heisman winner to be on the field Saturday.

                      Korner sent out Texas A&M at -28 and most books followed suit with similar numbers. The Aggies are acting like Manziel will be taking snaps but if for some reason Autograph Gate turns “Johnny Football” into “Johnny Sideline”, Korner predicts this spread could swing as many as 10 points in the other direction.

                      “I expect him to be penalized in some way,” he says. “If he is out, I think he’s worth at least 10 points. He’s the team’s leading passer and rusher. That’s huge. It’s a big drop off and we’ve never really seen the guys in behind him. Texas A&M would still be a big favorite, though.”

                      USC Trojans at Hawaii Warriors (+21.5, 53.5)

                      Opening the season in Hawaii is more an extension of summer vacation than Week 1 of the schedule. The Trojans, for the first time in a long time, aren’t among the BCS favorites and some people may be selling Southern Cal short.

                      Korner sent out a suggested line of USC -23 for this Thursday night “Degenerate Special” (11 p.m. ET kickoff) and books trimmed that spread as low as -21.5. The Trojans will be without RB Silas Redd, who won’t make the trip due to a bum knee, but Korner thinks there is plenty of firepower on the USC depth chart.

                      “They should win big with their bench on the field,” Korner says of Southern Cal. “There will be plenty of scoring. We had the total much higher at 58.”

                      Southern Cal and Hawaii have played four times since 2003, topping the number in the first three meetings before staying under the 62-point total with a 49-10 USC win last season.

                      Georgia Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers (+2, 72)

                      This SEC-versus-ACC showdown is the crown jewel of the Saturday slate, pitting the No. 5 Bulldogs against the No. 8 Tigers.

                      Korner and his stable of oddsmakers submitted spreads of either Clemson -1 or Pick’em, eventually sending out the home side as a slight fave. The betting public is buying up the SEC representative, moving this spread to UGA -2.

                      “The spread isn’t going to matter in this game,” says Korner. “Whether it’s Clemson -1 or Georgia, I don’t think it will come into play. Whoever wins will cover. Georgia is the better team and would be a favorite on a neutral field but I’m not going to make them the favorite just because they’re from the SEC. 'SEC Bias', I don’t know what that means.”

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                      • #12
                        NCAAF Week 1

                        Michigan State won its last four games (3-1 vs spread) with Western Michigan, with three of four wins by 24+ points; last meeting was in 2010. Spartans were 0-6 as home favorites LY, are 20-30-1 in that role over last decade- they do have senior QB (13 starts) and four starters back on OL. Broncos are 8-13-1 as road dogs since ’08, 9-13-1 out of conference since ’07; they lost four starters on OL and have senior QB who has only eight career starts.

                        This will be Florida Atlantic’s Super Bowl, getting to play Miami week before ‘canes play Florida; teams haven’t met. Owls were 8-2 as dogs LY, after being 13-28-2 as road dogs from ’05-’11. Its certainly a road game but not a road trip for FAU, which has a new QB and three new starters on OL. Miami has senior QB (17 starts) and all five starters back on OL, so they’re looking for big things this year. ‘canes 5-5 as home favorites under Golden, 20-34 if you go back to ’03- they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 non-league games.

                        Texas Tech won last seven games with SMU, with six wins by 14+ points, but teams haven’t met since ’07; first game as Tech coach for former NFL QB Kingsbury, whose Red Raiders are 11-3-1 as road favorites since ’07, 8-4 out of conference since ’10. Mustangs have senior (25 starts) QB but three new starters on OL; they’ve covered six of last seven tries as home dog, with home side covering 12 times in last 16 games where SMU was an underdog. SMU is 11-8 in last 19 non-league games. Tech has new coach, new QB, three new starters on OL; road opener has to be at least a little dicey.

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                        • #13
                          What Bettors Need to Know

                          North Carolina Tar Heels at South Carolina Gamecocks (-12.5, 57.5)

                          South Carolina has never received the amount of preseason publicity that's flooded its way this summer, putting the No.7 Gamecocks in the national conversation heading into their season opener Thursday against visiting North Carolina. South Carolina is at an all-time high in the preseason polls thanks to one of the country's premier players in junior Jadeveon Clowney, who was voted the nation’s top defensive end last season and finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy balloting. South Carolina also returns starting quarterback Connor Shaw, who has never lost at home as a starter for the Gamecocks.

                          North Carolina also returns a talented quarterback in senior Bryn Renner, who has thrown for more than 3,000 yards each of the last two seasons. Renner also welcomes back his No. 1 target in wide receiver Quinshad Davis, a South Carolina native who set freshman school records last season for receptions (61) and receiving yardage (776). Protecting Renner’s blind side will be 6-7, 305-pound left tackle James Hurst, while redshirt freshman Jon Heck won the starting job at right tackle. Both figure to be tested all night against Clowney, who recorded 13 sacks last season.

                          Key betting stat: Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

                          UNLV Runnin' Rebels at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-14, 51)

                          Minnesota, coming off its first bowl appearance since 2009, hosts UNLV on Thursday in the season opener for both teams. The Gophers doubled their win total from three to six last season, including a 30-27, triple-overtime win at UNLV in their 2012 opener. This matchup should have a similar feel as the teams combine to return 34 of their 44 starters from last season.

                          Highlighting the Gophers’ 16 returning starters is defensive tackle Ra’Shede Hageman, who had a breakout season as a junior in 2012. However, Hageman and the Minnesota defense will have their hands full with UNLV’s rushing attack, especially senior running back Tim Cornett. The Rebels enter this season with new coordinators on offense and defense, including Tim Hauck – the younger brother of coach Bobby Hauck – running the defense.

                          Key betting stat: Under is 8-2 in Golden Gophers' last 10 home games.

                          Utah State Aggies at Utah Utes (-2.5, 51)

                          Utah will look for its 13th win in its last 14 games against visiting Utah State as the longtime in-state rivalry continues on Thursday. The Battle of the Brothers is the 12th-longest standing rivalry in college football and heads toward its 111th installment. The Utes are 77-29-4 all-time against the Aggies and had won 12 straight before Utah State won 27-20 in overtime last season.

                          Utah sophomore quarterback Travis Wilson will look to turn the program around this season after starting seven games last season and throwing for seven touchdowns and 1,311 yards. The Aggies, led by junior signal caller Chuckie Keeton, are trying to build off one of the best seasons in school history.

                          Key betting stat: Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

                          Mississippi Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores (+3.5, 53)

                          Vanderbilt looks to build on the most successful two-year stretch in school history when it hosts Ole Miss on Thursday in the season opener for both teams. Senior Austyn Carta-Samuels takes over at quarterback for the Commodores, who were picked to finish fourth in the SEC East preseason media poll after a tumultuous offseason. Expectations are also high at Ole Miss, which aims to end a nine-game losing streak in SEC openers.

                          The Rebels signed one of the top recruiting classes in the country last spring, and several freshmen figure to play in the opener, including highly touted defensive end Robert Nkemdiche. The game features two of the top wide receivers in the conference in Vanderbilt senior Jordan Matthews and Ole Miss junior Donte Moncrief, who caught 10 touchdown passes last season. Matthews had a season-high 153 receiving yards against the Rebels last year, when Vanderbilt won its third straight game in the series.

                          Key betting stat: Rebels are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

                          Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Fresno State Bulldogs (-10.5, 54.5)

                          Thursday’s season opener against Rutgers can’t come soon enough for Fresno State, which has been eager to get back on the field since its embarrassing loss to SMU in the Hawaii Bowl. Rutgers is looking to build on coach Kyle Flood’s successful first year, when the Scarlet Knights claimed a share of the Big East title. The teams are meeting for the second time ever, with Fresno State winning 24-7 in Rutgers nearly five years ago to the day.

                          The Bulldogs feature the Mountain West preseason offensive and defensive players of the year in quarterback Derek Carr and safety Derron Smith, and they were a near-unanimous pick to win the West Division of the Mountain West in the preseason media poll. Expectations are also high at Rutgers, which is playing one year in the new American Athletic Conference before joining the Big Ten next season. The Scarlett Knights will be tested at Bulldog Stadium, where Fresno State went 6-0 last season and outscored opponents by a total of 190 points.

                          Key betting stat: Bulldogs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

                          USC Trojans at Hawaii Warriors (+23, 53.5)

                          The Matt Barkley era is over at Southern California and his replacement as quarterback is still in flux as the No. 24 Trojans visit Hawaii in Thursday’s season-opening contest. Coach Lane Kiffin said that sophomores Max Wittek and Cody Kessler will share the duties against the Warriors and that he won’t name a starter until after the squad arrives in Honolulu. Former USC offensive coordinator Norm Chow is head coach of Hawaii and is also running the offense.

                          The Warriors also feature a new quarterback as Ohio State transfer Taylor Graham – son of former NFL signal caller Kent Graham – beat out incumbent Sean Schroeder (11 touchdowns, 12 interceptions in 2012) for the starting job and is being counted on to rev up an attack that ranked 118th out of 120 FBS teams in total offense (297.4 yards) and scored only 21.2 points per game last season. While the Trojans are sorting out the quarterbacking situation, there are no issues with junior Marqise Lee, who finished fourth in Heisman Trophy voting and won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s best receiver after setting a school record with 118 receptions. USC senior running back Silas Redd (905 rushing yards, nine TDs in 2012) will miss the contest after undergoing knee surgery five months ago to repair a meniscus tear.

                          Key betting stat: Trojans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.

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                          • #14
                            Inside The Stats: New Coaches Struggle ATS in Opener
                            by Marc Lawrence

                            With the NFL preseason headed toward the finish line, and the 2013 college football season about to engage, let’s take a quick spin around both worlds.

                            Coaches who try

                            One of the key ingredients in successfully handicapping the NFL preseason is identifying coaches who put an emphasis on winning above all else.

                            Three such coaches entered the 2013 exhibition slate with sterling preseason records, namely Baltimore’s John Harbaugh (13-7 SU and 11-9 ATS), Detroit’s Jim Schwartz (12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS) and Seattle’s Pete Carroll (17-12 SU and 19-9-1 ATS).

                            Collectively the triumvirate has not let their backers down this preseason, compiling a sterling 7-2 SU/ATS mark.

                            ...And those who don’t

                            On the other side of the street are coaches that could care less about the preseason scoreboard.

                            Their purpose is to utilize the exhibition season to evaluate talent and put the team in the best position it can entering the regular campaign.

                            Three coaches fit this bill entering the 2013 preseason, including Atlanta’s Mike Smith (7-13 SU and 8-10-2 ATS), Miami’s Joe Philbin (0-4 SUATS) and Minnesota’s Leslie Frazier (3-5 SUATS).

                            Holding true to their colors, this tame trio has combined to go 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS this preseason.

                            New kids on the block

                            The 2013 college football season welcomes no less than 31 head coaches debuting with new teams this season.

                            A disturbing stat is the fact that these newbie’s tend to struggle in the maiden voyages, going 112-145-8 combined in lined openers since 1990.

                            Those who inherit a bad team (four or fewer wins last season) struggle the worst, going 45-75-6 ATS.

                            Put these new coach/bad teams up against a quality foe (one who won six or more games last season) and they dip even further, going 6-62 SU and 20-42-3 ATS.

                            According to our research, a long day could be in the offing for Brett Bielema (Arkansas), Sonny Dykes (California), Mark Stoops (Kentucky), Doug Martin (New Mexico State), Matt Ruhle (Temple) and P. J. Fleck (Western Michigan).

                            Elevator up, elevator down

                            With college football totals becoming more popular these days, here’s a snapshot of the best and worst teams last season…

                            • Best OVER team: Louisiana Tech (11-1 O/U)

                            • Best UNDER team: Bowling Green (2-10 O/U)

                            • Most combined PPG offense + defense: Louisiana Tech (90 PPG)

                            • Least combined PPG offense + defense): Rutgers (35.7 PPG)

                            • Highest average O/U line: Baylor (74.8)

                            • Lowest average O/U line: Connecticut (43.6)

                            • Highest average O/U margin: Louisiana Tech (+20.7)

                            • Lowest average O/U margin: Bowling Green (-10.4)

                            Stat of the Week

                            The Seattle Seahawks are 20-4 SU and 22-2 ATS versus AFC opponents during the preseason since 2004.

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                            • #15
                              College Football Gambling Preview: LSU Tigers vs. TCU Horned Frogs
                              By Marty Otto
                              SportsMemo.com

                              LSU vs. TCU
                              Marty Otto's Recommendation: LSU
                              Saturday, 6 pm PT - ESPN (at Cowboys Stadium)
                              CRIS Opener: LSU -3 O/U 50.5
                              CRIS Current: LSU -4 O/U 50

                              This is one of the marquee games of college football’s opening week and it’s being played on a monster stage. It’s Saturday night, on ESPN primetime, at massive Cowboys Stadium. The Tigers currently find themselves as 4-point favorites and I wouldn’t expect them to go off at anything less than that number barring a major suspension or injury.

                              Coaching

                              Les Miles enters his ninth season as head coach at LSU. His teams have managed to win at least 10 games in each of the last three years and in six of his previous eight seasons. John Chavis remains as the defensive coordinator. Cam Cameron is the new offensive coordinator after a long stint in the NFL.

                              TCU head coach Gary Patterson has been at the helm for 13 years in Fort Worth. Known as a giant killer while as a member of the Mountain West, Patterson has guided TCU through its rough transition to major conference competition as the Horned Frogs joined the Big XII last year.

                              LSU Offense vs. TCU Defense

                              Gary Patterson’s teams have long been lauded as defensive dominators. But those days could well be in the past now that they’ve stepped up in class to the Big XII. We saw a drop off last year as the Frogs allowed over 22 points per game after averaging just 14.7 ppg the previous six years. Though this unit returns almost all of their starters from a year ago they will be without defensive end DeVonte Fields due to suspension. He accounted for 10 sacks and another 8.5 tackles for loss last year so it is a significant absence.

                              LSU’s projected offensive line is beefy with some 320-350 pound guys pushing the pile. This is a team that had three running backs that averaged over 5.5 yards per carry (Jeremy Hill, Kenny Hilliard, and Alfred Blue) and all three return. Hill is the presumptive starter but some legal issues may keep him from playing in this game. I still wouldn’t worry about their production with Hilliard and Blue more than capable. Of course all eyes will be on quarterback Zach Mettenberger; immensely talented but inconsistent. I would expect with Cameron’s tutelage that Mettenberger could have a breakout season. His top two receivers are back and if he can play like he showed he could against Alabama last season the Tigers are going to be a very good offensive team.

                              LSU Defense vs. TCU Offense

                              There is a bit of gamesmanship going on in the TCU camp right now regarding who will start at quarterback. Casey Pachall was the starter at the beginning of last season and performed well. But a drunk driving charge and a trip to rehab ended his season after just four weeks. Trevone Boykin took over signal calling duties in his absence and the offense struggled. It’s widely expected that Pachall will return as the starter but Patterson will not confirm publicly who will get the nod. Pachall and Boykin are so different as players that LSU is in theory forced to game plan for both. In any event I don’t believe this will be a quick strike offense like they’ve had in previous years regardless of who starts. And I don’t think they’ll be having much success in the run game against this LSU defense.

                              Obviously LSU has to reload the stop unit after eight players were drafted but I don’t expect a noticeable drop off. Les Miles has recruited well and they have plenty of highly touted guys to fill the gaps. I think it’s more of the size and speed advantages they’ll undoubtedly have here that will make a difference against a rather pedestrian TCU offense.

                              Final Take

                              There was a time in the not so distant past that TCU vs. a power conference school would pique my interest. But they will no longer sneak up on the opposition and when it’s an elite SEC team… well, forget about it! TCU got run out of the building by Oklahoma last year and I suspect we’ll see LSU punch them in the mouth while showing dominance in the trenches. LSU is 43-3 SU the past 10 years in non-conference games and they’ve excelled in the role of road favorite going 65% ATS since 2002. I think the Tigers notch a comfortable victory in Dallas despite TCU having the local support.

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