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  • NFL Pre-season Betting Info

    Four NFL coaches who need to win this preseason

    Handicapping NFL coaches has become a popular practice for preseason bettors, picking out guys like Mike Shanahan (44-34-2 ATS in the preseason) and Andy Reid (25-28-3 ATS), who are notorious for their interest – or lack thereof – during the summer schedule.

    However, Shanahan finished the preseason 2-2 against the spread last summer – improving to 7-5 ATS during the preseason in his tenure with the Redskins – and Reid led the Philadelphia Eagles to a 3-1 ATS mark and is actually 6-2 ATS the past two preseasons.

    While weighing a head coach’s preseason success is fine, perhaps a more valuable way to look at NFL coaches is just how bad they need to win in 2013 – preseason or not. Putting together a winning record in the warm-ups can cool a coach’s seat and appease a nervous fanbase, easing the pressure heading into Week 1.

    Here are four coaches who need to win during the preseason:

    Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions

    Schwartz just so happens to be one of the better preseason plays, posting a 12-4 SU and 11-4 ATS mark since 2009, so turning up the intensity during the exhibition slate shouldn’t be too much of a stretch. Schwartz is under the microscope in the Motor City after Detroit suffered a serious regression in 2012, going 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS, after posting 10 wins in 2011. A poor start – preseason or regular season – could spark the fire under Schwartz’s seat.

    Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys

    Jerry Jones has done just about everything but ax his head coach, taking the offensive playbook from Garrett and handing it to new coordinator Bill Callahan. Dallas hasn’t been a great preseason bet in recent years, boasting a 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS record during Garrett’s time as head coach. Cowboys fans shouldn’t expect wins this preseason. Dallas is working in two new coordinators, switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3 Cover 2 and has even introduced a Pistol look to the offense.

    Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons

    Atlanta should be more concerned about winning games at the end of the year – after numerous postseason flops – but the Falcons’ fan base is pissed after last season and has had a bad taste in its mouth since blowing a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship. Smith can provide a bit of mouthwash with a solid preseason. Atlanta has been horrid in tuneup tilts the past two years, with a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS count, while Smith is 7-13 SU and 8-10-2 ATS during his preseason career.

    Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

    Belichick is in no danger of being fired and spends about as much time worrying about the preseason scoreboard as he does picking out his sideline outfit every Sunday. However, after the summer the Patriots had – losing Welker and Woodhead, Gronkowski’s surgeries, Hernandez’s murder arrest – New England football fans need something to cheer for. Belichick was 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS last summer and boasts an 8-12 SU and 6-13-1 ATS record over the past five preseasons.

  • #2
    Four most costly NFL preseason bets since 1995

    NFL preseason betting is like the canker sore inside your lip. The more it hurts, the more you want to just jab your tongue in there.

    Betting on the NFL’s warm-up schedule is tempting after a long offseason. So if you are succumbing to that little devil on your shoulder, beware these four teams which have been especially costly over the past 17 NFL preseason slates.

    Kansas City Chiefs (22-46 SU, 19-46-3 ATS)

    Betting on the Chiefs, no matter the season, has been a poor practice in recent years. Kansas City went 1-3 SU and ATS in the preseason last summer and is now under the command of new head coach Andy Reid, who is notorious for his disdain for the exhibition games. However, Reid has gone against the grain in recent years, posting a 6-2 SU and ATS preseason mark in his final two seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Oakland Raiders (32-35 SU, 28-37-2 ATS)

    Dennis Allen enters his second season at the helm in Oakland, and like most Raiders coaches, his office chair resembles Hades’ La-Z-Boy. Oakland went just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS last summer and Allen could be under pressure to win right off the bat. The Raiders are still ironing out their starting QB, so Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Tyler Wilson and even rookie Matt McGloin are going all out.

    Detroit Lions (34-34 SU, 28-37-3 ATS)

    Jim Schwartz is another head coach under pressure to perform this preseason. He’s made Detroit one of the darlings of the warm-up sked, going 12-4 SU and 11-4 ATS since 2009. So the Lions could continue to improve on their preseason history. Detroit, which went 2-2 SU and ATS in the 2012 preseason, faces the Jets, Browns, Patriots and Bills this August. Those teams went a combined 3-13 ATS last preseason.

    Carolina Panthers (30-38 SU, 28-37-3 ATS)

    Ron Rivera’s job in Carolina was likely saved by the Panthers’ 5-1 SU and ATS finish to the 2012 season. Fans of preseason betting don’t want to see Rivera go after he posted a 6-2 ATS mark in his first two years on the job. The Panthers are hoping to pick up where they left off last winter but need to work in new offensive coordinator Mike Shula this summer. And there a numerous starting jobs still up for grabs.

    Comment


    • #3
      Three things NFL bettors should watch during training camps
      By JASON LOGAN

      Football bettors got their first earful of NFL training camp noise this weekend. While the sports networks and talk radio waves are jammed packed with tidbits from camp, most of this information can be discarded, according to our Covers Experts.

      But, there are some things pro handicappers keep close tabs on during NFL training. We asked our wiseguys what has their attention this summer:

      Injuries

      The injury bug bit hard in the first few days of training camp. The Denver Broncos lost starting center Dan Koppen for the season to a torn ACL and Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert was carted off the field after spraining his ankle.

      The Seattle Seahawks could be without new WR Percy Harvin for a while after he suffered a slight tear in his labrum and the Philadelphia Eagles won’t have WR Jeremy Maclin for 2013 after he tore his ACL.

      “I just watch for injuries especially those on the offensive line,” says a capper for Doc’s Sports. “Having a banged-up line creates major issues for the quarterback and running back and it may take a few weeks for the backups to get up to par. If a team suffered a key offensive line injury it may be worth a look fading that team the first couple of weeks.”

      NFC East bettors will also be keeping a watch on Robert Griffin III’s wonky knee and if the Washington Redskins’ dynamic QB will be ready to go – or even at 100 percent – come the season opener versus Philadelphia on Monday Night Football.

      New coaches, new schemes

      Eight teams have a new head coach, 13 have a new offensive coordinator and a dozen squads welcome a new defensive coordinator. Paying attention to how these teams adapt to their new coaches can pay off when Week 1 rolls around.

      “When new OCs and DCs are brought in, it's usually because of either a new head coaching change or a change made out of necessity,” says pro capper Marc Lawrence. “They often times bring new playbooks, and as a result there is a new learning curve on each side of the ball.”

      The most notable coaching swap was the Eagles’ hire of former Oregon skipper Chip Kelly, who brings his high-octane offense to the pros. Other teams and new hires under the microscope are the Cleveland Browns and new OC Norv Turner and Monte Kiffin calling the defensive shots in Dallas.

      “This season there are a lot of interesting story lines involving new schemes for teams,” says Doc’s Sports. “Dallas is switching back to a 4-3 defense after nearly a decade in the 3-4. And not just any 4-3, but a Cover-2 scheme, which has seemingly fallen out of favor in recent seasons.”

      Bettors should also make note of current NFL coaches on the hot seat and their demeanor heading into training camp. Covers Expert Bruce Marshall points the finger at Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz, who is coming off a disappointing 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS. Marshall says the fear of losing their job can motivate these coaches to pull out all the stops in the early season, and even press for victories in the preseason.

      Quarterback situations

      There are plenty of QB controversies brewing after the first weekend of training camp.

      Of course, the New York Jets’ highly-publicized battle between Mark Sanchez and rookie Geno Smith has hogged the headlines this summer. But Buffalo, Philadelphia, Oakland and Jacksonville also have some tough calls to make under center.

      “These are the teams where there's no true starter named yet,” says Covers Expert Will Rogers. “Whoever emerges will obviously have a significant impact on that team's respective season.”

      Some cappers tab specific No. 1 quarterbacks and track their progress through training camp. Covers Experts’ Will Rogers has eyes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman and how hot his coaching staff is for him at the end of the summer.

      “Rumor has it that the current coaching staff isn't in love with him, and why should they be given the way he finished last season?,” says Rogers. “They drafted Mike Glennon out of NC State as well, making matters more dicey.”

      Comment


      • #4
        NFL preseason betting: Teams with the most QB depth
        By JASON LOGAN

        Handicapping preseason NFL action is a lot like picking winners on the baseball diamond. So much of your wager is riding on one position. In MLB, it’s the starting pitcher. In the NFL preseason, it’s the quarterback – or should we say quarterbacks.

        Finding teams with starting experience on the depth chart is key to cashing in during the preseason. Starting QBs may only see a handful of tosses through the first two tune-up games, leaving passing duties to the second, third and sometimes fourth-string pivot.

        Here are four teams who hold their preseason betting value long after the No. 1 QB takes off his helmet:

        Philadelphia Eagles

        QBs: Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, Dennis Dixon

        New head coach Chip Kelly has been working out his platoon of passers this summer, trying to find which QB best suits his up-tempo offense. Vick and Foles split time as the No. 1 last year and there is a movement lobbying for Barkley to take over the offense. Dixon could actually slide into the No. 3 spot if the Eagles drop Vick or Foles following camp.

        Cincinnati Bengals

        QBs: Andy Dalton, Josh Johnson, John Skelton, Zac Robinson

        Dalton is maturing into one of the AFC’s best passers and has some experience behind him on the depth chart. Johnson has starts under his belt, going back to his days with Tampa Bay, and Skelton started 17 games in three years with Arizona. Robinson is currently out of action due to injury, so the preseason load could be spread amongst the top three QBs on the depth chart.

        Seattle Seahawks

        QBs: Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn, Tarvaris Jackson

        Wilson’s sublime rookie campaign has the Seahawks looking to air it out a little more in 2013. However, Seattle may be without offseason addition WR Percy Harvin for the year and will use the preseason to fill that void in the WR corps. Quinn had 12 starts during this tenure in Cleveland and was the No. 1 for eight games in Kansas City last year. Jackson has 34 career starts, including 14 with Seattle in 2011.

        Houston Texans

        QBs: Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Case Keenum, Stephen McGee

        Schaub passed for more than 4,000 yards, starting all 16 games for the Texans last year. Yates picked up starting stripes when Schaub got hurt in 2011, taking first-team snaps in five regular season games and two postseason performances. Keenum hasn’t seen any regular season action but has a stud passing pedigree, breaking records during this college days. McGee was buried on Dallas' depth chart for a few seasons but was actually impressive when he did get time under center.

        Comment


        • #5
          Three most profitable NFL preseason bets
          By JASON LOGAN

          Wagering on NFL preseason games is the sports bettors’ guilty pleasure. Like eating that pizza with the hot dog stuffed inside the crust, it may feel good at the time but you’re going to pay for it later.

          I found myself betting on the NFL preseason during a trip to Las Vegas last August. I cashed in a small wager on the San Diego Chargers over the Green Bay Packers, cheering for Bolts backup QB Jarrett Lee to come through for me in crunch.

          And therein lies the problem with betting on preseason games. My wager was weighing on the play of a quarterback who’s bagging groceries as the 2013 preseason approaches.

          But, if you’re weak like me and need to get down something after months and months of pigskin-less play, these three teams have made the most preseason profits since 1995.

          Seattle Seahawks (41-27 SU, 39-26-3 ATS)

          The Seahawks’ 4-0 SU and ATS 2012 preseason was a forerunner for their regular season success, unearthing QB Russell Wilson as the steal of the NFL Draft. Seattle was a favorite in three of those four games and a short 1-point underdog in the other.

          This year, the Seahawks have high expectations and are among the Super Bowl favorites. Seattle opens the tune-up schedule in San Diego, where oddsmakers have them set as a pick’em. The Seahawks will be busy auditioning WRs after losing Percy Harvin for what could be the entire season.

          New York Jets (41-26 SU, 38-28-1 ATS)

          The Jets entered last summer as the best preseason play since 2005, then proceeded to go 0-4 SU and ATS. New York was outscored 88-31 over those four warmup games, exposing a limp-noodle offense that would finish 30th in the NFL during the regular season.

          It’s more of the same for Jets fans this offseason. Mark Sanchez is fighting off rookie Geno Smith for the starting gig. Reports out of camp say Smith is out of shape, which erases his athletic edge over the competition. New York kicks off the preseason slate in Detroit as 3.5-point road underdogs.

          Denver Broncos (42-26 SU, 38-28-2 ATS)

          The Broncos went 2-2 SU and ATS in last year’s preseason, being the most anticipated team due to the acquisition of Peyton Manning. Denver enters Year 2 with No. 18 under center and is working in some new weapons like WR Wes Welker and rookie RB Montee Ball.

          The elephant in the room this preseason, however, is the Broncos offensive line. Center Dan Koppen went down with an ACL injury and J.D. Walton is recovering from ankle surgery. On top of that, Denver’s front office suffered some black eyes and star LB Von Miller is waiting on an appeal of a four-game suspension.

          Comment


          • #6
            Preseason Report - Part I
            By Tony Stoffo
            VegasInsider.com

            Betting on the NFL preseason is one of the most profitable endeavors you can partake in this football season. The secret to making money in the preseason is the ability to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches are just going through the motions. That factor in itself will give you a huge edge over the sportsbooks year after year.

            Also, I can't say it enough but you also need to be familiar with the history of each team in August. Plus, keeping an eye out on each team's preseason quarterback rotations will also make you turn a nice profit in the preseason. Without further adieu, let's start handicapping!

            Preseason has taken on a new look recently

            The recently signed collective bargaining agreement means more than stability for the next 10 years. The NFL game is undergoing a change because of the new CBA that will change the quality of play in the preseason.

            New rules have modified practice schedules and forced coaches to make changes to their preparation, in these two ways:

            Gone are the grueling two-a-day practices that have long been a staple of training camps. In their place, teams are able to have one full contact padded practice per day accompanied by a walkthrough period. Saying this here are some old and new preseason trends we now have to focus on.

            Teams like the Steelers and Ravens that have shown a strong tendency towards playing under games in the preseason with their aggressive play have now seen this neutralized with the new training rules.

            The oddsmakers have not incorporated this into their posted totals yet for these teams, and have continued to post ultra-low line totals on the Steelers and Ravens – So keep a look out for some value plays on the over this preseason. If I see any spots that stand out I’ll post them in my plays.
            Here are some of my old favorite trends for this upcoming preseason.

            New England – Let’s start off with one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots – Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents – just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean – well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week 3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter. Well again Belichick doesn’t want his regular season Week 1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn’t take this game seriously – and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past five seasons are a perfect 0-5 against the spread in this situation. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots pay a visit to Detroit in their dress rehearsal game.

            Tampa Bay - Every year I wait for the Buccaneers opening preseason game as no matter who the head coach is Tampa Bay always comes out ready to play as in Game 1. In the last 7 years they are a huge money maker going 6-1 against the spread to start the preseason. This year the Buccaneers open up against the Ravens on Aug. 8 - What really makes this a solid play this year is that we all know how the Super Bowl champions really don't give a damn about preseason games - so keep an eye out on this match-up this year.

            Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 4-21 (16%) against the spread over the past six years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for new head coach Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not giving a dame about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid was 1-7 against the spread in his last eight opening preseason game in Philadelphia. Kansas City opens up this year at New Orleans on Aug. 9.

            Atlanta Falcons - One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last eight years the Falcons have gone a perfect 8-0 outscoring their opposition 187-61 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 24 when they play Tennessee on the road.

            Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville has emphasized offense in his opening preseason game as the Jaguars have seen the Over go a perfect 7-0 in their preseason opener since 2006. This year another high-scoring game can be on tap here as the Jaguars with be playing a Dolphins squad coming in off of a short week of preparation as they play in the Hall of Fame game this preseason against the Cowboys on Aug. 5. Just a heads up their new head coach is defensive minded.

            Comment


            • #7
              Preseason Report - Part II
              By Tony Stoffo
              VegasInsider.com

              In my first installment, I touched on some great angles that I’ve been following and cashing for plenty of seasons. In this piece, I’ve listed some new developing trends from the last few preseasons.

              Baltimore Ravens – The usual letdown from the Super Bowl champs should be apparent this preseason, and add in of what I spoke about above with the training camp rule changes – I can see the Ravens playing higher scoring games this preseason. This trend showed up big time last year with three of the four preseason Baltimore games going Over the posted total.

              Buffalo Bills - The Bills have started a money making preseason trend the last three years having seen the Over be the winning side in their last three dress rehearsal games with 38-7, 35-32, and 35-20 finals. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Redskins on Aug. 24th. I have to add here that Washington in their last 2 dress rehearsal games have seen a combined 112 points scored - So this play can turn into a preseason double unit play here on the Over.

              Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have started a solid trend to look for in their first preseason game – it’s apparent that their coaching staff thru the years has put less emphasis on this first game as Carolina is on a five-year run going 0-5 ATS to start the preseason. This year’s opening game will be against a Bears team on Aug. 9 whom will have a new head coach in Marc Trestman who may be looking to impress with a win in his first career game as head coach.

              Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals used to be a team that always played hard in their last preseason game – however maybe it was because they just were playing against a Colts squad back then that just didn’t try in these meaningless preseason games. However in the past three years the Bengals have gone 0-3 against the spread. Something to watch for as once again Cincinnati finishes up with Indianapolis on Aug. 29 as Pagano seems like he wants to win these games.

              Dallas Cowboys - We have some history to look back on here as in 2010 the Cowboys played against the Bengals in the Hall of Fame game. The Dallas offense could just manage three field goals and were held out of the end zone. Romo just played part of the first quarter and threw for just 59 yards. So I look for another conservative game plan from the Cowboys here - What really makes me like another lower scoring game in this spot here is that head coach of the Dolphins Joe Philbin came out last year in the Dolphins first preseason game and also used a vanilla offense game plan as Miami could only put up seven points on the scoreboard. This game has Under written all over it.

              Plus one last think to mention here is that the last time the Cowboys played in the Hall of Fame game and played five preseason games – they sure didn’t try defensively in their final and fifth preseason game as 52 points were scored. Again something to look for this year as they play a Texans team on Aug. 29 that tends to play higher scoring games in their last preseason game.

              Denver Broncos – Since coming over to Denver – John Fox has definitely had the Broncos ready to start the preseason as the result of both of his opening games had the Broncos and the Over being the winning sides - with Denver scoring a combined 55 points and both of these games were on the road. Denver opens up again on the road this year against the 49ers – So the Broncos will be a very live ‘dog in this spot.

              However Fox sure hasn’t cared if the Broncos won in their dress rehearsal games as both have been losing efforts against the San Francisco and Seattle. This year’s dress rehearsal game will be on the Aug. 24 against the Rams.

              Detroit Lions – The Lions have been a solid play in the preseason as of late going a solid 9-3 over the last three seasons – Plus if we get a closer look Detroit has finished the preseason strong going a perfect 3-0 in Game 4 of the preseason. This season the Lions finish up at Buffalo on Aug. 29th.

              Green Bay Packers - Under head coach Mike McCarthy a solid trend has been in effect for years that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide-open game plan over the past six years that has seen the Over go an impressive 16-8 in the preseason. Last year this trend showed a backward trend – which I feel is good for us as I see the oddsmakers lowering these Green Bay totals some this year. You just watch have the Packers come out to start the preseason this year on both sides of the ball.

              Houston Texans – The Texans seem to be fitting in nicely with the new CBA restrictions for the preseason as in the last two years the Kubiack lead Texans have gone 6-2 against the spread. Plus they are a perfect 4-0 in their first two preseason games of the year. This year Houston’s first two games will be against Minnesota on Aug. 9, and then against Miami at home on Aug. 17.

              Indianapolis Colts – The Colts always never tried in these preseason games going back to when Dungy was the head coach, and were a definite fade candidate every year. However when Chuck Pagano was hired as head coach last season things sure changed – as the Colts went 3-1 against the spread while scoring 114 points in the process – which also saw the Over go 3-1. Something to watch this preseason as I feel the oddsmakers will still be releasing lines based on the Colts prior losing ways in the preseason.

              Miami Dolphins – As always when a new head coach is hired we take a step back to see if we can find any preseason trends that we can make some money on. Well with Joe Philbin taking over as the Dolphins coach last season – we sure may have found a strong trend to watch for this preseason – as the Philbin lead Dolphins went a perfect 0-4 both straight up and against the spread last year. Strong watch here especially if the Dolphins start the preseason slow again.

              Minnesota Vikings - With Leslie Frazier now settled in as head coach of the Vikings an early preseason trend has developed with the new CBA rules now in effect. Frazier’s style seems to not put much into the first preseason game for the Vikings – however in game #2 it looks like he tries to win this game – as in the past 2 preseason the Vikings are 0-2 in game #1 – while going 2-0 in Game 2. This year the Vikings open up against Houston on Aug. 9th – then head to Buffalo for Game 2.

              New York Giants – A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past three years has seemed to want to get the Giants last preseason done with in a hurry, which has produced three straight low-scoring games and the undergoing a perfect 3-0. So let’s look for the same result here as Bill Belichick seems very happy to play this kind of game in this scenario when the Giants and Patriots hook up on Aug. 29.

              New York Jets – For the other New York team we have another strong trend that can make us some money this preseason – however this one is in the Jets first preseason game of the year – as head coach Rex Ryan has never liked playing this first preseason game, and I feel the new CBA rules have really effected the Jets a lot – as with reduced hitting in workouts it hurts the Jets physical style especially in Game 1 where the Jets under Ryan are a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Look for more of the same here this year as the Jets open up against a Lions team that likes to win their preseason games.

              New Orleans Saints – Strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high-octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past three seasons the Saints have seen the over go a perfect 6-0 in their last 2 preseason games of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, and 61 points scored. This year the Saints finish up Houston on Aug. 25 and Miami on the Aug. 29.

              Oakland Raiders – This Raiders write-up really should be in my favorite preseason trends – however I’ll leave it in this section for now – Oakland no matter who the head coach is always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past six years they are a perfect 0-6 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 29 against the Seahawks. Just to show you how bad the Raiders have been in this scenario lately the Seahawks have outscored them 41-6 the past two years.

              Pittsburgh Steelers – In Part I of my report, I talked about how the new CBA preseason rules would affect the physical teams in the league, and the Steelers definitely fit into this mold. The change in style was apparent in last year’s preseason as the usually lower-scoring Pittsburgh games – showed a complete turnaround as the Steelers played three high-scoring games and ended the preseason seeing the Over go 3-1. With the oddsmakers still leaning towards the old trends for the Steelers will give us some solid value plays on the over this preseason.

              San Francisco 49ers – With the 49ers just falling short in last year’s Super Bowl we may see a lackluster effort from them this preseason. However with Jim Harbaugh their head coach a repeat of last year’s preseason may be on the horizon where the 49ers went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread. Just watch how San Francisco comes out of the gate this preseason to get a gear on what mindset they have.

              Seattle Seahawks - The new rules sure haven’t affected Pete Carroll and the Seahawks – as Seattle over the past two preseasons have gone 7-1 against the spread. Only thing to watch out for this year is that they will be without their sharp defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.

              St. Louis Rams – The Rams will be a team to watch this preseason as Jeff Fisher always took the preseason seriously when he was with the Titans, and this sure carried over to the Rams in his first season with them as the Rams went 3-1 against the spread last year. Plus I also have to note here is that St Louis saw the Over go 3-1 in their four preseason games a year ago.

              Tennessee Titans – Not too much to look at in Mike Munchak’s start of his coaching career in Tennessee – However I did find that the Titans as a underdog under Munchak have gone 3-1 against the spread the past two years.

              Washington - Mike Shanahan has always taken these preseason games seriously, and a strong trend has developed since his return with the Redskins, and that is that Washington is a perfect 3-0 in their dress rehearsal game since Shanahan has returned dominating their opponent in all three of these games. Washington’s dress rehearsal game this year is against the Bills on Aug. 24.

              Comment


              • #8
                Preseason Report - Part III
                By Tony Stoffo
                VegasInsider.com

                In Part I and II of the Preseason Report, we discussed trends for teams and more importantly, their coaches. As mentioned before, coaching is a key factor in the preseason and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes. This season we have eight coaching changes coming into the 2013 season.

                Here is this year's list:

                Arizona - Bruce Arians - was the former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator - Arians filled in for head coach Chuck Pagano while he battled leukemia, and went 9-3 in his absence.

                Buffalo - Doug Maronne - Syracuse head coach for the past 4 years - his prior NFL experience was with the New Orleans back in 2008 as the Saints offensive coordinator.

                Chicago - Marc Trestman - Former coach of the Montreal Alouettes - NFL experience as an Offensive coordinator for the 49ers and Raiders.

                Cleveland - Rob Chudzinski - Offensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers - however the offense will be turned over to Norv Turner.

                Jacksonville - Gus Bradley - Former defensive coordinator the last four seasons of the league-leading Seahawks defense.

                Kansas City - Andy Reid - head coach of the Eagles the last 14 years.

                Philadelphia - Chip Kelly - head coach of the Oregon Ducks - offensive genius of the Ducks high octane offense - first NFL coaching job.

                San Diego - Mike McCoy - is the former Broncos offensive coordinator for the Broncos and helped lead Denver to the playoffs the past two seasons with two totally different quarterbacks' styles.

                Here are each teams Quarterback Rotations for this Preseason (R - Rookie):

                Arizona - Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Caleb TerBush (R - Purdue)

                Atlanta - Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis, Sean Renfree (R - Duke), Seth Doege (R - Texas Tech)

                Baltimore - Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Caleb Hanie

                Buffalo - Kevin Kolb, EJ Manuel (R - Florida State), Jeff Tuel (R - Washington State)

                Carolina - Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Jimmy Clausen, Colby Cameron (R - La. Tech)

                Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Matt Blanchard

                Cincinnati - Andy Dalton, John Skelton, Josh Johnson, Zac Robinson

                Cleveland - Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer

                Dallas - Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Aaron Corp

                Denver - Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert (R - Miami, OH), Ryan Katz (R - San Diego State)

                Detroit - Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore

                Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, B.J. Coleman

                Houston - Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Stephen McGee, Case Keenum

                Indianapolis - Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish

                Jacksonville - Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Mike Kafka, Matt Scott (R - Arizona)

                Kansas City - Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray (R - Tennessee), Ricky Stanzi

                Miami - Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin

                Minnesota - Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, James Vandenberg (R - Iowa)

                New England - Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Tim Tebow

                New Orleans - Drew Brees, Seneca Wallace, Luke McCown, Ryan Griffin (R - Tulane)

                New York Giants - Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Nassib (R - Syracuse), Curtis Painter

                New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith (R - West Virginia), Greg McElroy, Matt Simms

                Oakland - Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Tyler Wilson (R - Arkansas)

                Philadelphia - Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley (Rookie - USC)

                Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, John Parker Wilson, Landry Jones (R - Oklahoma)

                San Diego - Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Brad Sorensen (R - Southern Utah), Mike Hermann (R - RPI)

                San Francisco - Colin Kaepernick, Colt McCoy, Scott Tolzien, B.J. Daniels (R - South Florida)

                Seattle - Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn, Tarvaris Jackson

                St. Louis - Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Austin Davis

                Tampa Bay - Josh Freeman, Mike Glennon (R - N.C. State), Dan Orlovsky, Adam Weber

                Tennessee - Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rusty Smith, Nathan Enderle

                Washington - Robert Griffin III (Will not play in preseason), Kirk Cousins, Rex Grossman, Pat White

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                • #9
                  Three Most Profitable NFL Preseason 'OVER' Bets

                  NFL teams use the preseason schedule as a chance to stretch their legs, work in new offenses or defenses and fill gaps in the depth chart. All those factors can give totals bettors a headache.

                  Keeping a close eye on the head coach’s gameplan heading into an exhibition game is vital to betting the over/under. And, perhaps knowing which NFL clubs have constantly cashed in for one side or the other is good knowledge to have.

                  We look at the best over bets during the NFL preseason since 1995.

                  Best Preseason 'OVER' Bets

                  Jacksonville Jaguars (41-27 SU, 41-25-2 O/U)

                  The Jaguars posted a 3-0-1 over/under mark during last summer’s preseason tilts, and are 6-1-1 O/U the past two exhibition slates. Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in the league, ranked 30th in yards allowed and 29th in points against in 2012. A QB controversy between Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne and the return of RB Maurice Jones-Drew could spark some life in the Jags offense this preseason.

                  Seattle Seahawks (41-27 SU, 41-26-1 O/U)

                  The Seahawks offense emerge in the second half of the 2012 season, with QB Russell Wilson playing beyond his years. Seattle was hoping to have explosive WR Percy Harvin burning up the sidelines but may have lost its new weapon for the entire season. The Seahawks defense was one of the best in the league last season and with the offense looking to fill the gap in the receiving corps, Seattle may go against the over/under grain this preseason.

                  San Diego Chargers (38-30 SU, 40-27-1 O/U)

                  The Bolts seem like a forgotten team this offseason. Quarterback Philip Rivers has fallen out of favor with fans and could be singing for his supper this year. New head Mike McCoy is picking up the pace in San Diego, introducing a little speed to a Chargers offense that seemed stuck in the mud in 2012. Those no-huddle offenses could keep the points coming and gas out opposing defenses which are yet to get into game shape. The Bolts have gone 2-2 over/under the past three preseasons.

                  Indianapolis Colts (28-39 SU, 39-37-1 O/U)

                  The Colts went 3-1 over/under during Andrew Luck’s first preseason run and proved they belonged among the AFC title contenders, posting the seventh most-potent pass game in the NFL (258 yards per game). Indianapolis added some veteran experience and depth at QB this offseason, bringing in Matt Hasselbeck. He’ll keep the offense clicking after Luck takes a seat in limited preseason action. The Colts were 3-1 O/U during last year’s exhibition calendar.

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                  • #10
                    Strategies on Betting and Beating NFL Preseason
                    By Teddy Covers
                    Sportsmemo.com

                    I write a ‘How to beat the NFL Preseason article’ just about every year. But this is no ‘cut and paste’ from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically.

                    I updated this piece from start to finish last year and have updated it again for 2013, focusing on how the betting markets have changed here in the 21st century and the ways savvy bettors can take advantage of those changes.

                    My goal this week is to debunk some of those aging myths while focusing on strategies that work here in 2013.

                    Coaches vs. Coordinators

                    I used to be very concerned with finding and interpreting a head coach’s comments prior to preseason games. In the modern era of largely innocuous ‘coach-speak’, I’m definitely more interested in what the coordinators are saying. That goes doubly when we’re talking about first year coordinators installing new systems.

                    Neither coordinators nor head coaches are likely to give away tidbits in the regular season. But in the preseason, sometimes they’ll tell you exactly what they’re going to do, allowing you to cash some relatively easy winning bets.

                    Here are a list of the 13 new offensive coordinators around the NFL for the 2013 season: Harold Goodwin, Arizona; Nathaniel Hackett, Buffalo; Mike Shula, Carolina; Aaron Kromer, Chicago; Norv Turner, Cleveland; Adam Gase, Denver; Pep Hamiton, Indianapolis; Jedd Fisch, Jacksonville; Doug Pederson, Kansas City; Marty Mohrninweg, New York Jets; Greg Olson, Oakland; Pat Schurmer, Philadelphia and Ken Whisenhunt, San Diego.

                    The Power of the Blitz

                    Most coaches don’t like to see their star veteran quarterback take big hits in the preseason. I don’t blame them! That simple fact gives teams with aggressive, blitzing defensive schemes a legitimate edge in August.

                    Teams that blitz early and often tend to have preseason success shutting down opposing offenses. Once again, finding out the coordinator’s gameplan can pay real dividends. And it’s surely worth noting that the Saints are only -3 at home against a Kansas City team breaking in a new coach, new quarterback and new offense this Friday Night.

                    The Value of ‘3’

                    NFL bettors are conditioned to think about the pointspread number of + or -3 as being the single most important or ‘key’ number in football betting. That certainly holds true for the regular season, when nearly one out of every seven games finishes with a final margin of three points.

                    But in August, coaches don’t play for overtime. We saw a prime example of that in Week 1 of the preseason last year. Jacksonville rallied from 17 points down against the Giants, scoring their final TD with two minutes left in the fourth quarter.

                    Instead of kicking the extra point to tie the game – making it quite likely that one of the two teams would win by a field goal – Jacksonville head coach Mike Mularkey went for the two point conversion and the win. The Jags made that conversion and won the game by a single point; a great result for line shoppers and a lousy result for the house.

                    This is not unusual in the slightest. And the lesson here is perfectly clear. The value of pointspreads like 1, 1.5, and 2 increase in August, while the value of the almighty -3 declines rather precipitously. Four games were decided by a single point in Week 1 last year, and that Browns-Lions game was decided by two. We didn’t see a single one of the first 16 preseason games in 2012 finish with a three point final margin. It was a similar story in 2011, without a single three point decision in the first two weeks of preseason action.

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                    • #11
                      Three Worst NFL Preseason Week 1 Bets Since 1995
                      By Jason Logan
                      Covers.com

                      Losing an NFL preseason bet is like burning your hand in a fire. You knew it was hot, so why’d you touch it?

                      However, after a long summer stranded in baseball, preseason football is salt water to the shipwrecked sailor. You want to drink it up so bad.

                      If you’re thinking about getting in on the Week 1 preseason action, beware these three teams which have constantly fallen short of the spread during the opening slate of tune-up games. We eye their Week 1 records, going back as far as 1995, and how they look heading into this summer’s preseason:

                      Dallas Cowboys (5-12 SU, 4-13 ATS in Week 1)

                      Dallas didn’t look too bad in the Hall of Fame Game, despite all but four starters sitting out. The new 4-3 defensive scheme ran pretty smoothly for the first time around and the offense got a boost from the running game, which is a big plus. The Cowboys are 2-point favorites in Oakland for Week 1 of the preseason Friday. Quarterback Tony Romo is expected to play limited action as are the majority of Dallas’ first-stringers.

                      Philadelphia Eagles (6-10 SU, 4-10-2 ATS)

                      Former head coach Andy Reid was known for his lack of interest in the preseason and it shows in the Eagles’ Week 1 preseason mark. But now, with new coach Chip Kelly installing his up-tempo offense, Philadelphia may be putting a little more weight into its exhibition slate. The Eagles are 4-point favorites hosting New England Friday, and will likely march out five different QBs by the end of the night.

                      Detroit Lions (9-8 SU, 4-10-3 ATS)

                      There is pressure on coach Jim Schwartz to win right away in 2013, after last year’s disastrous four-win campaign. And that could mean giving more than two craps about the preseason. The Lions will reportedly run a cut-and-dry game plan, not customizing their attack to Week 1 opponents, the New York Jets. Detroit has new RB Reggie Bush atop the depth chart with Mikel Leshoure backing him up. The Lions could stretch the legs and go rush-heavy in order to build their ground game.

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                      • #12
                        Three Best NFL Preseason Week 1 Bets Since 1995
                        By Jason Logan
                        Covers.com

                        Betting on Week 1 of the NFL preseason is a bet on randomness. Teams may or may not play their starters. And if they do, it’s only for a few sets.

                        Second, third and even fourth-string players will decide your fate, so why not wager on teams that have shown some consistency in an otherwise chaotic stretch of schedule.

                        We look at the best Week 1 NFL preseason bets since 1995 and how those teams look heading into the 2013 exhibition calendar.

                        Denver Broncos (10-7 SU, 12-4-1 ATS in Week 1)

                        The Broncos have a laundry list of offseason issues and may be just trying to get through the preseason without adding to those troubles. Reports out of camp state Peyton Manning may see limited action this summer, with the offensive line missing some key cogs. Denver smoked Chicago 31-3 in last year’s preseason opener and is a 3-point underdog at San Francisco this Thursday.

                        Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6 SU, 12-5 ATS in Week 1)

                        When you read headlines like “Bucs Just Hoping To Survive Preseason”, it doesn’t instill the greatest confidence in Tampa Bay bettors. The Buccaneers’ No. 1 priority is making sure everyone sees Week 1, which could mean plenty of play for third and fourth-string scrubs this summer. The Bucs beat Miami 20-7 as 3-point dogs in Week 1 last preseason and are 3-point home faves hosting Baltimore Thursday.

                        Seattle Seahawks (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS in Week 1)

                        Seattle has the same ATS mark in Week 1 as the Titans and Bengals, but we focus on the Seahawks because they seem to give a crap about winning the warm-ups. Last year, Seattle beat Tennessee 27-17 as a 3-point home favorite in Week 1, en route to a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS preseason. This time around, the Seahawks are plugging the hole at WR left by Percy Harvin’s injury. Sidney Rice is also nursing a bum knee, so the Seahawks' passing game could have its wings clipped this preseason. Seattle is a 2.5-point road favorite at San Diego Thursday.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Holy shit, we're back in action for football season! Thank you GAME!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by TheMule View Post
                            Holy shit, we're back in action for football season! Thank you GAME!
                            No problem. Brought it back because of you guys

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              NFL Trends & Angles - Preseason Week 1

                              August 7, 2013

                              The 2013 NFL Preseason has begun, and appropriately it began with an outright upset that could have been easily foreseeable as the Dallas Cowboys beat the Miami Dolphins as three-point underdogs. You see, Miami Coach Joe Philbin entered that contest with an 0-4 career record in preseason while Dallas Coach Jason Garrett went 3-1 last season.

                              When you combine that with the past success of the underdogs in preseason Week 1/Hall of Fame week, and that game was a perfect example of why bettors who refuse to bet on preseason preferring instead to wait until the regular year starts are missing out on a potential gold mine.

                              We may be in the minority, but we have always felt that NFL preseason is easier to beat than the NFL regular season. NFL regular season lines are the tightest lines of any North American sport out of necessity, the NFL is the most popular sport (i.e., most heavily bet), and so the lines need to be sharp. Conversely, we had seen many soft spots over the years in the preseason that looked obvious with just a little bit of research.

                              Each preseason week has its own characteristics, so we will have various approaches as we look at each week individually the next four weeks. Additionally, you should always check the teams' websites each week as another factor that makes preseason easy to beat is that coaches reveal their player rotations and game plans beforehand and then more or less stick to them, making this time of year unique from any other sport.

                              Also, another common theme across the entire preseason is that there are coaches that simply want to win these games, and the motivation of wanting to win is perhaps the single biggest factor in exhibition games.

                              Here are four winning preseason coaches that are always worth a second look:

                              Mike Shanahan (Washington Redskins): Shanahan is now 49-23 straight up in preseason with the Denver Broncos and Redskins combined after going 3-1 with Washington last year, and his teams are 30-18-1, 62.5 percent ATS since 2000.

                              Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): Tomlin is also coming off of a 3-1 preseason, making his a sparkling 19-6 straight up since becoming Pittsburgh's coach in 2007, and we will have more on Tomlin the final week of preseason as he is 6-0 straight up in Week 4..

                              John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): John Harbaugh is 13-7 straight up overall since becoming coach of the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens in 2008, but he is 12-4 straight up and 10-6, 62.5 percent ATS the last four years.

                              Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions): Schwartz is 12-4 straight up and 11-5, 68..8 percent ATS since becoming Detroit coach in 2009, and he may need to continue that preseason success now more than ever to re-instill a winning attitude after the Lions were so dismal in the regular season last year.

                              And now here are some winning Trends & Angles exclusively for preseason Week 1, with all ATS records being over the last 13 preseasons since 2000.

                              Play on all underdogs in Week 1 plus Hall of Fame Week (118-95-11, 55.4% ATS):
                              This record is actually updated up to the second to include the Cowboys' win this past Sunday. Week 1 is the week when the most players get to shuffle in and out of the lineups, with starters hardly playing and many backups getting evaluated. Thus, these games are more like crapshoots so it only makes sense that the underdogs should hold most of the value. Furthermore, Week 1 or Hall of Fame underdogs of +3½ or more are 34-24, 58.6 percent ATS. The Cowboys did not qualify here, but there are currently quite a few dogs listed at +3½ or more for Week 1 coming up, so be on the look-out as these lines move more than regular season lines do and all of our ATS records are based on closing lines.

                              Play the 'under' in Week 1 or Hall of Fame games with totals greater than 35½
                              (42-21-1, 66.7%):
                              There was no play on this angle in this past week's Hall of Fame Game. Because of the sloppiness that can be expected in Week 1 with so many players seeing action, the average combined total score in Week 1 and Hall of Fame games combined since 2000 is 35.7 points, easily the lowest of any preseason week. That average has made the posted total of 35½ the perfect divider when judging totals, as it is the 'over' that is 73-66-2 in games with posted totals of 35½ or less.

                              Week 1 coaches:

                              Starting with the Big Four

                              Shanahan is 13-5 straight up in Week 1 with the Broncos and Redskins

                              Tomlin is 4-3

                              Harbaugh is 4-1

                              Schwartz is 2-2

                              Here are some other notable Week 1 marks.

                              Bill Belichick (New England Patriots, 10-4): Belichick and his Patriots won their preseason opener again last season and he is a lucrative is 9-3-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

                              Rex Ryan (New York Jets, 0-4): More importantly from a betting perspective, Sexy Rexy is also 0-4 ATS as coach of the Jets, as his defensive schemes are obviously much simpler at the outset than they become later on.

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